Craig

Good early Saturday morning, then Surf Coast Monday morning

Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 12th February)

Best Days: Early Saturday morning both coasts, Monday morning Surf Coast

Recap

Wednesday's kick in swell held well into yesterday morning with more than workable conditions under light onshore winds.

Today we were in betweens wells with a moderate onshore breeze at dawn which eased back through the morning creating OK conditions for keen surfers across exposed breaks.

A new SW groundswell is due to build through the afternoon although with fresher onshores, and the Cape Sorell buoy observations are in line with this.

This weekend and next week (Feb 13 - 19)

This afternoon's increase in SW groundswell is due to peak overnight, but tomorrow morning will still be fun with easing 2-3ft sets on the Surf Coast and 4-5ft waves on the Mornington Peninsula.

Update: The change looks to be earlier now, with dawn N'ly winds, shifting NW by 8am and then onshore from the W/SW late morning. 

Therefore go the early on the Mornington Peninsula, while you'll have more time up your sleeve on the Surf Coast.

Saturday afternoon's onshore change will be linked to an approaching frontal system on the back of a deepening low pressure system to our south-west today.

The deepening low has fizzled a touch further since the start of the week with a new SW swell Sunday due to only reach 3ft or so later in the day on the Surf Coast and 4-5ft+ on the Mornington Peninsula, much smaller early.

Winds will only be favourable for the Surf Coast Sunday with an early W/NW'ly ahead of a gusty SW change.

Of greater importance is the secondary front firing up behind the low, with a healthy fetch of strong W/SW winds due to be projected ideally through our swell window and over an active sea state.

A good pulse of W/SW groundswell should result for Monday, peaking to 3-4ft on the Surf Coast and 5-6ft+ on the Mornington Peninsula, easing later in the day.

Conditions are looking good for the Surf Coast through the morning with a light W/NW'ly tending SW through the day. Remaining locations will be bumpy with a SW breeze all day.

A temporary low point in swell is due overnight Monday, but another similarly tracking and strong front moving in early next week should produce a new pulse of SW swell for Tuesday afternoon, back to 3-4ft and 5-6ft+ respectively.

Winds however are due to become poor as the front generating this swell forms into a deepening low pressure system below Tassie, bringing onshore S/SW winds Tuesday, S'ly Wednesday and then S/SE into Thursday and Friday as it stalls in the Tasman Sea.

This will also spoil further pulses of SW swell, but more on this Monday. Have a great weekend!

Comments

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone commented Friday, 12 Feb 2016 at 1:16pm

Ive got a feeling this will be a good example of morn pen doing her thang. Fucking us over. NW from crack of i dawn i sense.

I am the bone

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Friday, 12 Feb 2016 at 1:21pm

Should be good dawn, prob N/NW by 8am though..

Average's picture
Average's picture
Average commented Friday, 12 Feb 2016 at 1:56pm

Crowd forecast for Saturday morning : high/extreme

Chicinho's picture
Chicinho's picture
Chicinho commented Friday, 12 Feb 2016 at 3:55pm

Mornington looks a waste of time, strong cross from dawn onwards. Latest model has onshore on Surf Coast from 'brunch' ish but not too strong! Morning in the west or bust I'd say. I'm but an amateur reader mind but ready to jockey for the good ones then slop too.

Irelandeses

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Friday, 12 Feb 2016 at 4:58pm

** Latest updates have the change in earlier.

So it's a dawn session on the Mornington Peninsula with N'ly winds, swinging NW by around 8am and then onshore late morning.

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone commented Saturday, 13 Feb 2016 at 8:05am

Yup. Pretty spot in. Is there any chance of seabreezes today?

I am the bone

mackdog's picture
mackdog's picture
mackdog commented Friday, 12 Feb 2016 at 7:22pm

Swellnet bus headed from Melbourne express to SurfCoast arriving at 7:00. I'd be a rich man if I was selling tickets haha.

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno commented Saturday, 13 Feb 2016 at 9:18am

Oh for the days of the old 96fm pre-recorded phone surf forecast back in Perth...
"It's 1 foot slop, down on the beaches, bit of a grovel today"
The rare day they forgot the report, or were late with it, you put your foot to the floor and got down ASAP as you knew it was (relatively) smoking...

Craig do you reckon you could sleep in with a few reports this autumn? Get the algo's on the models to sleep in as well?

tango's picture
tango's picture
tango commented Saturday, 13 Feb 2016 at 11:53am

I'm with VJohnno.....and maybe draw the line at "Therefore go the early on the Mornington Peninsula, while you'll have more time up your sleeve on the Surf Coast."

No wonder the muppet factor is off the richter....whatever happened to paying your frickin dues? I was saying to a mate yesterday that I use these reports more as a crowd predictor than a surf predictor. Shame, that.

Irony duly noted.

Stok's picture
Stok's picture
Stok commented Saturday, 13 Feb 2016 at 2:01pm

Ahhhhh another weekend with reasonable conditions....another set of whingers complaining about crowds.

Firstly, remember that if you choose to paddle out, you are part of the crowd.

Secondly, it's a 30 degree summers day, and essentially every forecast site was showing light offshores in the morning with a small swell - it always was going to be crowded.

Finally, The Victorian coast is huge, if you really want to avoid the crowds you easily can. I surfed a quite well known point to myself for half an hour this morning before I was joined by a maximum of 5 other surfers. It wasn't by any means pumping, but I got my fill of waves and there were a few fun head high sets. It was also oil slick glass and I was in boardshorts, can't complain!

Maybe instead of assuming that you've paid your dues, and deserve respect/more waves, you should travel away from your overcrowded local, and start paying your dues somewhere else?

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno commented Sunday, 14 Feb 2016 at 6:19pm

I say most of it in jest stok; completely agree with you about going slightly further afield. We've enjoyed some absolutely magic sessions even on days when the coast is well populated. These truly are the good 'ol days. Once you've competed with 70 at Trigg Pt with the takeoff zone the size of a car bonnet and one good wave to ride on the stretch, superbank is cruisy, Vicco is a cakewalk

Stok's picture
Stok's picture
Stok commented Sunday, 14 Feb 2016 at 10:55pm

Apologies Johnno - missed your jest!

I do always wonder why people choose to paddle out when a spot is already well above capacity.