Very poor weekend ahead

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)

Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 3rd December)

Best Days: Thursday morning east of Melbourne

Recap

The Surf Coast was clean yesterday morning but small to tiny with exposed breaks offering the only decent waves. The Mornington Peninsula was bigger but bumpy with the west in the wind.

Today a slight lift in long-range SW groundswell was seen but the Mornington Peninsula offered the best waves with a light morning E/SE breeze and 3ft sets, while the Surf Coast was a bumpy 1-2ft.

This week and weekend (Dec 4 - 7)

Tomorrow morning is the pick of the week with the swell staying around the inconsistent 3ft range on the sets across the Mornington Peninsula as winds swing E/NE through the morning before reverting back to the SE through the late morning as a trough sitting to our west slips east.

There'll still be a lot of peakiness and wobble to conditions though from overnight onshores, so keep your expectations low and you should have fun.

Friday will be poor as the trough stalls to our east and deepens, directing strong E/SE winds into both coasts which will then persist into the weekend kicking up moderate levels of SE windswell across the Surf Coast.

At this stage the Surf Coast should build to a junky 2-3ft Saturday and persist in the 3ft+ range Sunday before easing off through the late afternoon.

Next week onwards (Dec 8 onwards)

The trough is forecast to weaken into Sunday evening and drift away to the south-east resulting in winds backing off into Monday but lingering from the E/SE keeping conditions average across both coasts.

A mix of easing SE windswell and small SW groundswell to 2ft on the Surf Coast and 3-4ft on the Mornington Peninsula is due, but only selected protected beaches will be worth surfing.

Winds are due to swing back to the west Tuesday and Wednesday but with no real decent groundswell for the Surf Coast.

Longer term there's still nothing major on the cards, but we'll review this again Friday.

Comments

sarge4's picture
sarge4's picture
sarge4 Thursday, 4 Dec 2014 at 12:42pm

Rubbish rubbish and more rubbish! ya killing me Craig!

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot Thursday, 4 Dec 2014 at 2:07pm

This is fucked

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Thursday, 4 Dec 2014 at 3:18pm

Where'd the Victorian waves go? No, it's not a dirty surfcam lens - it's a rare afternoon sea fog along the Bellarine Peninsula.

A moderate southerly breeze has dropped air temps down to about 18 degrees, and the dew point's around 16 degrees, close to the water temps (Pt Nepean has been up to 19 degrees today but that could be due to an outflow from Port Phillip Bay).

Anyway the moist, cool air moving over warm water has allowed the water vapor to condense - forming clouds. Or, because we're at sea level, sea fog!

Live vision: https://www.swellnet.com/surfcams/13th-beach

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Thursday, 4 Dec 2014 at 4:46pm

And now it's gone!

carpetman's picture
carpetman's picture
carpetman Thursday, 4 Dec 2014 at 6:52pm

Arrrgggghhh, send it back, send it back!!

Average's picture
Average's picture
Average Thursday, 4 Dec 2014 at 4:49pm

I haven't had a proper wave in over a month and I don't see anything reasonable on the forecast. At what point do you just give up and try to surf garbage?

I'm not quite there yet. Maybe tomorrow.

Jobe09's picture
Jobe09's picture
Jobe09 Thursday, 4 Dec 2014 at 6:06pm

Will there be any surfable junky waves on Saturday?

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Thursday, 4 Dec 2014 at 7:01pm

Not really Jobe, be small and weak on the Surf Coast and small and poor to the east. 

Sunday would be the pick either at a beachy on the Surf Coast for onshore but sizey slops, or in a protected nook east of Melbourne.

indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming Thursday, 4 Dec 2014 at 7:35pm

Does suck but i always think a run of these small/tiny swell with any wind with east in its good for the banks to kinda settle (NE best but E to SE is still better than SW-W), kinda pushes the sand into the shorries a bit.

Its an important thing coming into summer so theres plenty of banks to spread out the crowd, not many true banks down Phillip Island(woolys) at the moment so hopefully things will come good.

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot Thursday, 4 Dec 2014 at 7:45pm

Hardly any on the MP too indo d. Very frustrating!!

lone-ranger's picture
lone-ranger's picture
lone-ranger Thursday, 4 Dec 2014 at 8:27pm

there should be a minimum of 6 cyclones this year- this is a typical 70's weather pattern on the FNC, it will be pumping Xmas day onwards

southey's picture
southey's picture
southey Thursday, 4 Dec 2014 at 9:16pm

Might be time to get in the car and go explore Goofy !

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot Friday, 5 Dec 2014 at 6:19am

2 weeks before Xmas. I'm working 10 hrs a day 6days a week and looking at jobs and quoting on Sunday. Just want to be able to sniff something out around here.