Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed 23rd April)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Some long period S swell buried in the mix Wed/Thurs
• Improving winds Thurs (still some leftover bump) with a small blend of swells
• Fun but inconsistent E swell Fri, easing into Sat
• Offshore winds likely Sat with a fun mix of swells
• SW-S winds freshening Sun as low moves offshore with a spike in new S swell
• Likely easing S swell early next week before a new pulse of better quality S swell 
• Another small but fun E swell likely mid next week, potentially with light winds
• Large high moves in next week with onshore winds and increasing E swell likely

Recap

Not much quality around since the last f/cast with strong S’lies yesterday tending SE through the day and short range swell perking up into the 2-3ft range. Winds have swung more directly onshore today and with mod/fresh E’lies on hand conditions are a real mess. There is around 3ft of surf on hand for the very keen.

Junkorama today- at least the water is blue

This week (Apr 23-25)

We’ve got a slow moving high sitting east of Tasmania and a trough of low pressure off the North Coast directing an onshore flow across most of the Eastern Seaboard. Not a great change through the rest of the week with the trough devolving into a trough line and sitting on the coast and a new trough of low pressure forming on the weekend. We’ll see some new short range S swell from that source, improving in quality as the trough forms a low and moves away from the coast. We’ve also got some sources of E’ly swell on the radar which will keep surf zones active. 

In the short run we’ll see the onshore flow continue overnight and into tomorrow. Pressure gradients do ease which increases the odds of a morning land breeze but it’s likely there’ll be residual lump and bump about. By a’noon we’ll see winds clock around more NE’ly. E’ly swell generated by a broad fetch of E’ly breezes in the Tasman will hold surf in the 3ft range on an easing trend. There will be some flukey long period S swell in the water supplying some 2-3ft surf at S facing beaches which could be worth chasing as winds shift more NE in the a’noon. 

As mentioned on Mon, a tropical low which moved through the South Pacific slot early this week before dipping behind the North Island, has generated some E’ly quadrant swell which looks to fill in through Fri morning. Expect soft patches and long waits but we should see some well shaped 3ft sets by late morning, extending into the a’noon. Light NW-N winds early shift NE at mod paces through the day. Nothing too robust so most beaches should remain surfable.

This weekend (Apr 26-27) 

We’ve got more clarity on the weekend although expect some fine-tuning on timing on Fri. A trough will be lingering around the Central NSW area with a front approaching Tasmania. Pre-frontal N’ly winds on Sat should tend NW through the day and even potentially W’ly.  Leftover E swell to 2 occ. 3ft will be joined by short range E/NE-NE swell from winds feeding into the approaching trough/low, adding more 2-3ft energy into the mix. If winds shift offshore, there’s plenty of potential for fun waves Sat. 

Sunday looks dynamic, so expect last minute revisions to the f/cast. A trough of low pressure forms, and deepens through the day. We’d expect winds to shift W through W/SW then freshen from the S/SW-S as the low really winds up in the a’noon. The timing of those wind shifts is still very much in play. Infeed into the developing low looks likely to generate fun-sized 3 potentially 4ft of E/NE swell through the morning. Through the a’noon that is likely to be over-ridden by a new spike in short range S swell, provisionally reaching up into the 5-6ft range. Check back in Fri for a last look at it as we sharpen up the size and timing. 

Next week (Apr 28 onwards)

Under current modelling we’re looking at a complex synoptic map early next week with the Tasman low being the major swell generator. Sizey S swell and fresh SW-S winds Mon are on the cards with at least 5-6ft of S swell in the water, likely easing in the a’noon.

A broad E’ly fetch in the South Pacific between New Caledonia and the North Island, potentially enhanced by a tropical low looks to send more E’ly angled swell from later Tues into Wed. No great size but sets to 3ft are on the cards. 

A strong front passing through the lower Tasman adds some S swell into the mix during this time frame. 

We should see at least pockets of good winds through this time.

From mid week a dominant high is expected to move into position to set up a strong ridge along the East coast, possibly with a trough along the leading edge. That would set-up another round of onshore wind and short range SE-E swell as we moved into May. 

The high sets up a large E’ly fetch according to most recent model runs with a round of tradewind swell in the sub-tropics.

Another low in the Coral Sea is also a potential outcome later next week. 

Check back Fri and we’ll see how it’s shaping up.

Seeya then!