Craig

Pumping weekend, good on the beaches Tuesday

Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 16th January)

Best Days: Saturday morning/early afternoon Surf Coast, Sunday morning Surf Coast, Tuesday east of Melbourne, Thursday morning on the Surf Coast

Recap

The Torquay region offered the best waves yesterday morning with an early W/NW breeze and 2ft or so of short-range swell. Onshores kicked in from mid-morning though, creating poor conditions into the afternoon.

Today conditions were clean as a whistle across the Surf Coast, but the swell small to tiny and in the 1ft to occasionally 2ft range.

This weekend and next week (Jan 17 - 23)

Our strong pulses of W/SW and SW groundswell are still on track for the weekend, with a vigorous polar front being projected up towards us under the influence of a strong node (peak) of the Long Wave Trough.

A fetch of gale to severe-gale W/SW winds have and are still being generated in our western swell window, producing a moderate-large W/SW swell for tomorrow, peaking through the middle of the day/afternoon.

Size wise we should see 4-5ft waves across the Surf Coast with the odd bigger set likely at swell magnets and 8ft+ sets on the Mornington Peninsula.

Sunday morning will continue to provide solid levels of SW swell as a secondary fetch of broad SW gales are projected up through our south-western swell window during tomorrow.

This should keep 4-5ft waves hitting the Surf Coast and 8ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula Sunday morning before easing off slowly through the day and further from 3ft+ and 6ft+ respectively Monday morning.

Now, winds will be best for the Surf Coast all weekend with a fresh and gusty W/NW tending W/SW breeze tomorrow and W/NW tending SW winds Sunday.

Monday unfortunately now looks average with a high moving in from the west taking its time resulting in winds lingering from the S/SE across all locations.

Tuesday will be the day to surf when the swell becomes smaller and more manageable on the exposed beaches east of Melbourne under a fresh N/NE'ly. Size wise we should see easing 3-5ft waves with, 2ft+ sets on the Surf Coast.

Wednesday will be a lay day as the swell becomes tiny under early NW winds ahead of a shallow SW change through the morning.

Into the second half of the week we should see some good W/SW swell filling in again, but at this stage, not to the size of the weekend's swell.

First a short-lived pulse of W/SW swell is due Thursday from a strong but unfavourably tracking mid-latitude low from under WA, south of the Bight and then down past Tassie. A fetch of gale to severe-gale W/SW winds will be aimed temporarily through our swell window, kicking up a short-lived pulse to 2ft on the Surf Coast and 3-5ft on the Mornington Peninsula.

Winds are a little tricky but a W/NW to SW breeze is more than likely, favouring the Surf Coast. Beyond this a broader and better tracking frontal system should generate a secondary W/SW groundswell for Friday/Saturday but well look at this again Monday. Have a great weekend!

Comments

jclaringbold's picture
jclaringbold's picture
jclaringbold commented Friday, 16 Jan 2015 at 12:47pm

Hey Craig - wondering if you think wind strength is going to be a real issue tomorrow morning. The surf forecast says it's going to be really strong...Cheers

Lachie brown's picture
Lachie brown's picture
Lachie brown commented Friday, 16 Jan 2015 at 1:34pm

Hey craig do you think there will be any surf at western port this weekend or next week

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Friday, 16 Jan 2015 at 1:37pm

Jclaringbold, no shouldn't be an issue on the protected reefs.

Lachie, yep Western Port should kick to 3ft on the sets through tomorrow on the favourable parts of the tide and ease from 2-3ft or so Sunday.

Lachie brown's picture
Lachie brown's picture
Lachie brown commented Friday, 16 Jan 2015 at 2:18pm

Awesome thanks craig

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Sunday, 18 Jan 2015 at 8:59pm

So how'd everyone go? Saw some some great photos/reports from the Surf Coast. Heard it was crowded as well though, but it is the middle of the summer holidays.

mitchvg's picture
mitchvg's picture
mitchvg commented Sunday, 18 Jan 2015 at 9:27pm

As I've said in another thread, a board for the beachies just doesn't get ya in early enough . with limited experience anyway. And did a thousand clicks. All part of earning your place but!

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Sunday, 18 Jan 2015 at 9:33pm

What ya on about Mitch?

mitchvg's picture
mitchvg's picture
mitchvg commented Monday, 19 Jan 2015 at 12:20am

I literally drove over 1000 kms going from the city to Bells to Glenaire, etc. But didn't check Bells at the right time (Sat morn), had a fairly performance-ey 5'10, and carrying a finicky injury. All part of the learning experience but. So based purely on waves, was a dog of a trip. Dinged my board too, when I thought I was being careful! The forecasts were pretty accurate, maybe a bit over (WAMs for the cape) but hard to tell from a cliff anyway. Only way to actually learn for yourself but!

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot commented Monday, 19 Jan 2015 at 7:29am

So where'd Ya surf Mitch?

mitchvg's picture
mitchvg's picture
mitchvg commented Sunday, 8 Mar 2015 at 12:55pm

Just Sth of Lorne each time.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Monday, 19 Jan 2015 at 8:53am

Ah bugger Mitch, this wasn't a monster swell, so I'm guessing you were trying to get some novelty spot on?

Best bet is always the Surf Coast under these setups.

mitchvg's picture
mitchvg's picture
mitchvg commented Sunday, 8 Mar 2015 at 12:53pm

Nah Craig just wanted to see the full range of conditions! Picked up a 2nd hand MC 6'4 and it went so much better yesterday than my 5'10 would have. How pronounced will the change be tomorrow? BOM's model says very distinct and through by mid morn

jezza64's picture
jezza64's picture
jezza64 commented Monday, 19 Jan 2015 at 9:18am

"Surfed" at Bells Saturday morning. Plenty of size with the occasional 6ft sneaker. All the sneakers seemed to find me, one of those surfs when you are always in the wrong spot. For me anyway. I'm sure most people had fun.
Did see one poor bugger have to swim in after snapping a leggie Sunday. Didn't look like much fun.

carpetman's picture
carpetman's picture
carpetman commented Monday, 19 Jan 2015 at 9:24am

One of the busiest weekends I've seen. Some ok waves but it seemed a bit like the goldcoast.