Best Wednesday and Thursday morning

Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 5th January)

Best Days: Wednesday both coasts, Thursday morning both coasts


The weekend started hot and windy with a strong to gale-force offshore N'ly breeze blowing the Surf Coast near flat while the Mornington Peninsula was blown out by the winds.

A strong and cool onshore change yesterday created poor conditions as the swell remained small, while today a slight lift in size has been seen but with winds continuing from the S/SE.

This week (Jan 6 - 9)

Tomorrow is looking average with today's slight kick in size due to ease back under poor and fresh SE winds leaving no real options for a decent wave.

Wednesday is looking better as our new SW groundswell starts to fill in under more favourable winds.

The source of this swell was and still is strong but weakening polar fronts to the south-west of WA, setting in motion an inconsistent but good mid-period SW groundswell.

The good thing about this swell is that it will be smaller through the morning, favouring the beaches east of Melbourne when winds are best before maxing out a touch into the afternoon.

Size wise the Mornington Peninsula should build from 3-4ft during the morning to 4-6ft into the afternoon, while the Surf Coast will be small and around 1-2ft early before increasing to 2-3ft through the afternoon.

Winds may tend variable into the afternoon across the Surf Coast and likely remain E/NE across the Mornington Peninsula creating a full fun day of surf.

A drop in size is then due into Thursday as winds strengthen from the N'th ahead of a late afternoon/evening W/SW change. Size wise the swell should be easing from 2ft on the Surf Coast and 3-5ft on the Mornington Peninsula.

The end of the week is looking poor with small leftover amounts of swell and an onshore wind from S/SW after Thursday evening's change.

This weekend onwards (Jan 10 onwards)

Unfortunately the weekend isn't looking too flash with a new SW groundswell due to arrive through Saturday expected to be spoilt by persistent onshore winds S/SW.

There's also divergence surrounding a deepening inland surface trough drifting south-east and offshore, sitting to our east, with wind forecasts varying a full 180 degrees.

Therefore we'll have to review the outlook from the weekend onwards through next week again on Wednesday.


crip's picture
crip's picture
crip commented Tuesday, 6 Jan 2015 at 12:34pm

The Lorne Pier To Pub swim is on this weekend (the Great Ocean Road is going to be choccas, avoid driving Anglesea-Lorne Saturday morning!). Conditions are going to be pretty crappy, with lots of rain and only 20 degrees. At least the wind should be ok for it. Oh well, I won't bother taking the board with me.