South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed 30th April)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Thurs sees increasing S swells becoming sizey in the a’noon in NENSW, smaller in SEQLD
• Robust blend of S and SE swells Fri with mod/fresh S-SE winds, lighter inshore early
• Plenty of SE swell Sat, easing Sun with SE winds, lighter on the MNC
• Lot’s more SE-E/SE swell next week, potentially sizey from mid week- low confidence in specifics, check back Fri for latest updates

Recap

Yesterday saw some small, fun surf with clean conditions and a mix of S/SE-SE-E/SE swells still holding in the 2-3ft range with occ. bigger sets in NENSW, a notch smaller into SEQLD. Clean again this morning with light land breezes before S’lies freshened along the coast. Another day of small fun surf with mostly 2 occ. 3ft surf in NENSW, more 2ft in SEQLD.

Small and clean this morning- should be a steady ramp up in size from here

This week (Apr 28-May 2)

We’re seeing a ramp up in strong S’ly winds along the eastern seaboard as a dominant high (1035hPa) moves through the eastern Bight towards Tasmania with a trough on it’s leading edge moving northwards. Remnants of a low on the weekend are also sitting near New Zealand with swell generating fetches off the South Island and emerging from Cook Strait into the eastern Tasman. Vigorous S’lies and swells from the proximate and New Zealand fetches keep surf zones active into the end of the week with local winds easing into the weekend. 

In the short run we’ll see a fresh/strong S’ly flow tomorrow. Early winds may have a touch of W in them (SW-S/SW) but you’ll need to seek wind protection for the most part. Along with the S’ly surge we’ll see plenty of short range S swell build through the day and with the head of the fetch extending right up into QLD latitudes that should see more S swell move north of the border. Expect surf to build from 3-4ft to 5-6ft in NENSW (bigger 8ft surf at S facing river bars), grading smaller 2-3ft to 3-4ft at SEQLD S exposed breaks. 

Fridays sees more mod/fresh S-SE winds, though with the S-SE surge moving northwards winds should be lighter south of Yamba, especially through the a’noon. Still plenty of S through SE swell in the water from a mix of swell trains with improving swell periods, with size in the 5-6ft range in NENSW, smaller 3-4ft at S exposed breaks in SEQLD, smaller into more protected points. 

This weekend (Apr 26-27) 

No great change to the weekend f/cast. High pressure moves into the Tasman and holds a firm ridge up the sub-tropical coast, weaker in the south. That will see morning SW breezes across the MNC up to the North Coast tending to mod/fresh SE winds, with a smaller window of SW-S winds in SEQLD. 

Winds should tend more E/SE-E in NENSW on Sun, after morning SW breezes. Remaining SE in SEQLD (lighter SW inshore early on the Gold Coast) and easing through the day.
Surf-wise we should see a fun blend of S/SE-SE swells on Sat in the 4-5ft range in NENSW, a notch smaller into SEQLD at exposed breaks, smaller again into the Points.

Sunday sees a smaller but still robust swell as Tasman sea NZ swells ease out with 3-4ft of SE-E/SE swell quite widespread across the region, grading smaller into more protected points. 

Next week (Apr 28 onwards)

Swells will favour the sub-tropics next week as a dominant high tracks towards New Zealand and sets up a robust E’ly tradewind fetch through the Coral Sea and South Pacific, encroaching on the northern Tasman Sea at times.

That will see E’ly tradewind surf through next week, hovering around the 3ft range to start through Mon and Tues and potentially building a notch into the 3-4 with occ.5ft sets through the latter part of the week. 

Winds do look good though, with a small high cell expected to drift across the Northern Tablelands early next week bringing a light synoptic SW to S flow through Mon/Tues, tending similar Wed as a weak front decays as it enters the Tasman. Another high moving through the Bight looks to bring a reinforcement to the ridge and more more S-SE winds later next week.

We may see some more significant action from the E/SE-SE later next week if an E’ly dip expected to form SE of New Caledonia next week forms a surface low and tracks southwards into the Tasman Sea. 

Models are still flip flopping around on that prospect, with some runs suggesting the trade fetch contracts eastwards before another SE surge later next week as the new high pressure builds in a firm ridge.

We’ll see how it’s shaping up on Fri. Either way there’ll be plenty of E’ly trade swell in the water next week.

Seeya then!