South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon 11th Sep)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• S swell Mon with S-SE winds
• E’ly swell chugs away at surfable levels Mon/Tues, favouring SEQLD
• Long period  S swell, with pulses likely TuesPM, WedPM and Thurs, tricky with SE winds
• Mix of S swell and potential developing tradewind swell likely Fri 
• E-E/NE swell becoming sizey Sun and holding into early next week with light winds likely

Recap

E/NE swell came in nicely over f/cast expectations for Sat with some 3ft sets widely distributed and clean conditions early before S’ly winds kicked in. It dropped down a notch for Sun, with some small S swell filling in across NENSW and supplying 2-3ft surf at S exposed breaks. Today has seen another mixed bag with increased S swell to 3-4ft across NENSW and E/NE swell holding steady in the 2 occ. 3ft range in SEQLD. Morning offshore winds have now tended mod/fresh S/SE under a building high pressure ridge.   S swell pulses will be the story of the week but there will be some E’ly quadrant swell in the mix as well. Read on for details. 

Small E-E/NE swell nice and clean in the corners

This week (Sep 11-15)

A big dominant high (1032hPa) is sitting over SE Australia, with a series of powerful fronts passing well to the south and the progression slowed in New Zealand longitudes. The high is slow moving, setting up a dichotomy with N’ly winds across temperate NSW and a more SE flow in a ridge along the sub-tropics. Across all regions we’ll see pulses of S’ly groundswell this week from the deep fetches located in the Far Southern Tasman. 

In the short run we’ll see the SE wind surge established with a mod/fresh flow in SEQLD, becoming lighter the further south you go from there border. Lighter winds early will tend SW across NENSW and the Southern Gold Coast. A similar mixed bag is on offer tomorrow, with S swell dominant in NENSW and E swell’s in SEQLD, with a blend of the two across the Ballina-Tweed region. 2-3ft from the E in SEQLD and 2-3ft from the S in NENSW. We should see some longer period S swell trains show in the a’noon but with mod SE winds they’ll be hard to utilise.

Similar winds for Wed. SW-S early, tending mod SE through the day. E swell looks to ease a notch but still chugs away in the 2ft range. Long period  S swell  should see some 3ft sets in NENSW at S facing beaches with another stronger pulse working it’s way up the coast, again probably with bad timing due to SE winds.

Winds look good for the final days of the week, with the slowed progression still sending mid/long period S swell trains up the Eastern Seaboard and lighter winds under weaker pressure gradients. Light morning offshores and weak SE-E breezes are on the radar for both Thurs and Fri.

Size will hold from Wed’s late or overnight peak and should be plenty of 4ft+ surf Thurs at S facing beaches in NENSW, smaller in SEQLD, a notch smaller Fri. 

By Thus this week the high sets up a strong SE trade flow through the Eastern Coral Sea, with gradients squeezed by a southwards moving broad tropical depression. Models show this depression remaining on the seaward side of Grand Terre (New Caledonia) and the bulk of the swell energy will be arriving over the weekend and early next week. By Friday we should be seeing a slow upwards trend in E’ly swell energy, likely in the 2-3ft range on the Sunshine Coast, slightly smaller elsewhere.

This weekend (Sep 16-17)

There looks to be one last S pulse in the series, arriving  Sat. Either way there should be some fun 3ft sets on offer for Sat out of the E and S with light winds. 

Stronger E-E/NE swell for Sun. Even though the broad, elongated tropical depression stays eastwards of the blocking island chains we should still see enough pressure gradient squeeze to generate some chunky E swell into the 3-5ft range Sun. Winds look light/variable on the coast, under weak gradients. Likely there will be some sort of onshore seabreeze flow so don’t expect perfection  but there should be plenty of workable options from Points to slightly raw, energetic beachies. 

Next week (Sep 18 onwards)

Swell from the E-E/NE continues into early next week, likely holding in the 3-5ft range through Mon and Tues. Continuing light winds  although a freshening NE flow is possible by Wed, with easing swells. 

There’s a lot of powerful storm activity under the continent and although most of the fetch is zonal (W-E) and better aimed at New Zealand and South Pacific targets we may see some extra long period S swell wrap mid next week. We’ll see how that looks on Wed. 

In the mean-time a mixed bag and SE winds to work with.

Check ya Wed.