Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 27th July)

Best Days: Surf Coast Thursday and Friday, both coasts Saturday, Surf Coast Sunday, both coasts Monday, Surf Coast Tuesday

Recap

A large strong building W/SW groundswell yesterday coming in around 5-6ft through the morning on the Surf Coast under offshores, kicking larger into the afternoon as winds tended more N'ly. This opened up options to the east for super advanced surfers into the afternoon with the large swell.

Overnight the swell has eased back steadily with the Cape Sorell buoy on a steady decline, as the longer-period energy from the initial stages of the storm linked to yesterday's swell filled in.

3-5ft sets were seen on the Surf Coast as an onshore change moved in around dawn, while the Mornington Peninsula was larger but with very limited options. Another front approaching through the day should swing winds more W'ly late afternoon, creating improving conditions at selected locations.

This week and weekend (Jul 28 - 31)

Our current mix of long-range and medium-range groundswell energy will continue to ease into tomorrow across both coasts. This will be slowed by a reinforcing SW groundswell moving in, generated by a strengthening frontal system pushing in and across Tassie this afternoon and evening.

The Surf Coast should hold around 3-4ft most of the day, easing back from 3ft Friday morning, with 6ft sets across the Mornington Peninsula tomorrow, smaller into Friday.

Winds will be favourable all day on the Surf Coast with a W/NW offshore tomorrow and most of Friday, possibly more W'ly into the afternoon.

Our reinforcing pulse of SW groundswell for Friday afternoon has now been pushed back to Saturday, with another strengthening mid-latitude storm moving in under the country tomorrow due to generate a small pre-frontal fetch of W/NW gales, followed by a better aligned post-frontal SW fetch.

3-4ft sets are again due across swell magnets on the Surf Coast during the morning, up to 6ft on the Mornington Peninsula as winds improve for locations east of Melbourne under a freshening N/NE breeze. The Surf Coast should be good at most breaks with N/NW winds persisting most of the day.

Sunday will be smaller and W/NW winds will favour the Surf Coast (likely easing from 2-3ft).

Next week onwards (Aug 1 onwards)

From early next week we'll see increasing levels of W/SW groundswell energy owing to a series of vigorous polar fronts firing up and into WA under the influence of a strong node of the Long Wave Trough over the weekend.

This activity will push east through early to mid-next week, with a cold pool of cold air in the upper atmosphere likely resulting in a surface low forming and stalling in our vicinity, generating tricker pulses of surf.

Firstly though a vigorous mid-latitude front pushing in from the Bight and towards us Friday evening and Saturday should produce a moderate sized W/SW swell that may be seen later Sunday, with a peak Monday morning to 3ft+ on the Surf Coast and 6ft on the Mornington Peninsula under strengthening N'ly winds.

Into Tuesday longer-period and less consistent WSW groundswell is due from the initial stages of this front through the Indian Ocean with slightly stronger 3-4ft sets expected on the Surf Coast. Beyond this its too tricky, so we'll have another look at the charts on Wednesday.