Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon Jan 1st)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Mostly small NE swells Mon PM, Tues with mod/fresh NE winds
• Another flukey S groundswell Wed/Thurs
• S’ly change Thurs with short range S/SE swell Thurs/Fri, wind affected under mod/fresh S-SE winds
• Tricky weekend outlook but onshore winds and S/SE swells likely, possibly with a bit of size
• Tricky outlook continues into next week, possible trough/low in Tasman with E-E/SE swells or low forming off Tasmania and sizey S swells
• Check back Wed for latest updates and revisions

Recap

Not a great weekend to see out 2023- Sat saw some small leftover E and S swell to 1-2ft with clean morning conditions offering up a grovel for the keen. S swell increased Sun with size to 3-4ft at S facing beaches, bigger on the Hunter and poor conditions under freshening S-SE winds. Onshore SE-E, tending NE winds to bring in 2024 with a leftover S swell under-sized at 2-3ft (at best) and a low quality grovel for the keen beans ready to get off the mark for the New Year. Happy New year all.

A bit of swell energy on the Hunter but poor conditions under onshore winds

This week (Jan 1-5)

We’ve got a moderate strength high pressure cell (1025hPa) in the Tasman, connected to a high pressure belt under the continent, directing NE winds in Central/Southern NSW, more E-SE in the sub-tropics where a broad troughy area is directing a stronger onshore flow and whipping up local swells from that direction. 

Not much action ahead for the short run in the f/cast region. Mod/fresh NE winds through Tues and Wed across temperate NSW with lighter N-NW winds inshore early. Local NE winds proximate to the coast and E’ly winds in the Northern Tasman will supply a typical Summer mix of NE and E/NE short period swells topping out at 2ft Tues a’noon and holding through Wed. Models are still suggesting traces of long period S swell from zonal fetches generated by polar lows north of the ice shelf. That looks more likely Wed at S facing beaches with a few 2ft sets and the occ. bigger one at pure S facing reefs.

We’ll see a change Thurs as a trough pushes E of Tasmania and a front passes below the Island state. Expect a NW tending W/NW flow through the morning before the trough brings a vigorous S tending S/SE flow. Worth checking S facing beaches for long period S swell in the morning before the wind change with a few 2-3ft sets possible although inconsistent and flukey. Once the change sets in, we’ll see increasing short range S-SE swell building late in the day, more likely south of Sydney.

Building short range S-S/SE swells through Fri, with mod/fresh winds from the same direction will limit surf options but there should be a few semi-sheltered options available with rideable 2ft surf. Open beaches with S swell exposure will see size up into the 3-4ft range by the a’noon but very wind affected. 

This weekend (Jan 6-7)

Models are offering divergent scenarios leading into this weekend with EC suggesting the trough in the Tasman will deepen and move north into the Central/Northern Tasman, possibly as a closed surface low. Which would see moderate S/SE tending E/SE swells over the weekend under a S’ly tending E/SE flow across the weekend.

GFS has a much more subdued take with the trough dissipating and a weaker onshore flow. Under this scenario we’d see leftovers from the S/SE to 2-3ft Sat, easing during the day and smaller leftovers Sun to 2ft with a small increase in short period E swell Sun.

Neither scenario is too froth-worthy at this stage but we’ll see how it looks Wed. There’ll be a rideable wave of some description. 

Next week (Jan 8 onwards)

Model variance continues into next week so confidence is low on the outlook. EC maintains the trough and supporting high pressure in the Tasman, with workable E-E/NE swells and NE winds through Mon-Tues. It suggests a slow Southwards movement of the trough with winds shifting more E/SE-SE from Wed and swells tending more E/SE in this period. 

GFS suggests a more typical high pressure in the Tasman and NE flow through Mon with a new trough deepening off the Tasmanian or Gippsland Coast Tues bringing a stiff S’ly change.

A deep low is then expected to form (under this scenario) with gales off Tasmania into Wed and new S swell propagating northwards during Wed, potentially with some real size to it.

We’ll flag these scenarios for now and see how they look on Wed. We are due for a more substantial Tasman Sea swell after a fairly lacklustre period.

Check back Wed for the latest.