Clean easing surf over the weekend, average until Wednesday next week
Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 18th December)
Best Days: Monday both coasts, Tuesday and Wednesday east of Melbourne
Cleaner conditions yesterday morning but with no real size across the Surf Coast and inconsistent 2ft+ waves on the Mornington Peninsula.
Today a better long-range W/SW groundswell pulse has filled in as expected with clean 2ft sets on the Surf Coast and 4ft waves on the Mornington Peninsula.
This weekend and next week (Dec 19 - 25)
Today's inconsistent W/SW groundswell is due to ease back through tomorrow from a similar 2ft on the Surf Coast and the 3-4ft range on the Mornington Peninsula under light local offshore winds across both coasts.
Conditions should remain favourable until midday, and even early afternoon, with a freshening inland NW breeze possibly suppressing the sea breeze. Keep an eye on the cams and local observations for decent conditions most of the day!
Sunday will be clean again with a fresh morning N'ly wind but the swell will be tiny on the Surf Coast and only around 3ft+ or so on the Mornington Peninsula. A strong SW change is due late morning/midday so get in early for the best of it.
Early next week's swell has fallen apart a little more since Wednesday with an intense mid-latitude low forming off the south-west tip of WA today being too far north to generate any decent W'ly swell for us.
Instead we're relying on the secondary intensification as it tracks east-southeast and deepens directly south-west of us during Sunday.
With this a short-lived burst of strong to gale-force SW winds will be aimed through our swell window as the low continues tracking south-east.
This isn't favourable at all, and now only a small kick in mid-period SW swell is due through Monday, building to a messy 2-3ft on the Surf Coast with fresh and gusty but easing SW winds, and 5-6ft on the Mornington Peninsula.
The swell should ease through Tuesday from a similar size but with onshore SE winds.
Improving conditions are expected across the Mornington Peninsula into Wednesday and further Thursday with easing 3-4ft sets on the former, and inconsistent 2-3ft sets on the later.
Longer term a series of strong polar fronts firing up south-west of WA under the influence of the Long Wave Trough should produce some better W/SW groundswell for Christmas Day and the following weekend, but more on this Monday. Have a great weekend!