Fun weekend, plenty of swell next week but onshore
Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 18th September)
Best Days: Saturday both coasts (Surf Coast beaches), Sunday both coasts, early Monday Surf Coast and protected spots east of Melbourne for keen surfers
Good clean SW groundswell yesterday morning on the Surf Coast to 3-4ft with larger bumpier 6ft+ waves on the Mornington Peninsula.
A reinforcing SW swell for today has kept the surf up around a similar size today with the Surf Coast offering the best conditions again.
This weekend and next week (Sep 19 – 25)
Today's reinforcing SW groundswell will hold into tomorrow keeping good 3ft sets hitting the Surf Coast and 6ft waves on the Mornington Peninsula, easing back into Sunday as a new W/SW groundswell fills in. This should keep the Surf Coast around 2-3ft, with 5-6ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula.
Winds tomorrow will be best for locations east of Melbourne and the beaches on the Surf Coast with a light N/NE offshore ahead of weak SE sea breezes and then local offshore tending variable breezes Sunday.
Monday will be smaller with OK winds for both coasts at dawn, strong from the N/NW ahead of a SW change during the afternoon.
This change will spoil a new very inconsistent long-range W/SW groundswell arriving later in the day, with Tuesday also looking to be a write-off as a secondary S'ly change pushes through and a stronger SW groundswell moves in.
The long-range W/SW groundswell will only build to an infrequent 3ft+ to possibly 4ft on dark on the Surf Coast and 6-8ft on the Mornington Peninsula, holding into Tuesday morning.
The secondary larger SW groundswell for later Tuesday will be generated by a vigorous polar low firing up in the Heard Island region today, projecting a fetch of severe-gale to storm-force W/SW winds under the country through this weekend.
The swell is only due to arrive later Tuesday, kicking to 4-5ft on the Surf Coast and 8ft on the Mornington Peninsula, easing from 3-5ft and 6-8ft respectively Wednesay morning.
Winds will remain poor though and fresh to strong from the S'th Wednesday and Thursday limiting options severely across the whole state.
It won't be until Friday that we see winds swing more E'ly favouring protected spots on the Mornington Peninsula with moderate pulses of SW groundswell from frontal activity swinging in from the Indian Ocean again. Next weekend winds look better, but check back here Monday for the latest on this.
Have a great weekend!