Pumping period ahead for the Surf Coast
Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 5th May)
Best Days: Every day on the Surf Coast for experienced surfers
This week (May 5 - 8)
All attention will be focussed on the Surf Coast this week as we see a series of large W/SW groundswell pulses fill in.
Tomorrow morning will be the smallest and least consistent off all the days with a long-range W/SW groundswell filling in ahead of a larger and stronger late afternoon kick in close-range W/SW swell from an intense mid-latitude low currently to our west.
The Surf Coast should be in the inconsistent 3-4ft range during the morning before kicking near dark to 4-5ft with the Mornington Peninsula jumping to 6-8ft+.
Conditions will be clean most of the day with a strengthening N/NW tending W/NW breeze, while early Wednesday morning should see clean 5-6ft (possible bigger bombs at Bells/Winki) waves on the Surf Coast and 10ft+ waves on the Mornington Peninsula as the swell peaks.
A drop in size is due during the day with fresh NW tending W/NW winds.
A series of strong fronts pushing in one after the other through our immediate swell window to our south-west will produce additional pulses of W/SW swell for Thursday and Friday ahead of a final large SW groundswell pulse later Saturday/Sunday morning.
Size wise the Surf Coast should ebb and pulse between the 4-6ft range as winds continue from the W/NW.
Saturday's large SW groundswell pulse will be produced by a final polar front pushing up towards us while generating a fetch of severe-gale to storm force SW winds.
This will produce a large long-period SW groundswell that should build Saturday afternoon, likely peak overnight and easing Sunday.
The Surf Coast should build to 4-6ft through the afternoon and then peak Sunday morning to 6-8ft with the Mornington Peninsula kicking to 6-8ft+ and peaking Sunday morning to 10ft+.
Winds should continue from the W/NW all Saturday and then swing from the W/NW Sunday morning to the W/SW into the afternoon. We'll confirm this on Wednesday though.