Very large surf ahead, plus favourable windows to boot

Ben Matson picture
Ben Matson (thermalben)

Victorian Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 13th May)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

  • Small windy weekend ahead, maybe some OK open beaches early Sat
  • Very windy Mon with rapidly building swells
  • Very large Tues with winds veering W/NW, ideal for super protected/novelty spots
  • Large and easing Wed but winds going back W/SW (early W/NW in TQ)
  • S'lies for Thurs
  • Small swell and E'lies next Fri - Mon, ideal for open beaches

Recap

Steady 4ft surf west of Melbourne on Thursday still pushed the 6ft mark east of Melbourne, before easing slightly to 3ft+ and 4-6ft respectively this morning ahead of a further slow decline in size through the day. Conditions have been clean with light winds. 

This weekend (May 14 - 15)

No real changes to the weekend outlook, with freshening N’ly winds tending NW through Saturday and then becoming fresh and gusty into Sunday.

Today’s swell will continue to bottom out into Saturday. If we’re super lucky, the Surf Coast swell magnets may pick up stray 2-3ft sets early, but by and large we’re looking at slow 1-2ft waves for the most part, even smaller into the afternoon. 

East of Melbourne will be a little bigger (3-4ft easing to 2-3ft) but there’ll only be a brief window of opportunity at exposed beaches before it becomes blown out. Don't get your hopes up.

Sunday has a minor swell increase on the cards, but gusty NW winds will confine the best conditions to the Surf Coast and there won’t really be enough size or consistency to worry about - maybe some occasional 2ft sets if we’re lucky. East or Melbourne will be generally a write off under these conditions. 

Next week (May 16 onwards)

The models have swung back and forth regarding the upcoming storm track (relative to its proximity to the Vic coast), and therefore the impact it’ll  have on local surf conditions. However we’re now much closer to the event so confidence is becoming stronger on what we’ll see.

And that is…. A lot of wind. And a LOT of swell. 

Monday will kick off with moderate swells and strong to gale force NW tending W/NW winds, even W’ly through the day, as a series of significant fronts cross through Bass Strait. 

The parent low to these fronts is a complex beast, already beginning to undergo cyclonegensis in a few regions, as a polar low (off Antarctica, south of WA) and a cut-off low in the western Bight.

These lows will coalesce to form a large primary system by Sunday - generating a mix of mid-range swells from the W/SW quadrant, and surf size will build correspondingly through Monday - let’s peg the morning around 3-4ft in Torquay with the afternoon likely to push 6ft+ (bigger east of Melbourne, of course). But with the westerly gales, only protected spots will be worthwhile.

Tuesday will see a peak in size, originating from a powerful front wrapping around the northern flank of the primary low, late Sunday into Monday (see below). Direction will slowly turn from the W/SW to the SW through the day, suggesting a peak into the afternoon.

I really don’t want to over-egg the omelette, but the associated fetch is lining up in the best part of the Vicco swell window (relative to surf size and consistency), and will remain slow moving as it reaches maturity, drawn out over an impressive 30-odd hours or so, which helps to exaggerate eventual surf size above the usual model expectations. It's not a common event.

What this means is that we’re looking at a very large, powerful surf in all areas on Tuesday. How big? In Wednesday’s forecast I mentioned a general size range of 6-8ft+ surf along the Surf Coast, with a chance for 8-10ft+ sets at the swell magnets - and if anything I feel a little more confident in this outlook (could it push higher? Wouldn't rule it out).

Of course, not all locations will see the upper end of this size range, but regionally speaking, the model guidance suggests Tuesday's swell event could push up into the top 5-10% of Victorian swell events we might see in a year, based on size.

As for conditions, the timing of the swell peak will be as a third front stands up just to our south-west, which should tweak the synoptic westerly flow to the W/NW. There’s even a chance some parts of the Surf Coast will pick up a NW airstream at times. 

East of Melbourne will be even bigger at the open beaches on Tuesday, so it’ll be sheltered bays and points for surfable options, and the odd novelty spot.

There'll be a heck of a lot of water moving around at every coast, so choose a location according to your ability.

