Craig

Pumping period ahead for the Surf Coast

Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 5th May)

Best Days: Every day on the Surf Coast for experienced surfers

This week (May 5 - 8)

All attention will be focussed on the Surf Coast this week as we see a series of large W/SW groundswell pulses fill in.

Tomorrow morning will be the smallest and least consistent off all the days with a long-range W/SW groundswell filling in ahead of a larger and stronger late afternoon kick in close-range W/SW swell from an intense mid-latitude low currently to our west.

The Surf Coast should be in the inconsistent 3-4ft range during the morning before kicking near dark to 4-5ft with the Mornington Peninsula jumping to 6-8ft+.

Conditions will be clean most of the day with a strengthening N/NW tending W/NW breeze, while early Wednesday morning should see clean 5-6ft (possible bigger bombs at Bells/Winki) waves on the Surf Coast and 10ft+ waves on the Mornington Peninsula as the swell peaks.

A drop in size is due during the day with fresh NW tending W/NW winds.

A series of strong fronts pushing in one after the other through our immediate swell window to our south-west will produce additional pulses of W/SW swell for Thursday and Friday ahead of a final large SW groundswell pulse later Saturday/Sunday morning.

Size wise the Surf Coast should ebb and pulse between the 4-6ft range as winds continue from the W/NW.

Saturday's large SW groundswell pulse will be produced by a final polar front pushing up towards us while generating a fetch of severe-gale to storm force SW winds.

This will produce a large long-period SW groundswell that should build Saturday afternoon, likely peak overnight and easing Sunday.

The Surf Coast should build to 4-6ft through the afternoon and then peak Sunday morning to 6-8ft with the Mornington Peninsula kicking to 6-8ft+ and peaking Sunday morning to 10ft+.

Winds should continue from the W/NW all Saturday and then swing from the W/NW Sunday morning to the W/SW into the afternoon. We'll confirm this on Wednesday though.

Comments

thomas11's picture
thomas11's picture
thomas11 commented Monday, 4 May 2015 at 1:25pm

I'm excited for the next week.
My nuts are tingling harder than James Kelly

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local commented Monday, 4 May 2015 at 1:34pm

Going to be way bigger than that. We're taking 8-10ft plus on the Surf Coast, and only for highly experienced strong paddlers. Gonna be super tough getting out. Maybe the Melbourne crew should start thinking of some options inside western port or maybe down Venus Bay way.

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

brutus's picture
brutus's picture
brutus commented Monday, 4 May 2015 at 1:36pm

just delayed my trip to the USA by a week...yewwww

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local commented Monday, 4 May 2015 at 2:05pm

Too big for you brutus. Should have gone to the US and waited for it to die down!!

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

thomas11's picture
thomas11's picture
thomas11 commented Monday, 4 May 2015 at 2:25pm

WARNING WARNING.

We have one of those "everyone is a fucken kook" except me and my local mates bloke here

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local commented Monday, 4 May 2015 at 2:56pm

WARNING WARNING
We have one of those guys who can't spot sarcasm or read between the lines.

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

brutus's picture
brutus's picture
brutus commented Monday, 4 May 2015 at 6:13pm

hey if its gets too big..like overhead ...there's fisho's.....hehe

Lachie brown's picture
Lachie brown's picture
Lachie brown commented Monday, 4 May 2015 at 7:31pm

Hey craig

With all this strong swell and winds coming through do you recken it will be okay to surf at pt leo this weekend in the groin or crunchies or will it be too windy
thanks heaps

Wharfjunkie's picture
Wharfjunkie's picture
Wharfjunkie commented Monday, 4 May 2015 at 7:34pm

Vic Local are you saying my compadres and I should save our fuel money this week? We were going to head down with our big wave boards ready to charge.

mackdog's picture
mackdog's picture
mackdog commented Monday, 4 May 2015 at 8:56pm

Brighton beach will be epic. You'll save heaps on fuel. Can still ride the Hypto-Beard too.

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local commented Monday, 4 May 2015 at 9:39pm

I like where you're heads are at mackdog and Wharfjunkie.
Point Leo is going to pump and I think the gale force westerlies will dish up some pretty sweet waves down Frankston way.

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

Wharfjunkie's picture
Wharfjunkie's picture
Wharfjunkie commented Tuesday, 5 May 2015 at 6:06pm

The lads have been scared of heading down to bells cannot afford to drive myself so it's gonna be a sick mal sessions down Point Leo way cannot wait will drop into Triggers on the way home to check out some boards and shoot the breeze. Might check out that frankston wave on the way home frothing.

southey's picture
southey's picture
southey commented Monday, 4 May 2015 at 10:12pm

Better still , just bypass the surf coast . I'm sure there'll be a small window of opportunity beyond cow corner !;-)) maybe you can escape the crowds too VL !

" SA's Reserve Capacity "

memlasurf's picture
memlasurf's picture
memlasurf commented Tuesday, 5 May 2015 at 8:20am

Crowds at Bells? Never.

Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog commented Tuesday, 5 May 2015 at 3:24pm

Crazy!!!!!

Sheepdog

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno commented Tuesday, 5 May 2015 at 7:00pm

This is some funny stuff. I've added fuel to the fire about Bay surfing myself, lol. We've started a meme.

Does that chart mean waves for Sheepdog?

Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog commented Tuesday, 5 May 2015 at 7:16pm

I'm not really a "Vicco expert", johnno.... But I'm down near that southern tip of tassie, next to Bruny island..... And it's fucking arctic!!!!!! Starting to really blow....

Sheepdog

mick-free's picture
mick-free's picture
mick-free commented Tuesday, 5 May 2015 at 8:13pm

All this talk of the Bay is pretty exciting. That fetch sheepdogs put up sealed the deal. Frankstown Fashion A frames is sure to pump. I'm coming down.

I hope Craig's forecast is right and I won't get soggy weetbix. Hate it when that happens.

Mick Free FIFOFOMO

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno commented Tuesday, 5 May 2015 at 8:29pm

Wind is up too here Sheepdog, moon on the water looks amazing and at a guess I'd say up to 3ft of waves are filling in. I spent a year of life working all around Tassie, so can relate to the cold - some epic waves too. If you are in the place I think, sometimes a bit of a mission to get waves, but some absolute magic there as well. Hazard a guess you'd need extreme south in the swell to get some places on?

southey's picture
southey's picture
southey commented Tuesday, 5 May 2015 at 8:56pm

I don't dare go to " Franks' town " he's a very loose individual . Probably meth ....
Besides as SD has posted out its way more of a west fetch , and owing to corio bay it really has the swell focusing in Brigh tan ..... Woohooo post surf dwinks at Milanos ...

" SA's Reserve Capacity "

udo's picture
udo's picture
udo commented Tuesday, 5 May 2015 at 9:03pm

.

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno commented Tuesday, 5 May 2015 at 9:49pm

Craig, you really should do a Bay report. There's enormous interest on these pages about it.

Wharfjunkie's picture
Wharfjunkie's picture
Wharfjunkie commented Wednesday, 6 May 2015 at 4:56pm

Not only that velocityjohno it's about time someone got the wave of the day from there. Although that would expose our secret spots.