Lots of S swell this week as fronts strafe the lower Tasman

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Steve Shearer (freeride76)

Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon May 16th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

  • Small S swell pulse Wed with offshore winds
  • Bigger pulse Thurs peakingFri with SW winds
  • Leftovers Sat, easing further Sun with light winds
  • More S swell on the cards for Tues/Wed next week, check back for updates


Small clean waves over the weekend with 2-3ft surf Sat, easing back to 1-2ft surf Sun. Today has seen continuing small 2ft surf from the NE with mostly offshore winds as a series of fronts cross the state. 

This week and next (May 16 - 27)

A deep, slow moving polar low well to the south of the continent (which is generating large surf for Victoria) is driving a W’ly flow the state. Fronts with embedded troughs are pushing into the Tasman with some small pulses of refracted S swell associated with them. 

Stronger fronts push up into the Tasman from later Wed, bringing a SW flow and bigger S swell as we head to the end of the week.

In the short run Tuesday remains tiny with the first pulse of S swell proper arriving Wed, with some sets to 2-3ft at S facing beaches, biggest in the a’noon and clean under continuing W winds, tending W/SW through the a’noon.

Stronger S swell fills in Wed, as gales track NE past Tasmania, with surf to 3-4ft at S facing beaches expected and fresh W winds tending SW through the a’noon.

A deeper S’ly fetch then brings the biggest surf of the week on Fri with sets to 4-5ft at S facing beaches and fresh SSW to S winds.

Leftovers from the S on Sat will see 3ft sets, easing during the day but winds will tend SW to SSE as a weak high pressure ridge builds as a High tracks towards the state.

One more pulse of S’ly groundswell then supplies some fun surf Sun in the 2-3ft range at S facing beaches with winds tending light W’ly as the high moves across the state.

Into next week and another pulse of S’ly groundswell is on the cards for Tues/Wed as a deep low passing under the state tracks NE as it enters the lower Tasman. GFS is far more bullish on this prospect than EC, so we’ll pencil in 3-4ft as a ballpark figure for Tues/Wed next week and finesses the details as models come into alignment.

Check back Wed for a fresh update.