The coming period remains slow but there are a couple of clean mornings with fun, small surf.
Late in the week, a combination of inland upper trough and a long angled trough extending from TC Lola remnants is expected to form a powerful surface low off the sub-tropical NSW Coast (likely between Lord Howe and Norfolk Is). As modelled, gales will produce a large E’ly quadrant swell event, with maximum size in Northern NSW, grading smaller into temperate NSW. A secondary October surprise that looks to be a major swell producer
The coming week will be poor, windy and stormy until things improve and settle from later week.
The current swell will ease steadily as winds go onshore this afternoon, windy offshore tomorrow but gone. More swell with lots of wind is due mid-week.
Much better odds for surf as a strong SE surge builds up the coast Fri, with a broad SE fetch in the Coral Sea over next weekend and into early next week. That should see rideable surf develop Fri and hold in the fun-sized range into the weekend and potentially early week after.
Passing lows and troughs will bring varying winds and swell pulses. There are windows to work around though.
Much better odds for surf as a strong SE surge builds up the coast Fri, with a broad SE fetch in the Coral Sea over next weekend and into early next week. That should see rideable surf develop Fri and hold in the fun-sized range into the weekend and potentially early week after.
The fetch is very broad, basically the entire lower Tasman covered in gales under current modelling. That suggests plenty of size from the S-S/SE Thurs, persisting into Fri.
The coming period remains lack lustre swell wise with early next week looking the best ahead of next weekend.
The potential TC is unlikely to be a swell source but there is one modelled track where it briefly pushes into the swell window between Vanuatu and New Caledonia, offering some potential for NE-E/NE swell Thurs/Fri. Very low confidence at the moment and likely to be swamped by dominant S-S/SE swell in the event it does occur. We’ll revisit on Mon.
