Craig

Slow but increasing activity next week

Southern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 27th May)

Best Days: Beginners tomorrow, Saturday, next week

Recap

The swell has hung in there around 1-2ft both yesterday and today with great conditions, a little above the expected 1ft or so.

This week and weekend (May 28 - 31)

While yesterday and today provided surfable small waves, tomorrow looks to actually become tiny though there'll still likely be peelers for beginners.

The models are showing an uptick in size but this is from a westerly swell, generated too north of our swell window.

We're still set to see unfavourably tracking storms from under WA, south-east through our swell window over the coming days.

The first of these pushing south-east tomorrow will generate a burst of W/SW gales on the shelf tomorrow evening and early Friday, producing a small pulse of SW swell Saturday afternoon to 2ft or so.

Strengthening N/NE winds will create OK conditions, clean all day Sunday but back to tiny.

Next week we've got a lot more activity on the way as the storm track pushes further east and under us, bringing building swells with a peak likely mid-week. More on this Friday though.

Comments

superfish's picture
superfish's picture
superfish commented Thursday, 28 May 2020 at 2:18pm

is this weekends swell mentioned up here 260 degrees straight W ? or have the models just missed it ? if so why ?

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Thursday, 28 May 2020 at 2:47pm

It's a flukey swell source and isn't looking too crash hot, will see what tomorrow's update brings.

Solitude's picture
Solitude's picture
Solitude commented Thursday, 28 May 2020 at 7:30pm

Hi guys.

Just a note from warmer climes.
How has autumn treated tassy for waves?
Dandandan?

Hope you lot are scoring.

dandandan's picture
dandandan's picture
dandandan commented Thursday, 28 May 2020 at 9:21pm

My initial instinct was to say it's been rubbish, but reflecting on it there's been 3 or 4 point swells that have had their moments, occasionally good banks on the open beaches for under shoulder high days, and some Wedge days that have been excellent. East Coast looks like it has been pumping but Covid has kept it for locals only. Even Tamawatu has had some good days judging by some pics I've seen.

Proper cold most of the time now though, so we'd all probably like to come to wherever those warmer climes are for a few months Solitude.

Solitude's picture
Solitude's picture
Solitude commented Friday, 29 May 2020 at 7:42am

Sounds like a bit of variety at least. Is it generally a slow burn from autumn through winter as to when your most consistent time is?

On another note, is there not many Swellnetians in Tas (judging by the lack of activity in forecast notes comments section)? Same seems to be in the West.

haggis's picture
haggis's picture
haggis commented Friday, 29 May 2020 at 1:18pm

Most of my mates don't subscribe to swellnet. They rely on the three day forecast and general weather maps. I like the long weather forecasts and swellnet are really great at getting back to your emails and posts. We don't have any of the cams you get on the mainland. A couple of years ago, swellnet said they were looking to put in a few cams around Tassie (5- 7 locations), which would probably put swellnet membership up (by how much - I don't know). I reckon they cost a fair bit of coin to maintain when they are in, and if you don't have enough people in Tassie subscribed, why would you? There is one surf life saving cam at Clifton you can look at but it is not as good as swellnet's ones on the mainland. I only live 15 minutes from the Hobart locals, so I just drive down. Mention a cam to a south arm local you are risking your life anyway, which I can understand.

Solitude's picture
Solitude's picture
Solitude commented Friday, 29 May 2020 at 2:57pm

Yeah interesting Haggis. As you don't have to be a subscriber to comment in the forecast notes, I guess it highlights the different sub-surf cultures around Australia. Different ways of sharing info (and keeping things quiet), different ways to converse. I like it.

haggis's picture
haggis's picture
haggis commented Friday, 29 May 2020 at 6:41pm

Cheers Solitude