Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 12th August)

Best Days: Surf Coast Sunday and Monday (east of Melbourne into the afternoon), both coasts Tuesday

Recap

Not as much as size as expected across the Surf Coast, with the westerly bias looking to have knocked off a touch more size than ideal. Sets were around 3ft but inconsistent with decent conditions most of the day around Torquay. The Mornington Peninsula was solid but average.

A reinforcing pulse yesterday afternoon has kept good sets hitting the coast this morning with 3ft waves around Torquay, better 3-4ft sets at 13th Beach and Fairhaven while the Mornington Peninsula was solid to 5-6ft but clean as a whistle.

This weekend and next (Aug 13 - 19)

We've got a great looking Sunday ahead on the Surf Coast, but before that we have to get through tomorrow.

This morning's swell should ease into this afternoon, back further tomorrow with 2ft+ waves left at exposed breaks on the Surf Coast and 3-5ft waves on the Mornington Peninsula.

A W/NW wind will leave the Surf Coast with the only decent conditions.

Into Sunday, our strong W/SW groundswell is still on track, with an initial mid-latitude low firing up south-west of WA setting in motion an active sea state for a much better fetch of severe-gale pre-frontal W/NW winds to move over, then followed by severe-gale W/SW winds.

This should generate a moderate to large W/SW groundswell, filling in Sunday and peaking later in the day.

The Surf Coast should build from 3-4ft+ early, towards 4-5ft through the day with the possibility for the odd bigger one on dark. The Mornington Peninsula should build from 6ft+, towards 8ft into the afternoon but with W/NW winds, favouring the Surf Coast.

A drop in size from 4-5ft and 6-8ft respectively is due Monday under N/NW tending N'ly winds. Keep an eye on the Portsea Cam for signs of improvement into the afternoon.

Another pulse of W/SW groundswell is due Tuesday morning, easing through the day and this will be another long-period number.

On the backside of the weekend's activity another pre-frontal fetch of W/NW gales will then form into a deep low, with a fetch of storm to hurricane-force W'ly winds developing as the low tracks unfavourably to the east-southeast.

This will produce a moderate to large W/SW groundswell for Tuesday morning, back to 4-5ft across the Surf Coast and 6-8ft on the Mornington Peninsula under N/NW winds.

A drop in size is expected through the afternoon, steadying Wednesday from another reinforcing pulse of W/SW energy.

An onshore change is on the cards at some stage Wednesday though as a weak trough moves across us.

Longer term more W/SW energy is due into next weekend, but more on this Monday. Have a great weekend.

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