Great weekend, poor next week
Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 3rd February)
Best Days: Both coasts Saturday and Sunday mornings, east of Melbourne Wednesday
A drop in swell yesterday back to 2-3ft on the Surf Coast with good winds for the Torquay region during the morning, bumpy into the afternoon.
Today our first pulse of better W/SW swell has filled in with good 3ft waves around Torquay (4ft sets at 13th Beach) with light offshore winds. The Mornington Peninsula was bigger but bumpier, cleaner on Phillip Island.
This weekend (Feb 4 - 5)
Today's pulse of W/SW groundswell will be reinforced by a similar sized pulse of W/SW swell tomorrow, generated by the second of two fronts pushing under the Bight the last couple of days.
We should see the Surf Coast hanging around a consistent 3ft for the most part, with 5-6ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula, easing back Sunday from 2-3ft and 4-5ft respectively.
Conditions are looking great both mornings with light local offshores tomorrow morning ahead of mid-afternoon sea breezes, similar Sunday but possibly more variable into the mid-late afternoon.
So all in all it's looking like a great weekend of surfing.
Next week onwards (Feb 6 onwards)
Into next week we're looking at a typical summer run of surf, with an onshore change late Sunday due to leave moderate to fresh S/SE winds into Monday, creating poor conditions.
This will also spoil a small increase in new mid-period SW swell.
In the wake of the change a strong high will sit to our south, with strong E/SE winds being directed through our swell window from Tuesday through early Wednesday.
This will kick up some junky SE windswell for the Surf Coast on Tuesday afternoon, easing through Wednesday as winds swing E/NE.
The Surf Coast should see 2-3ft waves early Wednesday morning, while the Mornington Peninsula will offer similar sized peaky waves with a small easing SW swell in the mix.
Thursday will be cleaner on the Surf Coast with a NW offshore but tiny, while onshore winds will kick in late morning again.
Longer term there's hints of some better swell from next weekend from a broad polar low and embedded fronts, but winds with this are looking average and onshore. More on this Monday, have a great weekend and make the most of the clean conditions and swell!