Craig

Great outlook for the Rip Curl Pro

Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 21st March)

Best Days: Tuesday east of Melbourne (Surf Coast from mid-late morning), both coasts Wednesday, Friday and Saturday mornings Surf Coast, both coasts Sunday, Surf Coast Monday morning

Recap

The strong onshore change Friday whipped up a solid increase in short-range windswell into the afternoon, and with winds from the W/SW, conditions were workable on the protected reefs and beaches for keen surfers on the Surf Coast.

This swell eased back rapidly overnight, with two pulses of SW groundswell filling in through the day, offering 3ft sets across the Surf Coast (bigger at 13th Beach) with an early light W'ly and poor onshore conditions to the east.

Sunday was much better east of Melbourne as winds tended more E'ly along with a solid 4-6ft of easing SW groundswell, while 13th Beach and Fairhaven were the pick on the Surf Coast with easing 3ft+ sets.

Today the surf is smaller and E/SE winds are creating poor conditions on the Surf Coast, and average waves to the east.

This week and weekend (Mar 22 - 27)

There's been no real change to the strong long-period SW groundswell due tomorrow morning, with satellite observations picking up 50kt+ core wind speeds around a vigorous polar low over the weekend.

This swell should peak through the morning with solid 3-4ft sets due across most breaks, with bigger bombs at swell magnets like Bells and 13th Beach. The Mornington Peninsula should see 6ft to occasionally 8ft sets across exposed beaches.

Conditions will be best east of Melbourne with a moderate but easing E/NE tending N/NE wind ahead of weak afternoon sea breezes.

The Surf Coast should improve through the day though with that early E/NE'ly due to tend variable and possibly light N'ly ahead of afternoon sea breezes.

Wednesday looks super fun across both coasts with local offshores ahead of an afternoon S/SW change. The Surf Coast should ease back from the 3ft range on the sets, with 4-5ft+ waves on the Mornington Peninsula.

A temporary low point in swell activity is due Thursday morning, ahead of a series of strong SW groundswells from the afternoon, through the weekend.

These swells will be produced by a flurry of strong back to back frontal activity under the influence of a weak node of the Long Wave Trough.

An initial and relatively weak but strengthening front moving in from the west will create an active sea state for a stronger system to piggy-back over the top of. This secondary system will produce a fetch of severe-gale W/SW winds, possibly reaching the storm-force range at its core, generating a moderate sized SW groundswell for Thursday afternoon, holding Friday morning.

The Surf Coast should build to a good 3-4ft into the afternoon, with bigger bombs at Bells/Winki, holding a similar size Friday morning. The Mornington Peninsula is due to reach 6ft+.

The surf shouldn't ease too much through the day, ahead of another strong SW groundswell pulse for Saturday.

This will be generated by a broad and elongated fetch of gale to severe-gale W/NW winds moving in over the back of the active sea state generating Thursday/Friday's swell, followed by a stronger post-frontal fetch of severe-gale SW winds.

A long-period and strong SW groundswell should be generating, peaking Saturday afternoon, easing Sunday.

Size wise, the Surf Coast should build to 5-6ft through Saturday, with the Mornington Peninsula in the 6-8ft range (Saturday afternoon). A slow easing trend is then expected Sunday and further Monday.

The Surf Coast will be the pick Friday and Saturday with morning NW offshores, swinging SW through the afternoons, with Sunday looking great across both coasts with a N/NE tending N/NW breeze ahead of an approaching front.

As the swells ease Monday, early W/NW winds ahead of a SW change will favour the Surf Coast again.

Longer term there's signs of a large groundswell event next week, but more on this Wednesday.

Comments

Gary G's picture
Gary G's picture
Gary G commented Monday, 21 Mar 2016 at 1:12pm

Gary has a great outlook every Rip Curl Pro, regardless of the surf forecast

I’ve created a monster. Cause nobody wants to ride faceys no more, they want Gary; I’m chopped liver.

But if ya want Gary this is what I’ll give ya: a little creatine kiss from a hard licker

southey's picture
southey's picture
southey commented Monday, 21 Mar 2016 at 6:18pm

Gary , If i don't see you on the Podium handing out the trophy's this year .
I'll be barricading the Exits ....

" SA's Reserve Capacity "

wellymon's picture
wellymon's picture
wellymon commented Monday, 21 Mar 2016 at 8:00pm

haha Southey.

He's a big tanned unit remember, some well constructed barricade will have to suffice!

Our brains are too small at the moment to comprehend the reality of what's happening in our forests . We're only just waking up so to speak . The big problem is we think we know everything, we are specks of dust on a timeline and we know nothing .

southey's picture
southey's picture
southey commented Monday, 21 Mar 2016 at 8:49pm

I'm sure I can Engineer something Welly . I've I found that Mirrors usually works for extra big units .
Besides , failing that fake tan helps conductivity of Tasers ! ;-)

" SA's Reserve Capacity "

Gary G's picture
Gary G's picture
Gary G commented Tuesday, 22 Mar 2016 at 11:22am

Last time I was on stage to hand out the trophies, the surfers thought that my shiny golden torso was the prize and kept trying to give Gaz's bell a good ring.

It got awkward, I gotta tell you. After seeing Adriano ring it off the mounting a few years ago I was a bit nervous myself.

Gary is out of vic this weekend and generally stays out of the way of the Pros as per Southey - zigging where others zag (or as Gaz likes to say: deadlifting where others squat). Would have been nice to see Gary Gary Florence surf average Winki on the weekend though, don't know if there would be enough room in the lineup for Gary AND Gary Gary though.

Speaking of pros - any having a sniff around your private areas today Southey??

I’ve created a monster. Cause nobody wants to ride faceys no more, they want Gary; I’m chopped liver.

But if ya want Gary this is what I’ll give ya: a little creatine kiss from a hard licker

southey's picture
southey's picture
southey commented Tuesday, 22 Mar 2016 at 9:05pm

No celebrities of note Gary . Plenty of local characters though . Not so private areas were sniffed , unfortunately it was a bit sketchy as it kept coming from the wrong direction . Too South for Southey today . If only the wind was a little more co opera table . Bloody small overnight cloud band fucked any chance of a land breeze in one area . Already heard word that the local pro's scored wobbly 6ft + comp . Site . I'm a little skeptical of that bug I'm sure I will be corrected . Fuck it was a straight swell , pity .

" SA's Reserve Capacity "

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno commented Tuesday, 22 Mar 2016 at 5:57pm

Well that was powerful today. 18s or 19s period? My takeaway impression was the sheer distance between each of the lines, like being in a 50m pool of whitewater paddling out. Knackered.