South Arm Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 3rd May)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Very small surf for the rest of the week
• Small new swell for the weekend but generally onshore
• Small surf potential next week at this stage

Recap

Small surf for last few days, nothing special. 

This week (May 4 - 5)

No major change for the rest of the week. 

Today's small surf will gradually ease through Thursday and Friday, so there won't be enough size around to bother with. 

Light variable winds are expected Thursday before freshening northerlies swing westerly through Friday. A small late bump in size is possible but there won't be anything to get excited about.

This weekend (May 6 - 7)

We've got some new swell energy expected for the weekend but local winds look a little iffy.

Friday’s late frontal passage will evolve into a deepening Tasman Low just east of Bass Strait, which will steer southerly winds into the southern Tasmanian coastline both days. 

No major strength is expected in the wind - for now - however it'll certainly be enough to take the sheen off conditions.

As for swell, we have some new energy inbound though the large low pressure system generating it is much better aimed into SA and Victoria (see below). We'll see smaller sideband energy filtering into the South Arm, topping out at about 2ft+ both days, but only at a handful of swell magnets. Most breaks will remain pretty small. 

Friday will allow the opportunity to scrutinise the wind outlook more closely and identify potential windows of opportunity, so let’s take a look then.

Next week (May 8 onwards)

Sunday’s suggested Tasman Low hints at the development of a regional block, which may steer a passage of strong fronts to the south early next week, reducing their size potential across Tasmanian waters. That being said, strong activity in our far swell window later this week and over the weekend is expected to generate some really nice groundswell for the state, arriving Tuesday or thereabouts. However local winds are of concern at the moment, under the influence of the Tasman Low (i.e. southerly). 

Let’s take another pass on Friday.