James KC

Offshore winds and plenty of S swell

Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by James Casey (issued Monday 12th April)

Best Days: Tuesday, Wednesday Thursday all looking good

Outlook:

  • S swell peaking Monday afternoon
  • Tuesday offshore winds and easing but still solid waves early easing throughout the day as winds turn around to the N
  • Wednesday clean but smaller waves early before pulsing with new S/SE swell 
  • Thursday easing swell, offshore winds
  • Friday SW change tending S throughout the day becoming bumpier in the afternoon

Recap

Well what a rollercoaster of swell over the weekend. Saturday morning it was solid with 4-6ft waves even bigger at S swell magnets as the swell really pulsed from that short yet powerful S change overnight on Friday. Surprising that it got as big as it did from such short-lived winds but it must’ve been a perfectly aimed fetch. Like the duration of the winds it was only short-lived, easing throughout the day and by Sunday morning there was hardly 2ft of swell as a big high tide really swallowed up most of what was left of the swell. 

By the late morning a new swell had started to fill in with 3ft sets out of the S. It built to a decent 3-5ft by the afternoon but it was a bit on the straight side. Winds were strong out of the W/SW meaning most beaches were clean just ruffled from the offshore. Better along the beach breaks than out on the more exposed reefs. 

This morning it is a solid 6ft although still building. Winds should swing more around to the S as the day goes on making southern corners your best bet. Southern corners will be handling the swell far better too as most exposed locations struggle to handle the size and power. 

The start of the week

This S swell was generated by strong S winds east of Tassie and up the entire east coast. It will reach it’s peak late tonight and into tomorrow morning around the 6-8ft mark, even bigger for the Hunter.   

Now tomorrow is looking to be one of those beautiful autumn mornings with light offshore winds and a solid S swell. There’ll be plenty of waves about but for most it’ll still be best in southern corners due to the size making it for the more experienced at the more exposed spots. I’d expect some of the outside reef breaks to be decent for the chargers amongst us with the mid morning looking to have the best of the winds. 

By the afternoon the swell will have eased to 4-5ft and with winds picking up out of the N there’ll be some decent options at S facing beaches. Southern corners will be bumpy in the afternoon so not a great option if you are looking for smaller waves. 

NW winds on Wednesday morning will keep it clean but with the smallest waves for the first half of the week, around the 3ft+ mark. It’ll only be short-lived as by the afternoon it will have picked up again as winds on the backside of the front create another more S/SE pulse of swell with waves up around the 4-5ft mark on an already active sea state. Offshore winds will continue so there’ll be options for all types of waves, protected or exposed you should be able to find something.

Thursday will see the swell ease to the 3-4ft mark. Again with offshore winds there’ll be options around. 

Winds will strengthen on Friday starting out SW but swinging around to the S by the early afternoon. Early on it’ll be another low point in the swell with about 2-3ft of S/SE swell but again it won’t last long as the swell builds into the afternoon with a peak on Saturday. By Friday arvo it’ll be 4-5ft but bumpy from the S winds so best to keep in protected southern corners for cleaner conditions. 

The Weekend

The swell will peak up around the 4-6ft mark into Saturday morning thanks to strong SW winds associated with the front to the south and east of Tassie. 

Winds will be light and SW early but I’d expect a bit of lump to it thanks to the strong S winds on Friday. As the day goes on it’ll clean up before winds strengthen out of the S late on Saturday afternoon. 

By Sunday winds will have swung back around to the W and with the longer period S swell still lingering around the 3ft mark I’d expect yet another fun day of waves. 

Further ahead it looks like winds will remain out of the W for most of next week with no signs that the S swells will stop coming  with a chance of another fresh round of S swell on Tuesday and again later in the week.

Tune in on Wednesday for an update on these systems.

Comments

Panman's picture
Panman's picture
Panman Monday, 12 Apr 2021 at 3:39pm

So that’s a week’s worth of swell !!!
Good work KC

lost's picture
lost's picture
lost Monday, 12 Apr 2021 at 4:40pm

North Narra don't like a strong southerly. Anyone know if they have any flexibility to move the comp to one or more of the more protected southern corners if the swell is up ?

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Monday, 12 Apr 2021 at 4:41pm

Can do DY Point. Will have a FC up tomororow AM.

lost's picture
lost's picture
lost Monday, 12 Apr 2021 at 5:15pm

Would be awesome viewing from the pool and rocks - so close to the action. Not popular with a lot of folk though

mpeachy's picture
mpeachy's picture
mpeachy Monday, 12 Apr 2021 at 5:30pm

Can they use the reefs around Longy headland? Probably too hard to get the infrastructure in there

billie's picture
billie's picture
billie Monday, 12 Apr 2021 at 6:24pm

Not very competitive surf breaks.

SimonJ's picture
SimonJ's picture
SimonJ Monday, 12 Apr 2021 at 8:57pm

Manly was so un crowded this morning. Bit full but no complaints. More of the same tomorrow please

James KC's picture
James KC's picture
James KC Tuesday, 13 Apr 2021 at 4:13pm

Tomorrow's swell producer clear as day in this ASCAT

stunet's picture
stunet's picture
stunet Tuesday, 13 Apr 2021 at 5:57pm

Cooking the last two days around here with what appears much more swell to come. 

Pacing and strategically timed sessions are the order of the day.

bbbird's picture
bbbird's picture
bbbird Tuesday, 13 Apr 2021 at 7:03pm

A squadron of drones or fleet of jetski camera persons.... with live feed to the judges, coaches and viewers, would be possible; if.... the best surf & pro surfers performance were the priority of WSL .

bbbird's picture
bbbird's picture
bbbird Tuesday, 13 Apr 2021 at 7:16pm

eg. XXL Hawaii Dec 2020

surfphotoscentralcoast's picture
surfphotoscentralcoast's picture
surfphotoscentr... Tuesday, 13 Apr 2021 at 8:37pm

112A7364

surfphotoscentralcoast's picture
surfphotoscentralcoast's picture
surfphotoscentr... Wednesday, 14 Apr 2021 at 2:21pm

112A7361

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Wednesday, 14 Apr 2021 at 6:28pm

Your photos aren't working. "Bandwidth limit exceeded."

scoopmaster's picture
scoopmaster's picture
scoopmaster Thursday, 15 Apr 2021 at 8:44am

Swell was far bigger than I expected yesterday evening - went beach fishing at a shoalhaven ocean beach somewhat protected from south swells, expecting knee-waist high only to find shoulder high sets. Couldn't tell whether I was getting bites or just the waves moving my sinker around - Didn't stay long.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Thursday, 15 Apr 2021 at 8:45am

But unfortunately nearly all gone this morning.