Average period ahead; best east of Melbourne

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)

Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 28th May)

Best Days: Mid-late morning east of Melbourne tomorrow, Friday and Saturday east of Melbourne, Tuesday morning


The surf was small but clean for most of the day across both regions yesterday, coming in at an inconsistent 2ft on the sets at 13th Beach and around 1-2ft in Torquay around the low tide, while the Mornington Peninsula saw 2-3ft sets.

Today the swell has faded away leaving tiny clean waves for beginners on the Surf Coast and chopped up 2-3ft surf on the Mornington Peninsula with a less favourable W/NW breeze.

This week (May 28 - 30)

A new small W/SW swell due tomorrow is expected to come in at a similar size to yesterday's pulse, not being above 1-2ft on the Surf Coast and 2-3ft on the Mornington Peninsula. Winds however will be better than today, swinging locally offshore through tomorrow morning ahead of weak E/SE sea breezes into the late afternoon.

The Mornington Peninsula may be a little unorganised at first light after overnight onshores, but mid-late morning should be best as winds tend N/NE.

The swell will dip temporarily into early Friday morning, but a new W/SW groundswell is expected to fill in during the day, generated by a strong mid-latitude low that's currently south of WA. This system will push north into the Bight and out of our swell window, with the resulting swell being inconsistent, small and only reaching 2ft or so on the Surf Coast but a better 3-4ft on the Mornington Peninsula.

Winds will be best for locations east of Melbourne with a N/NE tending E/NE breeze and fine weather.

This weekend onwards (May 31st onwards)

Saturday will be another good day to hunt down a wave east of Melbourne or at other exposed coasts across the state. The reason for this, is that Friday's small kick in W/SW swell will ease slowly through the day as winds persist from the NE during the morning. Try and surf before lunch though as weak sea breezes are due into the afternoon while Sunday looks average with light onshores in the wake of a shallow overnight change.

Although a new long-range W/SW groundswell is due Sunday ahead of a slightly bigger increase Monday (2ft+ on the Surf Coast and 3-4ft+ on the Mornington Peninsula), conditions will deteriorate as a surface trough deepens across the east of the state. The trough will form off the East Coast and drift south through Monday with onshore S/SE tending SE winds more than likely leaving no real options for a decent wave.

Tuesday will be a touch better with a more variable wind, but the swell will be small and easing across the state.

As touched on last update, the longer term still remains void of any major swell activity as the upper level weather patterns which influence the surface level storms remain subdued. No strong nodes of the Long Wave Trough are forecast to move into a favourable part of our swell window for at least another week or so. We should see small-medium levels of swell continuing to impact the state but no major winter swells are showing on the cards at all. We'll provide another update on the long-term outlook again on Friday.