South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed 13th Sep)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Long period  S swell, with pulses peaking WedPM and Thurs, tricky with SE winds but clean in the morning
• Mix of S swell and potential developing tradewind swell likely Fri 
• Fun sized E-E/NE swell over the weekend with light winds tending N-NE in the a’noon
• Chunkier E-E/NE swell Mon, peaking Tues with N’ly winds (lighter NW in the morning)
• More S swell and small tradewind swell into the medium term

Recap

Combination swells from the E/NE and S have maintained surf in the 2-3ft range since Mon’s notes, with some bigger sets on the NENSW S exposed breaks. Stronger S swell is expected too fill in late this a’noon and overnight. Conditions have been primo across NENSW and the Southern Gold Coast, with morning land breezes and light/mod SE winds. More northerly areas have suffered from a stronger SE flow. All in all though, there have been some good quality waves around if you could find a break liking the combination swells.

Some quality A frames on offer over the last couple of days under combination swells

This week (Sep 13-15)

Not much has changed since Mon. We still have a large (1032hPa) high slow moving over NSW directing light N’lies over temperate NSW and SE winds in the sub-tropics, extending out to a tradewind fetch adjacent to New Caledonia. A slow moving frontal progression is gradually working it’s way clear of New Zealand longitudes while sending pulses of S’ly groundswell our way. High pressure does clear the coast this week with an increasing N’ly flow before a weak, troughy pattern brings a light/variable flow for the weekend. A weak N’ly pattern next week will have a few options as swell direction turns to the E/NE. Lets look at the details.

In the short run we’ll long period groundswell continue to pulse with a  peak in size to 3-5ft at NENSW S facing beaches, smaller elsewhere. Persistent E’ly swell looks to slowly ease into the 2 occ 3ft range. No dramas with winds. Light W-SW early tending light/mod SE’ly through the day.

Similar winds Fri as a trough approaches , possibly tending more E/SE-E on the North Coast in the a’noon. S swell should come down in size with sets to 3ft at NENSW S exposed breaks, easing during the day and some E’ly swell to 2-3ft continuing from tradewinds near New Caledonia, which freshen as a broad, angular tropical depression drifts down from the north. Fri should cap off a fun week of waves. 

This weekend (Sep 16-17)

Light winds tending to a’noon seabreezes look good for the weekend, although the a’noon N-NE flow looks stronger south of Byron. 

We’ll have some waves to work with. Primarily E’ly tradewind swell from the fetch extending from New Caledonia back into the Coral Sea. That fetch ramps up over the weekend as tropical depression squeezes pressure gradients but in it’s earlier stages we’ll see 2-3ft of E swell Sat, bumping up a notch into Sun. 

There’ll be some small amounts of S’ly quadrant swell on tap in NENSW Sat, from a last compact low passing through the Tasman overnight into tomorrow (see below) and leftover swell trains from the stalled frontal progression near New Zealand but they’ll be an inconsistent 2 occ. 3ft at S facing beaches. Barely noticeable in SEQLD. 

Next week (Sep 18 onwards)

Winds from the N’ly quarter next week, although we should see morning NW land breezes at least until mid week. Typical Spring.

E-E/NE swell continues into next week. There is a bit of model divergence with GFS suggesting the bottom end of the tropical depression drifts down into the wide open E’ly swell window, with swell elevating from typical tradewind levels into the next size range up. EC maintains the stronger fetch of the depression on the leeward side of the Island chains and thus maintains typical tradewind style surf.

Either way E/NE swell is expected to build, possibly from late Mon, but by Tues we should be back up into the 4ft range as the souped up tradewind swell builds, possibly into the 3-5ft range under the GFS scenario. We’ll finesse size on Fri.

Size looks to ease back from Wed with N’ly winds and easing further into Thurs, albeit remaining surfable.

We’ll likely see winds shift Thurs as a front pushes into the Tasman with NW tending S-SE winds and clean leftovers from the E/NE to 2ft.

The front looks to provide some workable S swell, likely showing Fri in the 2-3ft range at S facing beaches and hanging around for Sat at workable levels.  

Further S swells look likely to continue in the medium term, although no major low pressure development in the Tasman looks likely so you can keep the step-ups and guns in the rack. Tradewinds continue to look unseasonably active, although better aimed at the sub-tropics it’s likely we’ll see some small surf  from this source in the medium term. 

All in all, not such a bad outlook for the opening month of Spring.

Check back Fri for the latest.