Windy S swell developing this week with conditions improving Fri into the weekend

Steve Shearer picture
Steve Shearer (freeride76)

South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon 2nd June)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

  • Small fun blend of E and S swells Tues with offshore winds 
  • Front and low in Tasman brings as spike in S swell Wed (MNC), solid across the region Thurs, easing Fri- favouring NENSW for size
  • Strong SW-S winds Wed/Thurs, easing and tending more W’ly Fri with light SE winds in the a’noon
  • Small blend of S swells this weekend with light offshore winds most of the day (may tend to light N-NE breezes in the a’noon)
  • Looking quiet now next week with offshore winds and tiny surf

Recap

SE-E/SE winds made a mess of most spots over the weekend although there was plenty of swell in the water. Sat saw size in the 3-4ft range with long period S swell on Sun adding energy, mostly to NENSW S exposed breaks which were in the 4ft range. Still a mix of swells today from the S, E and E/SE in the 3ft range with leftover lump being ironed out by light or offshore winds under rainy conditions.

D-bah making the best out of it, with size and some shape

This week (Jun 2-6)

A trough of low pressure fed by moist Coral Sea air is currently moving south off the SEQLD/NENSW coast, forming a small surface low later today into tomorrow. A front moving into the Tasman Tues then interacts with the low, causing a robust deepening of the low and a complex pattern as a trough spins off the low and moves north while a further trough of low pressure forms off to the south. Backed by a high to the south of the Bight we’ll see plenty of size from the south from this pattern this week, with conditions improving into the weekend as high pressure moves up over NSW.

In the short run, Tues will still be the low point in swell energy this week with a mix of minor E/SE swell from winds feeding into the weak surface low, and easing S swell. We should see some small, fun surf to 2ft on the beachies from this combo. Conditions will be clean for most of the day under W’ly winds as the low passes to the south before a W/SW-SW flow kicks in later in the a’noon as the low starts to deepen and the front pushes through the lower Tasman. 

The energy cranks right up Wed across NENSW, trickling into SEQLD later in the day as strong winds to low end gales develop off the NSW South to Central Coast and into the Tasman and then push northwards around a trough. Local winds will quickly tend fresh/strong SW, tending S/SW-S’ly through the day and we’ll see a steep increase in mostly short range S swell- building from 3ft to 5-6ft through the a’noon in NENSW, reaching 3ft by close of play in SEQLD. Keep expectations pegged fairly low as far as quality, it’ll be raw and ragged at most places, much smaller and cleaner into more sheltered corners due to low swell periods. 

Thursday still looks pretty raw with fresh morning SW breezes tending fresh/strong S/SW through S’ly through the morning as the bulk of the strong wind moves northwards with a trough. That northwards moving fetch will push a strong local S swell to it’s peak with size to 8ft (bigger 8-10ft at S facing river bars) at NENSW S facing beaches, grading smaller into regional points and reaching 4-5ft in SEQLD (possibly some 6ft sets at D-bah).

Conditions improve for Fri as high pressure moves over Northern NSW. Settled weather with light offshore W-W/SW winds and light a’noon SE breezes will see classic surface conditions through the day. Surf-wise, things look pretty good. A secondary low under the South Island anchors a fetch well SW of the South Island Wed into Thurs and that should supply small but better quality S swell into Fri as well as easing more local swell. The fetch is a little off-axis for the east coast so size will be limited but all swell trains together should see surf in the 4-5ft range in NENSW, easing, with size to 3-4ft in SEQLD at S facing beaches, easing during the a’noon.

This weekend (June 7-8)

S-S/SE swell from the South Island fetch will be the main swell source for the weekend and it will be on a slow easing trend as the fetch moves north and rotates even further away from the east coast swell window.

Conditions look to stay absolutely premium though for both days with a synoptic W’ly flow through the weekend as a large low approaches from below the Bight and stalls- establishing W’ly winds right up to the sub-tropics. We should see those winds tend more W through NW on Sun, possibly tending to light NE breezes in the a’noon.

Fun sized S-S/SE swell leftovers to 3ft on Sat, easing a little into Sun. 

Next week (Jun 9 onwards)

At this stage, next week looks quiet.

Low pressure stalls near Tasmania with a continuing W-NW flow across NSW and easing surf through Mon.

The low then weakens and enters the Tasman, with weak winds on the Southern Flank not producing much in the way of surf at all and a W’ly flow continuing through the week.

