South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon 27th Nov)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small weak surf continues into Tues
• Bump in E/NE swell Wed from infeed into trough, tricky winds best on the Sunshine Coast, N’ly elsewhere
• Easing swells later this week, back to small, weak E-NE swells with N’ly winds 
• Small weak surf extending into the weekend and early next week
• Possible S-S/SE swell next week but low confidence in specifics- check back Wed for updates

Recap

Not much to recap for the weekend. A small, weak blend of E and NE swells in the 2ft range hung around with NE winds. There were a few shoreys around on the morning high tides and some workable beachies but all in all it was uninspiring fare. Slightly smaller and weaker today, mostly 1-1.5ft with early light winds tending N-NE through the day. Looks like N’ly quadrant winds will be with us most of the week with a few small windows available for the keen.

Very small, very weak. At least it's clean.

This week (Nov 27- Dec 1)

We’ve got a large high well south of the Bight, with inland troughs linked to a small low East of Tasmania, which is moving away quite rapidly to the East. A complex trough of low pressure moving through the interior is expected to bud off a small surface low this week, somewhere off Southern NSW or the Gippsland coast. Most of the infeed into the system and resultant flow off the southern flank of the low is now focussed on Southern NSW and Tasmania (compared to Mondays notes). A small trough of low pressure off the sub-tropical coast (SEQLD likely) will see a brief flush of E/NE swell. One bright spot in a very dull forecast.

In the short run we’ll see an onshore NE  flow continue  as an arm of the trough linked to the small low drifts up towards the MNC possibly bringing a S-SE change to the Coffs Coast before stalling out. Elsewhere mod N-NE winds are on offer and with small weak surf in the 1-2ft range, not much too get excited about. Some mid period S swell will show on the MNC mid a’noon, late on the Far North Coast with 2-3ft sets at S facing beaches.

Wed sees a trough deepen off the SEQLD coast and move southwards, with an E/NE infeed into the trough bringing an increase in swell from that direction, likely up into the 3ft range. Winds from the N-NE may shift SW-W north of Moreton Island during the morning before an a’noon seabreeze if you have flexibility in the schedule. Otherwise, N’ly winds across the region.

Thursday looks tricky. The morning should see NW winds as the small trough moves south, with leftover E/NE swell to 2ft, easing during the day. Winds then tend N’ly again so get on the early.

Similar winds Friday. Those weak winds around a stalled troughy area  bring a light offshore flow for the morning with freshening a’noon NE seabreezes. A weak start to Summer with small NE swell to 1-2ft. Just worth a grovel if you can find a willing bank.

This weekend (Dec 2-3)

Not much swell energy expected for the weekend. Surf-wise we’re looking at a small NE windswell signal Sat with a freshening N’ly flow as a trough and front approach. 1-2ft NE windswell with N’ly winds is expected. We should at least see  a window o cleaner conditions early under NW-W/NW winds.

Even smaller surf for Sun with weak NE “swell” around 1-1.5ft. At least winds should improve as the trough nudges northwards and brings light offshore winds before a light E’ly breeze kicks up as it stalls out somewhere around the border. 

Next week (Dec 4 onwards)

A small amount of  surf potential for early next week as a low pressure system drifts east of Tasmania. Models are divergent with EC suggesting a stronger system stalling near the South Island and supplying S, then S/SE pulses next week, up in the 2-3ft range.

GFS had a weaker system which drifts south out of the swell window and only supplies modest S swell in the 1-2ft range later Mon into Tues.

We’ll see how models look when we come back Wed but the outlook suggests more small, weak surf next week with light winds tending N’ly.

No change to this weak outlook, with a weak-ish tradewind band in the South Pacific likely to hold a tiny, background signal into the medium term.

Check back Wed for the latest update.