Plenty of action Sunday but with limited options
Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 5th May)
Best Days: Surf Coast Saturday, Torquay early Sunday, both coasts Wednesday morning
Excellent conditions on the Surf Coast all day with easing sets from 3ft. The Mornington Peninsula was also good with fun 3-5ft waves, smaller later.
This morning we're back to the small stuff with clean fading 2ft sets on the Surf Coast and 3ft waves on the Mornington Peninsula.
This weekend and next week (May 6 - 12)
Moving into tomorrow, a strengthening N/NW wind will create clean conditions on the Surf Coast and small 2ft waves, while the Mornington Peninsula should see OK conditions at dawn and 3ft+ of swell.
Winds will swing more NW late morning and W/NW into the afternoon ahead of a late strong W/SW change.
This change will be related to the remnants of a vigorous polar frontal progression moving in from the southern Indian Ocean under the country.
A moderate to large W/SW groundswell has been generated, with it expected to arrive Sunday morning, building strongly to 4-6ft at exposed breaks on the Surf Coast and the 8ft range on the Mornington Peninsula.
Early morning we're probably looking 3-5ft waves on the Surf Coast and a brief period of W'ly winds around Torquay should create OK conditions before swinging SW. Other locations will be poor with a gusty SW breeze.
Also in the mix will be some average quality mid-period swell from the front moving through later Saturday.
Moving into Monday, both swells should ease off and conditions look average with a gusty S'ly winds. There is a very very slim chance for an early W'ly around Torquay again but the surf will still be quite raw and unorganised.
Into Tuesday, lingering S/SE winds will continue to create poor conditions with easing 3ft sets on the Surf Coast and 4-5ft waves on the Mornington Peninsula.
An approaching front Wednesday will steer winds back to the north and locally offshore but the swell will be small and fading.
As touched on last update, into Thursday a very inconsistent but strong W/SW groundswell is due to fill in across the state.
This swell has started to be generated today, by a very strong and expansive polar frontal progression firing up west of Heard Island.
A fetch of severe-gale to storm-force W/SW tending SW winds will be projected through our far western swell window, with the system weakening south-west of WA early next week, leaving the swell to travel out towards us.
The long-period fore-runners are expected to arrive 24 hours before the peak of the swell (Wednesday afternoon) with the groundswell building slowly through Thursday.
The Surf Coast should build to a very inconsistent 3-4ft with 5-6ft+ sets on the Mornington Peninsula Thursday afternoon. The waits between sets will be in the order of 10-12 minutes.
Winds are still a little up in the air with a surface trough due to bring a S'ly change at some stage but we may see a morning NW'ly ahead of this. More on this Monday. Have a great weekend!