Weekend looks pretty good, with moderate storm activity in the Central Indian Ocean sending another moderate W/SW swell towards WA.
Wave heights are trending steadily upwards at Cape du Couedic, which is a good sign - as opposed to a J-curve, which often denotes an event of shorter duration.
Stronger fronts push up into the Tasman from later Wed, bringing a SW flow and bigger S swell as we head to the end of the week.
So, here we are, on the cusp of a major winteresque swell (and weather) pattern.
More E swell and SE winds into the medium term as the high sets up another trade flow through the Coral Sea. This will see increasing surf through the CQ region from Fri becoming chunky next week.
Stronger fronts push up into the Tasman from later Wed, bringing a S'ly flow and bigger S swell as we head to the end of the week.
Stronger fronts push up into the Tasman from later Wed, bringing a SW flow and bigger S swell as we head to the end of the week.
These lows will coalesce to form a large primary system by Sunday, but the resulting swell will still be too westerly for the South Arm on Monday.
There’s a whole stack of swell on the way too, though initially it’ll be very westerly in direction, originating from a powerful low spinning up immediately south of West Oz that’ll drive a strong front through the Bight.
TThe associated fetch is lining up in the best part of the Vicco swell window (relative to surf size and consistency), and will remain slow moving as it reaches maturity, drawn out over an impressive 30-odd hours or so, which helps to exaggerate eventual surf size above the usual model expectations. It's not a common event.
