Slow moving STC Jasper and its supporting wind field send plenty of swell to the sub-tropics
South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 8th Dec)
Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)
- Bump in N/NE-NE swell Fri PM for SEQLD
- N/NE-NE groundswell (flukey) favouring Sunshine Coast Sat in amongst other swell trains
- Building E-E/NE cyclone associated swells over the weekend- solid Sat PM and Sun with onshore E’ly winds
- Solid E’ly swells into Mon, although easing as TC Jasper approaches NQ coast
- Easing E’ly swell Tues/Wed with continuing onshore winds
- Small S’ly groundswell Wed, easing Thurs favouring NENSW S facing beaches
- Back to small, weak swells by late next week
Continuing small bag of surf with yesterday seeing a slight bump in swell, which seemed to be a mix of SE swell and E swell. Small lines to 2ft ( the occ. 3fter on the Sunshine Coast) with light morning winds which tended NE in the a’noon. Today we are seeing more small surf in the 1-2ft range with a small bump in size expected in the a’noon as swells filter down from E’ly winds surrounding severe TC Jasper.
This weekend (Dec 9-10)
No great change to the weekend f/cast. Severe TC Jasper has been slow moving and intensifying (Category 4 now) over the last 36hrs. It’s slow (2-3kts) S/SW track between 158-156E is in the acute N/NE swell window- even though that part of the window tends to be flukey due to interference from reefs and it’s reliance on a perfect track to clear Fraser and the Breaksea Spit. That aids confidence in some steeply angled N/NE-NE groundswell from STC Jasper over the weekend. We’re already seeing N/NE swell show in QLD so expect 3-5ft surf tomorrow, with some bigger sets likely in SEQLD and a notch smaller south of the Border. Winds will be a problem, lighter E-NE in SEQLD, becoming fresh NE in NENSW, especially south of Yamba. You may have to think outside the box on this one.
The supporting wind field below Jasper thickens up Sat which should provide a well conditioned E/NE swell for Sun- up in the 4-6 ft range and widespread across the f/cast region ( a little smaller in the south towards the MNC). No great change to the winds- a notch lighter E’ly to E/NE’ly in SEQLD and more NE in NENSW. Winds should stay light enough to surf scrappy but serviceable waves on the Points- at least there’ll be heaps of size and consistency.
Next week (Dec 11 onwards)
Plenty of swell to start the week. TC Jasper is set to take a W’ly track with a Far North QLD coastal crossing now the most likely outcome. The slow forwards movement of the TC and it’s associated E’ly windfield will hold plenty of size into Mon. Expect 4-5ft surf with the occ. bigger 6ft set at outer E swell bars and Points and smaller surf inside Bays and inside Points. Winds remain onshore E-NE but should stay light enough for workable surf if you’re not too fussy.
By Tues a slow easing trend will be in place, with size slowly rolling down through the gears. Under current modelling we should still be seeing at least 4ft surf on Tues (occ. 5ft sets) and dropping down to 3ft (occ. 4ft sets) Wed. Expect surf to grade smaller from these heights the further south from Tweed-Byron you go.
Winds will remain light/mod E’ly -NE’ly through this period.
A powerful front and parent low passing under the continent and lower Tasman Sun into Mon looks too supply long period S’ly groundswell. We should see first signs of this swell at S magnets Wed in the 3-4ft range at S facing beaches in NENSW.
Easing swells from this source Thurs with a bit of workable NE windswell likely to build in over the dying S swell.
Further ahead and the troughy pattern in the Tasman Sea and over the continent looks to remain entrenched. There are signs that fronts passing under the continent will send more glancing S swells up the coast, favouring S facing beaches in NENSW. A trade-wind band in the South Pacific will supply small, background energy favouring the sub-tropics. In short, nothing major, but it looks like we should have enough swell energy to stay in the water.
Check back Mon for the latest and have a great weekend!