Great weekend on the Surf Coast
Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 26th February)
Best Days: Surf Coast Saturday and Sunday mornings, Tuesday morning east of Melbourne
Recap
Fun clean small waves around 2ft on the Surf Coast yesterday with onshore bumpy slops to the east.
Today a new SW groundswell is on the build across both regions with the Surf Coast offering the best conditions along with 3ft sets. The swell should reach 4-5ft this afternoon and 8ft on the Mornington Peninsula but winds are due to swing onshore from the W/SW late morning.
This weekend (Feb 27 – 28)
This afternoon's SW groundswell should ease back through tomorrow, and the reinforcing W/SW swell due through tomorrow has been downgraded a touch. This is due to the embedded low producing it now just being a secondary fetch of strong to gale-force W/SW winds through our swell window.
We should still see good 3-4ft sets across the Surf Coast through the morning, with the odd bigger one likely at swell magnets early, easing through the afternoon and further down from 2-3ft Sunday morning.
The Mornington Peninsula should ease back from 6ft to occasionally 8ft early tomorrow, further down from 4-6ft Sunday morning.
The Surf Coast will be the best option all weekend with morning W/NW-NW breezes, tending SW through the day.
Next week onwards (Feb 29 onwards)
Monday's good pulse of SW groundswell has been downgraded a touch as well, as instead of an intense polar low we're now due to only see a good pre-frontal fetch of W/NW gales through our swell window.
Still, a fun pulse to 3ft is due across the Surf Coast Monday morning with 5-6ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula but with average S/SE winds.
Tuesday will be the best and east of Melbourne as the swell eases from 3-4ft with morning offshore N/NE winds.
Wednesday morning should be clean again but tiny.
There's nothing too significant due into the end of the week besides a short-lived pulse of W/SW swell Friday with what looks to be favourable winds, but more on this Monday. Have a great weekend!
Comments
Craig,
With all due respect, and in appreciation that you guys work hard and provide a free forecast, I think "Great Weekend" is overcooking things a bit. It went onshore around 8 a.m. here on a wobbly 3foot swell and looks to be staying like that for the rest of today and Sunday. A great weekend IMO would see northwesterlies or northerlies on a 6 ft. or bigger straight swell. Maybe I am getting old and picky but I looked at it this morning (and yesterday morning) and didn't think it was worth a surf. It was definitely rideable but with the crowds and swinging SW, not anywhere near what I'd call "great". Sunday looks shitfull with southerlies and less swell. You guys maybe spread the butter a bit thick for me, maybe I'm a bit glass half empty, I don't know, but if I had to travel to get to the Surfcoast expecting "great" waves this weekend I'd be pretty disappointed.
"A great weekend IMO would see northwesterlies or northerlies on a 6 ft. or bigger straight swell."
That would be an 'Epic' day of waves. Way better than 'Great', even better than 'Excellent' (not that we have a sliding scale of adjectives, because we don't).
As of midday today, average wind speeds at Aireys Inlet have been under 7kts all morning, varying in direction from the NW to the S.
This is classified as 'light and variable', and subsequently conditions are pretty clean on the surface. See attached surfcam grabs as evidence.
It's also worth keeping in mind that forecast thresholds for surf quality move around, depending on the season. Sure, these current conditions might be tilted a little more towards 'average' during the winter months. But clean overhead surf on the reefs in February with water temps around 20 degrees, following a pretty dreary couple of months of waves?
I reckon 'Great' sums it up perfectly.
Those fotos aren't really a great back up for your claim of a great weekend mate, is that Winkipop?
East coast is having a great weekend of waves, but not that joint.
Did you read my commnets above the surfcam stills?
The surfcam pics are from Torquay and 13th Beach. As our cams are set to pre-defined locations, it's hard to take an aesthetically pleasing image like you can with a hand-held camera - theses images were merely there to point out that conditions were prettty good.
Is 3-4 foot also smaller in the summertime?
Wow. Didn't have to look too hard to have a great surf this morning. Well overhead, smooth surface and warm water. Pretty good call for February and looked to pulse this afternoon but onshore kicked in a bit.