Wave heights will then gradually ease through Wednesday - initially still quite large, though perhaps a foot or two down from Tuesday’s peak. However we’ll be on the backside of the frontal progression by this time so the synoptic flow will tend SW of W across most regions. The Surf Coast often sees early W/NW outflows under these circumstances and so early morning should be the focus again.

Looking further ahead, and the western flank of the LWT associated with this pattern will clip Victoria into Thursday, pushing winds to the southern quadrant ahead of an easterly flow from Friday thru’ Monday as a high pressure system sets up south of the state and a surface trough develops over Western Australia. 

We’ll see easing size from Friday onwards, in fact we’re now looking at a spell of small waves (even some E’ly windswell) thanks to a blocking pattern upstream diverting Southern Ocean fronts away from our swell window.

So, make the most of this active period as it’ll be back to the open beaches by next weekend, maybe for a few days too.

Have a great weekend, see you Monday!

Comments

michael_birdsnest's picture
michael_birdsnest's picture
michael_birdsnest Friday, 13 May 2022 at 4:29pm

Doesn't look too windy for Tues/Wed? BOM saying 15-20km.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Friday, 13 May 2022 at 4:30pm

15-20km/hr = 8-10kts.

But yeah, expecting plenty of wind. 20kts or so, occ higher gusts.

Frodge's picture
Frodge's picture
Frodge Friday, 13 May 2022 at 4:43pm

Thanks for the write up Ben, always a good read - at the peak of Tuesday's swell, are we still looking at a W/SW swell direction?

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Friday, 13 May 2022 at 4:48pm

Ahh, missed that, soz. Slow turn from W/SW to SW (have added it in to the notes).

Frodge's picture
Frodge's picture
Frodge Friday, 13 May 2022 at 5:07pm

Thanks Ben - Looking forward to Monday's update.

Walk around G's picture
Walk around G's picture
Walk around G Friday, 13 May 2022 at 4:53pm

Awesome.

rogerdodger's picture
rogerdodger's picture
rogerdodger Friday, 13 May 2022 at 6:28pm

By not over egging the omelette, I hope you haven't over egged the omelette...LOL.
Cheers for the update Ben. Great work.

Age's picture
Age's picture
Age Friday, 13 May 2022 at 6:56pm

What sort of swell period are we looking at for Tuesday Ben?

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Friday, 13 May 2022 at 7:07pm

Probably 16-17 seconds.

SurfLad's picture
SurfLad's picture
SurfLad Friday, 13 May 2022 at 7:15pm

A bit of pre indo training.. love it !

Mr.Tee on a long board's picture
Mr.Tee on a long board's picture
Mr.Tee on a lon... Friday, 13 May 2022 at 7:31pm

My car is now working and some very protected spots well inside in W.P, that seldom get waves, could be working. I am game for it !.

billie's picture
billie's picture
billie Saturday, 14 May 2022 at 10:42am

I have put a tracking device on your car and will be following you all over the wp like a ninja

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno Saturday, 14 May 2022 at 11:49am

It's all happened at just the right time Mr T. Good stuff & new transfer case will smile on you in snow & along 4x4 surf tracks :)

ruckus's picture
ruckus's picture
ruckus Saturday, 14 May 2022 at 2:47pm

Good to hear you’re mobile again and going to score from all reports :) Nothing worse than been grounded whether it be injury, transport, other commitments when a solid swell is running and the winds are in reasonable cooperation

Remigogo's picture
Remigogo's picture
Remigogo Friday, 13 May 2022 at 8:03pm

I have most recently been a centre bearing away from my nook or cranny.

Go charging tomorrow cobber.

tommy southcoast's picture
tommy southcoast's picture
tommy southcoast Friday, 13 May 2022 at 8:55pm

At this rate Ben you might get swapped in permanently!

ruckus's picture
ruckus's picture
ruckus Saturday, 14 May 2022 at 6:57am

Damn finally another one of those swells where I want to be in about 15 locations at once. Fark you teleportation technology, plenty of time between drinks and still nothing *slams fist on table

geek's picture
geek's picture
geek Saturday, 14 May 2022 at 9:48am

Great week to be stuck in the worst capital city in Australia…Darwin. FFS

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno Saturday, 14 May 2022 at 11:51am

Ah well you can um, er, ah, um...

I did enjoy looking up at the sky when in Dawin.