We’ll be watching for signs of intensification as the low hovers in the Tasman or even spawns a new low off the North Coast. There’s no concrete model guidance yet so we’ll pencil in a working week of small surf next week, with some potential for surf to develop weekend 14-15/6.

Let’s see how it shapes up through the week. 

Seeya Wed for the latest updates.

Comments

adsi's picture
adsi's picture
adsi Tuesday, 3 Jun 2025 at 9:15am

I think its time we started a kickstarter/gofundme to hire a sand dredge for the Ballina to Bruns stretch. I'm going to lose my mind watching all this swell going to waste on storm bars.

lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy Tuesday, 3 Jun 2025 at 11:11am
donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather Tuesday, 3 Jun 2025 at 12:45pm

Punching well above it's weight early on this morning. Beachies doing their best TOS wedge impersonation.

Sprout's picture
Sprout's picture
Sprout Tuesday, 3 Jun 2025 at 12:56pm

Fun lunchy, slow as and lucky to be 2ft but great shape on a bank all to myself.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Tuesday, 3 Jun 2025 at 1:01pm

East swell from the trough Don? What size?

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather Tuesday, 3 Jun 2025 at 1:30pm

Was a mix of swells hence the peaks but yes mostly out of the eastern quadrant. Generally 2-3ft but every so often a freak 3-4ft dredgey wedge set would come through.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Tuesday, 3 Jun 2025 at 1:36pm

Nice!

MidWestMonger's picture
MidWestMonger's picture
MidWestMonger Tuesday, 3 Jun 2025 at 1:39pm

Pippies cam looked peaceful until 13:30. 2 X jet ski hoons wrecking the ambience

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Tuesday, 3 Jun 2025 at 1:53pm

3ft mix of E and S here but no banks to make sense of it.

brevil's picture
brevil's picture
brevil Tuesday, 3 Jun 2025 at 2:39pm

close to the border was fun this morning ... water is still warm as

adsi's picture
adsi's picture
adsi Tuesday, 3 Jun 2025 at 3:10pm

Rubbish at the magnet i checked this morning. Just a week ago had super fun east wedges but banks were demo'd by today :(

simba's picture
simba's picture
simba Tuesday, 3 Jun 2025 at 6:02pm

drove around here low tide ,high tide didnt make any difference.....crap.......torrential rain last night .....so no banks, filthy water and a boggy mess....bring on spring

Danm's picture
Danm's picture
Danm Tuesday, 3 Jun 2025 at 6:22pm

The winds and conditions were prime for the opens on SC - good chance to escape the crowds. Rocked up early and not one bank. Checked a few km stretch and nothing. Ended up back at ole reliable with 100 others.

wavie's picture
wavie's picture
wavie Wednesday, 4 Jun 2025 at 6:37am

whats the old reliable mate? does it start with M and end with A ?

swellsam's picture
swellsam's picture
swellsam Tuesday, 3 Jun 2025 at 7:39pm

Weather forecast is sunny skies for the next 2 weeks. The endless run of swell we've had looks to be coming to a stop, apart from thursdays south swell. The forecast says westerlies and 2 foot beachies for a while, combine that with sunny skies, and i'm more than happy!

Sprout's picture
Sprout's picture
Sprout Tuesday, 3 Jun 2025 at 7:56pm

Nothing like a winter flat spell to bring the sand back too.

andy-mac's picture
andy-mac's picture
andy-mac Tuesday, 3 Jun 2025 at 7:59pm

Yep, with ya there!
Great for my grom!!! She'll be frothing.

Solitude's picture
Solitude's picture
Solitude Tuesday, 3 Jun 2025 at 9:41pm

Couldn’t give a hoot about the surf, couple of weeks of sunny skis and the potential for a blue ocean sound like heaven

dawnperiscope's picture
dawnperiscope's picture
dawnperiscope Tuesday, 3 Jun 2025 at 10:25pm

Go straight from February to August.
Do not pass autumn, do not collect 200 barrels.

scrotina's picture
scrotina's picture
scrotina Tuesday, 3 Jun 2025 at 11:11pm

lol

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Wednesday, 4 Jun 2025 at 6:24am

Haha.

andy-mac's picture
andy-mac's picture
andy-mac Wednesday, 4 Jun 2025 at 7:30am

You win the internet today! :)