Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 12th May)

Best Days: Surf Coast Saturday morning, both regions Sunday morning, east of Melbourne Monday through Wednesday

Recap

Excellent conditions all day yesterday as an approaching surface trough stalled, resulting in offshore tending variable winds across both regions as a very inconsistent long-range W/SW groundswell slowly filled in.

The Surf Coast was mainly around 2ft (2-3ft 13th Beach) through the morning with 3-4ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula, building further towards 3ft+ and 5ft respectively.

An onshore change due last night and into this morning hasn't eventuated due to the trough continuing to stall west of us, directing N'ly winds across the state.

We'll see this trough slowly edging east later today, but winds should hold from the NW into the evening again. A new SW swell is due later today and this should keep 2-3ft sets hitting the Surf Coast with 4-5ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula.

This weekend and next week (May 13 - 19)

The new SW groundswell due later today will be the first of two due over the coming days, generated by not overly strong but broad polar frontal activity under the country.

This first SW swell should ease from 2-3ft on the Surf Coast tomorrow morning, with 4-5ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula. Sunday morning will be smaller, but the secondary SW pulse should build back to a similar size Sunday afternoon on both coasts.

Winds are still looking tricky, with the slowly moving surface trough to our west expected to weaken while moving across us tomorrow morning. This should result in light early W/NW winds, tending S/SW mid-late morning but hopefully without too much strength.

Come Sunday the trough will continue to weaken with light variable breezes expected across both coasts before a SE'ly kicks in.

Monday will be a day for the beaches east of Melbourne with small easing surf from 2ft on the Surf Coast and 3ft to occasionally 4ft on the Mornington Peninsula with a morning E/NE breeze. With the lingering trough winds actually may be more variable, so keep an eye on the BOM observations in your region.

Tuesday and Wednesday will be fun on the beaches again with a new inconsistent S/SW groundswell due to fill in through the day Tuesday, peaking into the afternoon and easing Wednesday.

This swell will be produced by a strong polar front generating pre-frontal W/NW gales through our southern swell window. The Surf Coast should build to 2ft to occasionally 3ft through the day, with 3-5ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula, easing Wednesday.

Winds from the north-eastern quadrant will favour the beaches east of Melbourne both Tuesday and Wednesday.

These easterly winds will be a result of broad low pressure system moving in slowly from the Bight, putting a block on our swell windows while also generating some weak E'ly windswell. Once this breaks down there's nothing major on the cards as of yet, but more on this Monday. Have a great weekend!