A few small swells this weekend with S-SE swells next week favouring south of the border

Steve Shearer picture
Steve Shearer (freeride76)

South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer(issued Fri Oct 11th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

  • Small blend of swells Sat AM with light winds before an a’noon S’ly change (after dark in SEQLD)
  • Stronger S swell Sun in NENSW with fresh S/SE winds
  • Easing S-SE swells from Mon with N’ly winds
  • Flukey S groundswell for NENSW later Tues/Wed
  • Small E’ly trade swell in the mix next week
  • Increase in S-S/SE swells Tues from low in Tasman, persisting into Wed, easing Thurs/Fri - low confidence so check back Mon for latest updates

Recap

Mostly onshore and junky yesterday under a continuing SE-E flow, although local windswells did build to 3-4ft as a trough lingered off the SEQLD Coast. Much better conditions today as the trough has moved away with light winds (mostly variable land breezes tending to E-NE breezes) and fun peaks in the 2-3ft range, a notch bigger in NENSW where some leftover S swell added size and energy into the mix. 

Nice and clean finally as trough clears to the North

This weekend (Oct 12-13)

Not much change for the weekend f/cast. We have a broad front passing into the Tasman and a northwards moving trough, with a high pressure ridge filling in behind those short range features. The front will supply workable levels of S swell Sun but winds will be a problem with a a mod/fresh S’ly flow , tending SE’ly- E’ly during the day making most spots open to the S a blown out mess. 

Sat looks like much cleaner conditions under a weak, troughy flow which sees light morning breezes tending E/NE-NE before a S’ly change arrives later in the day, pushing into Coffs around early a’noon, spreading north and reaching the border around nightfall. Not much size to be had with small leftovers from the S and E offering up some peaky 2ft beachies.

Winds shift from S/SE to SE on Sun as the front moves away and mobile high pressure quickly moves into the Tasman. We may see a brief window of SW breezes across the Tweed-Byron to Gold Coast region before winds freshen, blowing out most spots apart from sheltered Points. We’ll see a mix of building short range S-SE swell to 3ft and directional S swell to 3-4ft in NENSW, smaller in SEQLD. Keep expectations low for Sun, there’ll be a rideable wave but sheltered spots will be small and open locations blown out.

Next week (Oct 14 onwards)

Still looking very dynamic next week. Mon looks nothing special with mid period  S swell trains offering up some 3-4ft surf for the morning in NENSW, but with N’ly-NE’ly winds freshening as a trough approaches. 

The trough looks to rapidly deepen into a broad surface low off the Far South or Gippsland Coast o/night Mon into Tues. There’s still model divergence over the strength and position of this low which will have material impacts on surf size and local winds so stay tuned for updates over the weekend and on Mon. Most of the surf potential is currently focussed on temperate NSW but we will see some swell from this system in the sub-tropics.

The gist of it is a N’ly wind flow Tues with small swells showing  from the southern quadrant later in the day across the MNC to North Coast. We’ll pencil in building swells to 3-4ft across NENSW S exposed breaks and adjust accordingly.  

Wed looks like a light offshore flow developing across NENSW with NE seabreezes and a small, fun blend of S/SE swells and long period S swell trains. We’ll see a wide range of sizes with NENSW S swell magnets in the 3-4ft range with bigger sets and 2-3ft surf across most S exposed breaks, grading smaller 2ft into SEQLD.

We’ll also see some small E’ly trade swells through Tues/Wed, favouring SEQLD for size but not much more than 2 to very occ. 3ft sets.

Easing swells Thurs and Fri with freshening N’lies.

Into next weekend another dynamic synoptic situation presents itself with an inland trough moving across NSW and potentially spawning a surface low off the NSW South Coast. Again, we have a range of potential surf scenarios including NE infeed swells and strong S-SE swells off the southern flank of the low depending on how it evolves. 

Way too far away to have any confidence in specifics but we’ll keep tabs over the weekend and check back in Mon.

Until then, have a great weekend!

Comments

scrotina's picture
scrotina's picture
scrotina Saturday, 12 Oct 2024 at 8:26pm

anyone find a good bank in se qld today?

Ardy's picture
Ardy's picture
Ardy Sunday, 13 Oct 2024 at 12:13pm

Not in my neck of the woods, I’m not far over the bridge & yesterday was very shiiite :(

Sprout's picture
Sprout's picture
Sprout Sunday, 13 Oct 2024 at 12:44pm

Clean 2ft at a non beachy yesterday morning. Banks? No.

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather Saturday, 12 Oct 2024 at 9:15pm

Make the most of what’s on offer Sunday Monday as it looks very spring-esq for the rest of the week.

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Sunday, 13 Oct 2024 at 1:01pm

Pretty damn fun here Sat morning.
Warm Bluewater, and a little sand wedge making great shape out of low energy 2 occ. 3ft sets.

tip-top1's picture
tip-top1's picture
tip-top1 Sunday, 13 Oct 2024 at 1:04pm

few fun ones yesty, on one of the only half decent patches of sand around,
2 ft , nice and clean ,