Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 10th May)

Best Days: Surf Coast through the period, east of Melbourne at selected breaks Saturday and Monday

Recap

Small to tiny clean waves across the Surf Coast during the morning before some weak windswell started kicking through the mid-late afternoon but with no real quality.

Today the better groundswell from yesterday's strong mid-latitude and frontal system has filled in with good 4-5ft+ waves across the Surf Coast and larger messy waves on the Mornington Peninsula. Conditions should remain clean all day west of Melbourne as the swell eases just a touch through the afternoon (Cape Sorell is still steady which is a good sign for solid waves all day).

This week and weekend (May 12 - 15)

This morning's swell was the first in a series of strong pulses due over the coming days, with a secondary moderate to large W/SW tending SW groundswell due to fill in tomorrow and then ease slowly Friday.

This is being generated by a drawn out frontal system currently to our south-west. A fetch of severe-gale to sub-storm-force SW winds on the frontal systems tail is being projected towards, with severe-gale W/SW winds at its head, moving in through this afternoon and evening.

What we should see is a moderate to large sized W/SW groundswell for tomorrow morning, again to the 4-5ft+ range, with the SW groundswell arriving later in the day, kicking to a larger 5-6ft, and then easing from 4-5ft+ Friday morning on the Surf Coast (6ft sets Bells and Winki).

The Mornington Peninsula will see large 8ft sets tomorrow morning, maybe a touch bigger later in the day and then easing from the 8ft range Friday morning.

Conditions will be best on the Surf Coast through tomorrow with a fresh and gusty but easing W/NW breeze, and then moderate to fresh NW winds Friday.

Our larger long-period pulse for Saturday morning across the state has changed, with the front that was expected to generate this now being weaker and just generating a healthy fetch of W/NW gales through our swell window, over an active sea state.

This will just keep the surf up around 3-4ft Saturday morning on the Surf Coast while another slight pulse is due into the afternoon to 3-5ft from a tight fetch of severe-gale to storm-force W/NW winds. The Mornington Peninsula should see 6ft+ sets, increasing to 6-8ft through the afternoon.

Conditions will remain clean on the Surf Coast with a moderate to fresh NW breeze (N/NW through the morning on the Mornington Peninsula).

Sunday is due to be smaller but not below 3ft+ on the Surf Coast and 6ft on the sets across the Mornington Peninsula with a NW tending W'ly and possibly W/SW breeze.

Next week onwards (May 16 onwards)

Into Monday a strong long-period but very inconsistent W/SW groundswell is due. This started to form west of Heard Island by a vigorous polar frontal progression aligned poorly in our swell window.

This progression is moving further east more favourably into our swell window while generating a better and slow moving fetch of gale to severe-gale W/SW winds.

This swell should arrive through Monday and build into the afternoon to an inconsistent 3-4ft on the Surf Coast and 6ft to occasionally 8ft on the Mornington Peninsula. In the morning though some short-range W/SW energy is due from a front moving through close to us Sunday. This should provide 2-3ft waves on the Surf Coast and 5-6ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula. N/NW winds will provide plenty of options ahead of a W/NW'ly Tuesday.

Into next week the frontal progressions will continue through our western swell window, with a building mid-period W/SW swell due through Tuesday ahead of a larger groundswell later in the day/Wednesday, but more on this Friday.