Southern Tasmanian Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday July 11th)

Best Days: Tomorrow, Monday afternoon, Tuesday, Thursday next week onwards

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small to moderate sized mid-period SW swell for tomorrow, easing Sun
• N/NW tending variable winds tomorrow, N-N/NW Sun
• Moderate sized mid-period SW swell Mon with strong W/SW winds, easing a touch and swinging W/NW
• Easing swell Tue with N/NW winds
• Moderate + sized run of W/SW groundswell likely from Thursday through next weekend

Recap

Our fun mid-period SW swell held the 2ft range yesterday and this morning we’ve still got 1-2ft of inconsistent swell with clean conditions.

This weekend and next week (Jul 12 - 18)

A strengthening cold front moving through this afternoon is likely to kick up a late increase in close-range W/SW swell, with strong to gale-force SW winds due to persist south of us this evening before the system moves further east tomorrow.

It’s not looking as slow moving as expected through Wednesday and with this, the localised mid-period SW swell looks to come in 2ft+ tomorrow, holding most of the day before easing Sunday.

Conditions look great with a N/NW tending variable breeze, more N-N/NE through Sunday as the swell fades from 1-2ft.

Monday still looks dynamic with another strong frontal system due to move through Sunday evening, bringing a fetch of strong to sub-gale-force W/SW-SW winds directly south of us.

This should produce a consistent pulse of mid-period S/SW swell to 3ft with early W/SW winds easing and tending W/NW into the afternoon. Improving surf, easing later is due, smaller Tuesday under N/NW offshores.

Longer term, we’re looking at a significant polar frontal progression firing up around and east of the Heard Island region from this weekend, with multiple storms expected to generate an expansive, elongated fetch of severe-gale westerly winds, with embedded storm-force winds likely, moving closer towards us through the week.

This looks to generate a moderate + sized run of inconsistent, long-period W/SW groundswell from Thursday through next weekend with great winds.

More on this Monday, have a great weekend!