Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon 28th April)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Solid swells from the E, SE and S on Monday but windy from the south
• Smaller, cleaner leftovers on Tues
• Very large and windy conditions developing Wed, easing Thurs
• Muscular blend of swells continues Fri but down from Thurs with easing winds
• Fun blend over the weekend with light winds
• Small to start next week, with potential from the E as the week goes on- check back Wed for latest updates

Recap

Game of two halves over the weekend with Sat seeing generally clean conditions under light winds which tended N’ly. E’ly swells held some fun 2-3ft surf across open beaches. Clean conditions and fun sized E swell held into Sun morning briefly before a low wound up and brought fresh S-SE winds across the region. With the low moving offshore we’ve seen a chunky swell build from the S/SE-SE overnight and today is seeing sizey 4-6ft surf with most spots wind affected. Protected locations are seeing the best of it. 

Plenty of size even into more sheltered spots this morning

This week (Apr 28-May 2)

Another dynamic autumn week beckons with a current low in the Tasman slowly drifting E while a dominant high moves into the Bight. We’ll see another front and trough develop mid week on the leading edge of the dominant high, which sees a strong S/SE-SE fetch develop through the lower Tasman from mid week. Plenty of swell from this source with a strong ridge along the NSW seeing fresh S’lies, easing into the weekend. 

In the short run, improving conditions are imminent as the low moves away, weakens and pressure gradients along the coast ease. Expect morning W-SW breezes with clean conditions widespread. Todays size will ease into tomorrow but there should be plenty of fun, rippable surf from the SE-E/SE in the 3-4ft range (odd bigger set in the morning) on a slow ease through the day. By a’noon, we’ll see light S’lies which shouldn’t affect wave quality too much, especially if you have a headland close by.

We’ll see things ramp back up again Wed. A front enters the Tasman, decays into a trough and moves northwards along the coast in a pattern we’ve seen repeatedly this autumn. With the backing of a very strong high pressure gradients tighten quickly, bringing fresh/strong S’lies through the morning. We should see a brief window of more offshore W-SW conditions so get on the early for some small, fun surf in the 2-3ft range. By lunch-time and into the a’noon a steep ramp up in new S swell is expected, with size building to 5-6ft by close of play, smaller into more protected locations. 

That size builds a notch into Thurs morning with the dominant S-S/SE swell up over the 6ft range. Remnants of the current low will re-organise near New Zealand into tomorrow/Wed and that will add E-E/SE swell into the 3-4ft range through the day. Winds will still be fresh S’ly, easing a notch but tending more S/SE through SE during the day so wind protection will be required. There should be plenty of size from the muscular blend of S/SE and E swells to get into sheltered locations. 

More blended S/SE and E swells into Fri, although size will have come off the peak. Pencil in 4-5ft surf across open stretches, smaller into more sheltered locations. Pressure gradients will ease into Fri but a S’ly flow is still expected. Good odds we’ll see morning SW breezes (more W’ly north of the Harbour) before winds shift light/mod S through S/SE. Not a perfectly clean day but there should be plenty of options on offer Fri.

This weekend (Apr 26-27) 

High pressure moves off the Southern NSW coast into the Tasman over the weekend so pressure gradients will relax through southern/central NSW into Saturday. Still some S’ly flow north of Jervis Bay although light with morning land breezes established. With clean mornings on hand we should see plenty of fun waves through Sat morning on an easing trend. We’ll pencil in size to 3-4ft with an occ. bigger set, dropping back to 3ft through the day. Models are picking up on some long period S swell wrap from an intense but zonal storm flow to the south of the continent. That may add some inconsistent 2-3ft surf to S facing beaches, applicable if winds are favourable.

Easing surf continues into Sun with size levelling off into the 2-3ft range with some inconsistent long period S’ly energy in the mix. We’ll still see a light S’ly flow (offshore W-SW) early with winds washing out to light E’lies in the day. Small, fun beachies favouring those spots with a touch of wind protection.

Next week (Apr 28 onwards)

The dominant high moves over New Zealand early next week, becomes flat-topped and establishes a long, broad E’ly flow through the South Pacific slot and into the Coral Sea. There is some model divergence with the European model suggesting a bog standard but very healthy trade flow and plenty of E-E/SE swell for the sub-tropics, filtering down into the temperate regions through the week at reduced levels.

GFS is hinting at an E’ly dip, potentially deepening into a surface low SE of New Caledonia by mid week, which offers all sorts of potential for more major E’ly swell for the eastern seaboard. Still too early to have any confidence in specific outcomes. 

We’ll flag it for now, and see how it looks Wed.

At a minimum we’ll see swells from the eastern quadrant through next week, likely becoming sizier through the week with the large blocking high keeping the southern swell window quiet.

Check back Wed for latest updates.

Seeya then!