South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon 2nd June)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small fun blend of E and S swells Tues with offshore winds 
• Front and low in Tasman brings as spike in S swell Wed (MNC), solid across the region Thurs, easing Fri- favouring NENSW for size
• Strong SW-S winds Wed/Thurs, easing and tending more W’ly Fri with light SE winds in the a’noon
• Small blend of S swells this weekend with light offshore winds most of the day (may tend to light N-NE breezes in the a’noon)
• Looking quiet now next week with offshore winds and tiny surf

Recap

SE-E/SE winds made a mess of most spots over the weekend although there was plenty of swell in the water. Sat saw size in the 3-4ft range with long period S swell on Sun adding energy, mostly to NENSW S exposed breaks which were in the 4ft range. Still a mix of swells today from the S, E and E/SE in the 3ft range with leftover lump being ironed out by light or offshore winds under rainy conditions.

D-bah making the best out of it, with size and some shape

This week (Jun 2-6)

A trough of low pressure fed by moist Coral Sea air is currently moving south off the SEQLD/NENSW coast, forming a small surface low later today into tomorrow. A front moving into the Tasman Tues then interacts with the low, causing a robust deepening of the low and a complex pattern as a trough spins off the low and moves north while a further trough of low pressure forms off to the south. Backed by a high to the south of the Bight we’ll see plenty of size from the south from this pattern this week, with conditions improving into the weekend as high pressure moves up over NSW.

In the short run, Tues will still be the low point in swell energy this week with a mix of minor E/SE swell from winds feeding into the weak surface low, and easing S swell. We should see some small, fun surf to 2ft on the beachies from this combo. Conditions will be clean for most of the day under W’ly winds as the low passes to the south before a W/SW-SW flow kicks in later in the a’noon as the low starts to deepen and the front pushes through the lower Tasman. 

The energy cranks right up Wed across NENSW, trickling into SEQLD later in the day as strong winds to low end gales develop off the NSW South to Central Coast and into the Tasman and then push northwards around a trough. Local winds will quickly tend fresh/strong SW, tending S/SW-S’ly through the day and we’ll see a steep increase in mostly short range S swell- building from 3ft to 5-6ft through the a’noon in NENSW, reaching 3ft by close of play in SEQLD. Keep expectations pegged fairly low as far as quality, it’ll be raw and ragged at most places, much smaller and cleaner into more sheltered corners due to low swell periods. 

Thursday still looks pretty raw with fresh morning SW breezes tending fresh/strong S/SW through S’ly through the morning as the bulk of the strong wind moves northwards with a trough. That northwards moving fetch will push a strong local S swell to it’s peak with size to 8ft (bigger 8-10ft at S facing river bars) at NENSW S facing beaches, grading smaller into regional points and reaching 4-5ft in SEQLD (possibly some 6ft sets at D-bah).

Conditions improve for Fri as high pressure moves over Northern NSW. Settled weather with light offshore W-W/SW winds and light a’noon SE breezes will see classic surface conditions through the day. Surf-wise, things look pretty good. A secondary low under the South Island anchors a fetch well SW of the South Island Wed into Thurs and that should supply small but better quality S swell into Fri as well as easing more local swell. The fetch is a little off-axis for the east coast so size will be limited but all swell trains together should see surf in the 4-5ft range in NENSW, easing, with size to 3-4ft in SEQLD at S facing beaches, easing during the a’noon.

This weekend (June 7-8)

S-S/SE swell from the South Island fetch will be the main swell source for the weekend and it will be on a slow easing trend as the fetch moves north and rotates even further away from the east coast swell window.

Conditions look to stay absolutely premium though for both days with a synoptic W’ly flow through the weekend as a large low approaches from below the Bight and stalls- establishing W’ly winds right up to the sub-tropics. We should see those winds tend more W through NW on Sun, possibly tending to light NE breezes in the a’noon.

Fun sized S-S/SE swell leftovers to 3ft on Sat, easing a little into Sun. 

Next week (Jun 9 onwards)

At this stage, next week looks quiet.

Low pressure stalls near Tasmania with a continuing W-NW flow across NSW and easing surf through Mon.

The low then weakens and enters the Tasman, with weak winds on the Southern Flank not producing much in the way of surf at all and a W’ly flow continuing through the week.

We’ll be watching for signs of intensification as the low hovers in the Tasman or even spawns a new low off the North Coast. There’s no concrete model guidance yet so we’ll pencil in a working week of small surf next week, with some potential for surf to develop weekend 14-15/6.

Let’s see how it shapes up through the week. 

Seeya Wed for the latest updates.