Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 30th April)

Best Days: Thurs: fun south swell with good winds, mainly after lunch. Sun/Mon/Tues: solid south swell.

Recap: Small leftover surf on Tuesday (the Mon/Tues S/SE pulse never really amounted to much in Sydney, unfortunately), with tiny conditions this morning. A southerly change is advancing along the southern NSW coast and should reach Sydney in the next few hours.

This week (May 1-2)

Feels kinda nice to start the forecast with a clean slate today, rather than having lingering, questionable south swells on the radar like we did on Monday. With hardly any motion in the ocean today it’ll be much easier to monitor the incoming signals over the coming days.

A cold front is pushing up the coast right now and it’ll generate a short range south swell for Thursday. This swell won’t be overly special, favouring south facing beaches with the most size (models seem pretty close with around 3-4ft or so, smaller elsewhere), however it looks like the early session may be marred by a lingering southerly wobble on the surface. 

However winds should be SW in some regions at dawn (i.e. Northern Beaches, less likely in the Hunter and Cronulla though) and will tend variable through the middle of the day before swinging NE in the late afternoon as a small high develops across the region.

As such, the best surf will probably occur through the middle of the day - no need for an early dash if you have the flexibility. 

A slight easing trend will happen through the afternoon, ahead of a more accelerated decrease in size through Friday as gusty W/NW winds envelop the region (there’s a chance for a brief window of N’ly winds ahead of the change, but it’ll be an hour or two at best from dawn, if it happens at all). So aim for the swell magnets on Friday and keep your expectations low.

This weekend (May 3-4)

Oooh yeah, we’ve got a complex weekend for surfers and weather watchers alike. A developing low off the South Coast on Saturday morning - just east of Batemans Bay, according to the latest model guidance - will initially strengthen W/NW winds about the Sydney and Hunter regions, with more SW winds south of Wollongong and S/SW in the Far South. 

A secondary low developing east of Tasmania at the same time is also a noteworthy addition, as it’ll develop an extra source of southerly swell for the region (although with a later arrival time).

But back to the primary low off the South Coast. At the moment, it’s a really tough call to make regarding NSW's surf prospects because the low is expected to initially remain very close to the mainland. So, the swell generating potential is likely to be positioned within a small, narrow strip immediately off the coast. Furthermore, the present timing of the low’s development suggests we won’t see an appreciable kick in new swell - at least in the Sydney/Hunter regions - until well after dark on Saturday. 

So apart from a building local windswell across the Far South and South Coasts on Saturday, it looks like the main surf regions of the Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra will be tiny with gusty offshores. But, I’ll revise these timings on Friday as there’ll be a lot more confidence by then.

Sunday is where we’ll probably see all of the action from this low, and although it’s difficult to be very confident on both the size and the timing (due to the low’s expected close proximity to the mainland), I think we’re on track for a solid, punchy south swell in the 4-6ft range at south facing beaches (maybe a few bigger bombs in the Hunter region). If you had to hedge your bets on when we’d see the most size, it’s likely to be later in the day rather than earlier.

Winds are expected to remain W/SW across the Sydney and Hunter coasts but they’ll probably veer SW and then S/SW with increasing southerly latitude - so this, along with the swell’s acute southerly direction, will limit the surf potential in the south of the state on Sunday.

Let’s check back on Friday to see how the models are handling this low - there’s even a chance for an upgrade with Sunday’s size.

Longer term (May 5 onwards)

The weekend’s low looks like it’s going to move slowly SE, to be located in the central/southern Tasman by Monday. This suggests a continuation of heavy southerly swells for southern NSW through Monday and Tuesday, possibly of a similar size seen by late Sunday. Winds should also remain favourably offshore too thanks to yet another approaching mid-latitude low from the west.

This next low also looks to be a swell producer for southern NSW, probably some time later Wednesday or Thursday once its cleared east of Tasmania. So the second half of next week is certainly looking very active with plenty of south swell on the cards. More on this in Friday’s updated forecast notes.