James KC

Abundance of swell with plenty of windows of opportunity

Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by James Casey (issued Wednesday 7th April)

Best Days: Friday morning, offshore winds and peak of the E/NE swell. Mid morning Saturday. Sunday mid morning with SW winds and a building S swell. Tuesday next week with light NW winds and an easing S swell. 

Outlook:

  • E/NE swell from sub tropical low to peak Thursday afternoon into Friday morning. 
  • As the low begins moving further out to sea winds will go offshore with a nice window Friday morning ahead of a strong S change.
  • Moderate S swell for Saturday
  • Larger S swell to build into Sunday afternoon and into Monday
  • Light winds and easing S swell Tuesday morning

Recap

That S swell started filling in on Monday afternoon and yesterday there were some 4-5ft sets in the Hunter, 4ft sets in Sydney and the Illawarra. It really is amazing it reached our coast with that kind of size as those winds south of Tassie looked very zonal. 

Winds were light and offshore in the mornings but did swing around to the SE as the day went on, making it a little lumpy on the surface. The swell was solid enough it didn’t really matter too much though. All in all it was a nice surprise.

Today we have smaller waves with that S swell easing. Sydney and the Hunter are around the 3ft mark while the Illawarra is more like 2-3ft. Winds were lighter earlier out of the S but have strengthened out of the SE. 

This week

The long range S swell generated to the south and west of Tassie over the weekend will continue to ease as the E/NE swell begins to take over as the dominant source. This E/NE swell feels like it has been a long time coming with the complex sub tropical low forming in the Coral Sea finally beginning to shift south this afternoon. 

The swell will begin to build from the late tomorrow (Thursday) with it peaking around the 3-4ft mark on Friday. 

Winds will be light and variable tomorrow morning before building out of the E as the day goes on. It’ll be more SE for the Hunter, closer to the complex sub tropical low, and more NE for the Illawarra, with an infeed of N winds ahead of an approaching S change. Sydney will have lighter winds more out of the E stuck between the two systems. 

Winds will be offshore Friday morning creating nice conditions with the E/NE swell whipped up by the low. Don’t wait around too long though as a strong S change will make it’s way up the coast, hitting the Illawarra by the mid afternoon, reaching Sydney by the late afternoon and the Hunter by the evening. Once these winds hit you’ll need to stick to the southern corners as bumpy to choppy conditions ruin the smoother offshore conditions from earlier in the day. 

The weekend and next week

Early Saturday morning will still have a bit of morning sickness with light S winds. By mid morning an offshore breeze will develop cleaning things up nicely. The E/NE swell will combine with a new mid period S swell whipped up by the strong winds with the S change moving up the coast on Friday afternoon. Expect waves around the 3ft+ mark, more like 4ft for the Hunter. 

Another stronger SW change will move through on Sunday cooling the air temperature down but keeping things clean. Waves will be smaller early in the morning as the previous days S swell fades out and the new S swell begins to build. 

This larger S swell will originate from S and and W of Tassie and continue to be reinforced by more local S winds east of Tassie and up the entire east coast. Waves will begin to build Sunday afternoon and peak into Monday around the 4-6ft mark before beginning to ease on Tuesday.

Winds will continue out of the SW on Monday but ease a bit as the day goes on shifting SE by the late afternoon. Tuesday looks to be the pick of the days though as NW winds clean things up in the morning before strengthening out of the NE in the afternoon. There’ll still be at least 4-5ft of swell early Tuesday, easing slowly throughout the day.

Winds look to be out of the N on Wednesday as winds filter in ahead of yet another S change due to arrive late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. More on that in Friday’s update.

Comments

SimonJ's picture
SimonJ's picture
SimonJ Wednesday, 7 Apr 2021 at 2:23pm

Anyone got some suggestions (without giving away your favorite local break) for surf Friday morning somewhere between Newcastle and avoca, preferably not Newcastle away from comp/crowds. Iam coming back from Hunter valley to Sydney

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Wednesday, 7 Apr 2021 at 2:29pm

Well just get out Google maps and have a crack. Lots of beaches open to the swell and offshore.

Halfscousehalfcockneyfullaussie's picture
Halfscousehalfcockneyfullaussie's picture
Halfscousehalfc... Wednesday, 7 Apr 2021 at 4:32pm

Terrigal beach near the rock pool should have fantastic conditions in this swell Scott j

trifish's picture
trifish's picture
trifish Thursday, 8 Apr 2021 at 5:00pm

Ha ha

joesydney's picture
joesydney's picture
joesydney Wednesday, 7 Apr 2021 at 8:00pm

Crackneck......go and live a little or die

Supafreak's picture
Supafreak's picture
Supafreak Wednesday, 7 Apr 2021 at 2:47pm
Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Wednesday, 7 Apr 2021 at 2:52pm
yodai's picture
yodai's picture
yodai Wednesday, 7 Apr 2021 at 3:49pm

So swell for Merewether contest way down on what monday report was suggesting?
Hard to see 2 1/2 good days of swell?

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Wednesday, 7 Apr 2021 at 4:05pm

Not way down, and looks like about that re swell, 2 1/2 days. Pity about the big morning tides. But should be a mix of fun swells to 3-4ft from tomorrow afternoon through Saturday.

jez's picture
jez's picture
jez Thursday, 8 Apr 2021 at 8:35am

Any chance of a mysto long period south swell for SSW swell magnets today and friday morning?

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Thursday, 8 Apr 2021 at 8:45am

That's just background, easing energy from the progression seen early this week. There was one trailing but unfavourably aligned polar front linked to the long-period energy but I wouldn't expect much more than 2ft.

brownie48's picture
brownie48's picture
brownie48 Thursday, 8 Apr 2021 at 11:19am

Not sure about that, there are 4ft sets out of the south if you find the right swell magnet, same as yesterday, really lully but they are there and it seems to pulse as the tide is running out.

I surfed 2 vastly different south facing locations a long way apart in the last 2 days and both days have had some solid sets

FrazP's picture
FrazP's picture
FrazP Thursday, 8 Apr 2021 at 7:35pm

Def Sth swell in water this arvo

jez's picture
jez's picture
jez Friday, 9 Apr 2021 at 9:53am

Gotta love the under the radar south swells...

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Friday, 9 Apr 2021 at 9:54am

What size ya find?

jez's picture
jez's picture
jez Friday, 9 Apr 2021 at 1:04pm

unfortunately no surf for me today after all, but I benefit from swellnet's mysto south swell advice very often.