Heard it was good down vicco this morn
"Great weekend"? Maybe worth getting wet if you were down there but didn't look great anywhere. Maybe a bit of fun or if you were in the right place at sparrowfart this morning it could have been good. But great? Nah, overcooked, overhyped.
Gawd, really can't please some people!
Looks unreal on the Surf Coast again this morning - down a little in size from yesterday but super clean on the surface. Smooth head high sets on the reefs, certainly can't complain for February.
Maybe some people just dont know how to utilise conditions? I had a 'great' surf, short but sweet simply due to to time constraints.
Maybe Ben should be less vague in telling people where to surf in his forecasts?
Surfed yesterday morning and this morning. Would probably describe it as good rather than great. As Ben said though, in the context of summer you're pretty happy with those conditions.
Never underestimate your powers though Ben - when you forecast 'great conditions' there's a very clear correlation between your words and the volume of people in the water in the first hour after dawn!
Fuck its all up to the individuals perspective. One persons Good could be another persons average or epic depending on what they are after doesn't really matter. My perspective on swellnet weekend reports for vic is it tells every surfer from Melbourne what coast to drive to.
So true, Nick if you really love to surf you would learn as much as one can regarding every aspect of surfing. As for conditions leaning swell hight and a swell periods effect on breaks can be very useful. I had a couple of good sessions and thought the forecast to be in the ball park, I do wonder how this forcast impacted the decision making of the Melb hoard. I don't really care where you come from but for everyone's sake have some etiquette please.
etiquette...........................That's so nineteen hundreds :-D
Hako o hakonde , what does your name mean ?
I 'm not sure myself, so let it be what you want it to be.
I know what it means.
Oh .. okay it translates to "two dogs are a blessing", it doesn't really mean anything.
I doubt zenegain would get the cryptic meaning which is just a personel thing between me and a mate.
Don't mean to be picky but are you sure about that?
I read it differently.
Your being picky, leave it be. Don't be a smartypants.
What about your name Hollywood? I shared a flat in Spain with a bloke called Hollywood, it suited him, does it paint a picture of you?
Calm down precious, my Japanese is far from good, I just double checked with my wife that's all. If you want it to mean what you said then peace be with you.
And Hollywood? Far far from it:)
No bad blood here man.
Na, I was talking to the guy that originally asked the question "methollywood"
Your touchy aren't you zenagain, I know exactly what it means, nothing.
Just call me Hako,first time caller long time listener :-)
Two dogs fucking seems more appropriate...
Are you generally like this around happy hour mate?
Why is it that every time I start a thread in these forums it ends up in a discussion on Japanese Rooting Dogs?!!
I'm over it.
Yeah, that's just how life goes :)
Aw c'mon Adam, you posted once and said the waves weren't that flash. Compared to the East coast atm I'd have to agree with you but some of those screen grabs posted up have some half decent waves with pretty good surface conditions. And compared to what I've stared at this weekend, it's pretty bloody good. I bet if you drove around you would have scored a pretty good sesh.
How did you go?
Shouldn't it read Boku instead of biki .?
No, Biki. But thanks for caring, though I have to question , why would you?
I don't know Japanese from Korean . But I took it to mean " I can take two dogs in my box " , of which I presumed you were /are female . Of which I'm impressed or bewildered . Which I'll leave up to you .....
BUT that's coming from a bloke that only knows two short sentences of Swedish .
" Yea may enshuce " and then closely followed by " ta arv clare de nah " .......
Yeah so cultural references , and customs are not my strong point . Mind you " Sauna " is pretty much universal .
etiquette...........................That's so nineteen hundreds :-D
Seems true these days, just like manners with many of the younger folk. Seems it has disappeared along with many other pleasantries. Best way to aviod many of those with no respect is go for a dawn patrol due to many of them likely being hungover or to lazy to get out of bed before 8:00am.
Generally my definition of Great is whenever Gary is in the water.
If Gary's in the water, things are pretty great even if the waves aren't really coming to the G party.
There were some easy 6ft sets out at Winki/Bells Saturday morning. Light cross offshore and warm water. Uppers at Winki was a bit bumpy/rippy, lowers was clean.
Crowded though, as always.
Is it really worth critiquing the usage of the word 'great'? I mean, is there an official scale between average, good, great, epic, all time?