Small windows until Thursday, with locations to the east the go from Friday
Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 7th September)
Best Days: Monday both coasts, Tuesday and Wednesday east of Melbourne
Fun clean 2-3ft waves across the Surf Coast Saturday with a morning offshore wind and lighter afternoon sea breezes. Sunday was better on the Mornington Peninsula with a clean easing 4-5ft of swell, fun and 2-3ft on the Surf Coast.
This morning our new mix of long-range W/SW groundswell and short-range W/SW swell were a little below expectations with small clean 1-2ft waves around Torquay and stormy 4-5ft waves on the Mornington Peninsula. Both swells are building into this afternoon (expected to reach 3-4ft on the Surf Coast and 6-8ft on the Mornington Peninsula) and winds should hold from the west, favouring protected breaks around Torquay.
This week (Sep 8 – 11)
Today's mix of building W/SW swells should ease slowly through tomorrow, from 3ft on the Surf Coast and 6ft+ on the Mornington Peninsula with SW winds across most regions, besides an early W/NW'ly around Torquay.
Wednesday will be small and more 2-3ft at exposed spots on the Surf Coast and 5-6ft on the Mornington Peninsula but with similar SW winds across most spots (early W'ly around Torquay).
Thursday looks better as a new pulse of SW groundswell fills in, generated by a pre-frontal fetch of strong to gale-force W/NW winds currently pushing in from the Indian Ocean, under WA.
This will then be followed by post-frontal W/SW winds in our southern swell window on Wednesday resulting in two pulses of swell.
The first and best is due Thursday from the W/SW, coming in around 3ft on the sets across exposed spots on the Surf Coast and 6ft on the Mornington Peninsula, easing off slowly through Friday as the smaller S/SW pulse fills in and softens the trend.
Winds will be great for the Surf Coast Thursday and offshore from the W/NW (likely NW at times) swinging SW into the afternoon. Friday will then be great on the Mornington Peninsula with N/NE tending variable breezes (N'ly on the Surf Coast through the morning).
This weekend onwards (Sep 12 onwards)
Unfortunately there's no significant new swells due into the weekend with small leftover 1ft to maybe 2ft waves on the Surf Coast Saturday, becoming tiny Sunday. The Mornington Peninsula should offer infrequent 3ft sets and will be the best option with strong N'ly winds.
Sunday will be smaller and with N'ly winds again through the morning, tending N/NW through the day. Therefore, make the most of Saturday's waves and conditions as Sunday will be really slow going.
Next week is looking more active with an initial long-range and inconsistent W/SW groundswell for Monday afternoon, with a better S/SW groundswell for Tuesday/Wednesday. We'll have a closer look at this on Wednesday though.