Small surf continues but watching the South Pacific for potential TC intrusion into the Coral Sea
South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 1st Dec)
Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)
- Small weak surf extending into the weekend with light winds
- Small S-S/SE swell Mon/Tues with S-SE winds
- Tracking potential tropical depression or TC near Solomon Is later next week, odds firming on a cyclone swell as it enters Coral Sea- check back Mon for revisions
- Building E’ly tradewind swells at a minimum likely into next weekend
Small and clean yesterday with a hot W/NW-NW flow before N'ly breezes and size in the 2ft range. Similar winds today with the MNC picking up a small signal of SE swell from a low off the South Coast and the rest of the region seeing small NE swells to 1-2ft.
This weekend (Dec 2-3)
Few tweaks the weekend f/cast, mostly in terms of local winds. Low pressure has moved off the Far South coast and is slow moving, with a broad fetch of strong E’ly winds on the southern flank of the low supplying some small 2ft SE swell to the MNC. Elsewhere we’re looking at small, weak NE swells to 1-2ft or less. A lingering trough off the MNC is maintaining a hot NW flow through the region with clean conditions for Sat morning before winds tend N/NE in the a’noon.
Light offshore winds again for Sun morning before a variable SE/NE flow as the trough stalls out and dissipates across the region. Not much surf expected with a very small weak signal from the NE in the 1-1.5ft range.
Next week (Dec 4 onwards)
Looks like a small troughy area advancing up the NSW Coast early next will steer a S-SE flow through the f/cast region, possibly light early and tending to mod/fresh SE’lies during the day. We’ll see some small S and S/SE swells, from a parent front/low which traversed the lower Tasman on the weekend and more local onshore winds. Not much to it- 2-3ft at S facing beaches and with the onshore flow keep expectations low.
Weak high pressure moving NE into the Tasman brings light land and SE seabreezes Tues, tending more E-E/NE on the MNC. Not much surf expected, just some small weak windswell, possibly tending to NE windswell in the a’noon. Nothing more than 1-2ft under current modelling.
A trough mid week brings a weak S’ly change late Wed on the MNC before stalling with potential for a small, clean morning before the change and small weak surf to 1-2ft. Again, nothing to get excited about.
Further ahead and some weather model runs are starting to look pretty damn juicy with respect to a developing TC in the South Pacific moving into the Coral Sea later next week. Still very early days but a full blown cyclone swell is now a definite possibility, possibly as early as next weekend and into the week 9/12 - initially very much favouring QLD and NENSW.
A more bog standard E-E/NE trade-swell also looks highly likely later next week and into the weekend as high pressure and the southwards moving depression/TC combine.
Obviously, expect revision, possibly major when we come back on Mon.
Until then, have a great weekend!