Pumping weekend, good on the beaches Tuesday
Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 16th January)
Best Days: Saturday morning/early afternoon Surf Coast, Sunday morning Surf Coast, Tuesday east of Melbourne, Thursday morning on the Surf Coast
The Torquay region offered the best waves yesterday morning with an early W/NW breeze and 2ft or so of short-range swell. Onshores kicked in from mid-morning though, creating poor conditions into the afternoon.
Today conditions were clean as a whistle across the Surf Coast, but the swell small to tiny and in the 1ft to occasionally 2ft range.
This weekend and next week (Jan 17 - 23)
Our strong pulses of W/SW and SW groundswell are still on track for the weekend, with a vigorous polar front being projected up towards us under the influence of a strong node (peak) of the Long Wave Trough.
A fetch of gale to severe-gale W/SW winds have and are still being generated in our western swell window, producing a moderate-large W/SW swell for tomorrow, peaking through the middle of the day/afternoon.
Size wise we should see 4-5ft waves across the Surf Coast with the odd bigger set likely at swell magnets and 8ft+ sets on the Mornington Peninsula.
Sunday morning will continue to provide solid levels of SW swell as a secondary fetch of broad SW gales are projected up through our south-western swell window during tomorrow.
This should keep 4-5ft waves hitting the Surf Coast and 8ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula Sunday morning before easing off slowly through the day and further from 3ft+ and 6ft+ respectively Monday morning.
Now, winds will be best for the Surf Coast all weekend with a fresh and gusty W/NW tending W/SW breeze tomorrow and W/NW tending SW winds Sunday.
Monday unfortunately now looks average with a high moving in from the west taking its time resulting in winds lingering from the S/SE across all locations.
Tuesday will be the day to surf when the swell becomes smaller and more manageable on the exposed beaches east of Melbourne under a fresh N/NE'ly. Size wise we should see easing 3-5ft waves with, 2ft+ sets on the Surf Coast.
Wednesday will be a lay day as the swell becomes tiny under early NW winds ahead of a shallow SW change through the morning.
Into the second half of the week we should see some good W/SW swell filling in again, but at this stage, not to the size of the weekend's swell.
First a short-lived pulse of W/SW swell is due Thursday from a strong but unfavourably tracking mid-latitude low from under WA, south of the Bight and then down past Tassie. A fetch of gale to severe-gale W/SW winds will be aimed temporarily through our swell window, kicking up a short-lived pulse to 2ft on the Surf Coast and 3-5ft on the Mornington Peninsula.
Winds are a little tricky but a W/NW to SW breeze is more than likely, favouring the Surf Coast. Beyond this a broader and better tracking frontal system should generate a secondary W/SW groundswell for Friday/Saturday but well look at this again Monday. Have a great weekend!