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone Saturday, 14 May 2022 at 12:44pm

Haha. No 1 activity on TripAdvisor!!

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno Saturday, 14 May 2022 at 2:29pm

Had I stayed longer it might have descended into vice

Cannonball running to Katherine was fun though, the bottom suspension of the VZ hiremobile tended to bottom out on the bumps/corners at 155 so I backed off a little

ruckus's picture
ruckus's picture
ruckus Saturday, 14 May 2022 at 2:44pm

Hmmmmm wonder if the PNB will be up & running again by next week. It will be interesting to see the numbers.. Does anyone know / have any updates with what’s going on with it?

Cheers as always too Benny :)

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Saturday, 14 May 2022 at 2:56pm

Not sure, will see if we can find out.

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone Saturday, 14 May 2022 at 3:27pm

Its funny. Its offline and it becomes a concern. But if it’s online, I don’t really use it.

ruckus's picture
ruckus's picture
ruckus Saturday, 14 May 2022 at 4:27pm

Not the slightest concern Bone but just interested on some numbers & reference some embedded pulses. Its all a learning experience

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone Sunday, 15 May 2022 at 7:56pm

Sorry. Context was it became a concern for me all of sudden whilst it’s been done. I like data

Walk around G's picture
Walk around G's picture
Walk around G Saturday, 14 May 2022 at 3:34pm

The next swells going to give the buoy mooring a shake up, might be just what is needed.

pigdog's picture
pigdog's picture
pigdog Saturday, 14 May 2022 at 3:33pm

im not certain but i think these are university trial ones

https://vicwaves.com.au/

Walk around G's picture
Walk around G's picture
Walk around G Saturday, 14 May 2022 at 3:37pm

Oh nice, thanks for that.

ruckus's picture
ruckus's picture
ruckus Saturday, 14 May 2022 at 4:03pm

Thanks a lot PD, now I have 7 buoy windows open in anticipation haha

Mr.Tee on a long board's picture
Mr.Tee on a long board's picture
Mr.Tee on a lon... Sunday, 15 May 2022 at 7:52pm

My camp site is booked and I will be surfing two days in a row with these off shore winds and large swell in operation. I do remember one year in Autumn or winter at W.P. when the surf was so big it just dumped me each time and put me into the washing machine of doom !.
:-0

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot Monday, 16 May 2022 at 10:59am

Be careful MrTee

Pete7's picture
Pete7's picture
Pete7 Monday, 16 May 2022 at 11:44am

I pity the fool;)

Dx3's picture
Dx3's picture
Dx3 Monday, 16 May 2022 at 3:11pm

Ben, I'm guessing Craig is on leave, hence the delayed reports the last week or so?

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Monday, 16 May 2022 at 3:20pm

Yep. Will be up soon. Keen for an update, eh?

Frodge's picture
Frodge's picture
Frodge Monday, 16 May 2022 at 3:23pm

There are only so many times I can hit refresh.

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot Monday, 16 May 2022 at 3:30pm

Ya killin us Ben

Jono's picture
Jono's picture
Jono Monday, 16 May 2022 at 3:38pm

Here ya go..."Huge and clean"

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno Monday, 16 May 2022 at 3:35pm

Yeah pretty keen. Building today, lully with the hint of size. Yesterday small 2ftish for us, with wind but you could see the new swell in the water even then.

Dx3's picture
Dx3's picture
Dx3 Monday, 16 May 2022 at 3:45pm

After Friday's 5-10% type comments and omlette cookings.... yes I am keen.

yourightgeezer's picture
yourightgeezer's picture
yourightgeezer Monday, 16 May 2022 at 4:02pm

Cmon guy

KARIO's picture
KARIO's picture
KARIO Monday, 16 May 2022 at 4:21pm

You might think somebody went surfing and forgot to push the "send" button !

just kidding. maximum respect to the forecasters team.

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno Monday, 16 May 2022 at 4:38pm

That's how the old fm surf report would work way back when on the good days

ruckus's picture
ruckus's picture
ruckus Monday, 16 May 2022 at 7:29pm

I for one liked the suspense! Besides its on the way as confirmed with my own eyes ;)

I like the words captured fetch and beyond theoretical estimates. Thanks as usual Benny, great write up/s