Southern Tasmanian Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday May 18th)

Best Days: This afternoon, beginners tomorrow morning, later Saturday and Sunday morning

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Tiny, easing SW swell tomorrow with N/NW winds
• Small, inconsistent W/SW groundswell for later Sat and Sun AM with N/NW winds Sat, N/NW tending variable Sun
• Decent swell likely from mid-late next week

Recap

A tiny mix of W/SW swells came in yesterday with clean conditions and 1-1.5ft sets, while today we’ve got a localised W/SW swell on the build, increasing from a close-spaced 1-1.5ft this morning, more to 1-2ft this afternoon.

This week and next (Jun 19 - 27)

Today’s increase in localised swell was generated by the remnants of the low linked to yesterday’s groundswell moving across the state, with a fetch of weak SW winds continuing south of us into this afternoon before moving east overnight.

With this we’ll see easing 1-1.5ft waves tomorrow but with offshore N/NW tending variable winds.

We’re then looking at tiny surf through Friday and Saturday morning, with a very inconsistent, long-range W/SW groundswell due to start showing into the afternoon, easing Sunday morning.

This swell was generated by a great polar frontal progression that formed over the weekend and pushed across the Heard Island region earlier this week while generating fetches of gale to severe-gale W/SW winds.

Last night, the final stages of the progression still saw severe-gale W/SW winds being generated south-west of Western Australia (more in our swell window), with a small, inconsistent groundswell to 1-2ft due later Saturday and Sunday morning.

Winds on Saturday look N/NW all day, with N/NW tending variable breezes Sunday, creating clean conditions for this swell.

Now, as touched on earlier in the week, we should see increasing Southern Ocean frontal activity firing up in our closer-range swell window through early-mid next week, bringing some decent sized W/SW-SW swell from Wednesday onwards with favourable winds. More on this Friday though.