South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed 6th Sep)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Freshening N’lies Thurs/Fri with some workable NE windswell, favouring MNC for size
• Small amounts of NE windswell Thurs/Fri, favouring MNC
• Workable E/NE tradewind swell over the weekend- favouring SEQLD for size
• S’ly winds for the weekend- strongest in NENSW with a late kick in S swell Sat, small S swell Sun
• More S swell, potentially sizey next week
• Mix of S swell and potential developing tradewind swell likely later next week 

Recap

Not much to report surf-wise with 2ft or less surf of surf yesterday and fresh N’lies making a mess out of all but a few backbeaches. A S’ly change has bought cleaner conditions to most of the region today (stalling around Moreton Island with NE winds on the Sunshine Coast) but surf has remained in the 1-2ft range. 

S'ly change stalled around Cape Moreton but still disrupted the N'ly flow on the Sunshine Coast

This week (Sep 6-8)

A front and small low are now racing across the Tasman with a high over NSW moving into the Tasman and directing a freshening N’ly flow across most of the Eastern Seaboard and a developing tradewind flow. So far, so spring. A complex low, front and trough then approaches from the W, bringing a flush of W’ly winds and a S swell. There’s some changes to this outlook compared to Mon, so read on for details. 

In the short run we’ll see a freshening N’ly flow through tomorrow, likely in the strong wind range by the a’noon. Morning winds should be N/NW and clean on the backbeache with some small E/SE swell offering up fun sized 2ft sets. Through the a’noon we should see developing NE windswell, likely reaching 2ft by close of play on the MNC.

The proximate fetch of N-NE winds to the NSW coast and extending up to QLD should see NE windswell build through Fri AM in the 2ft range, bigger 3ft on the MNC. No change to the winds which will be fresh N’lies.

This weekend (Sep 9-10)

Much softer outlook for the weekend as the expected low/frontal system doesn’t penetrate as far north along the NSW coast. Saturday now looks small for most of the day with mod/fresh SW-S winds (lighter in SEQLD) as the front passes through Bass Strait, tending to lighter SE winds in the a’noon. Our main swell source Sat will be E/NE tradewind style surf from the winds in the Southern Coral Sea, supplying peaky 2ft surf with the occ. 3ft set on the Sunshine Coast. 

Sunday looks a better bet for S swell with light morning offshore winds in NENSW-Southern Gold Coast tending to mod SE winds during the day.  Small S swell from the fetch passing to the S and SE of Tasmania up the size and juice with surf in the 2-3ft range likely in NENSW, smaller north of the border and blended with some E/NE swell to 2-3ft from a broad fetch through the Southern Coral and Northern Tasman seas. That could see potentially fun A-frames at select locations.

Next week (Sep 11 onwards)

Still looking at plenty of reinforcing S swell next week, although with a strong high moving NE of Tasmania we’ll likely have a few days of S’ly winds to get through.

Plenty of mid period S swell to 2-3ft on Mon, with E/NE swell to 2-3ft in the mix. Get in early though with a light SW-S flow expected to tend to freshening S-SE winds as the high pressure ridge builds along the coast.

A secondary front with strong gales (see below) adds another strong pulse of S swell now expected late Tues or overnight/early Wed, in the 4-5ft range in NENSW, smaller 3ft at S facing beaches in SEQLD. Winds should ease a notch from Mon, but we’re still looking at a S’ly flow, likely tending SE in the a’noon. 

A tertiary front then follows into the Tasman, on the same track working on an already active sea state. It’s likely models are underestimating swells from this source but we’re looking at strong S swells, tending S/SE through Wed and Thurs, with a very slow easing trend into late next week and the weekend as the fetch lingers in New Zealand longitudes. 

Winds may tend more E-NE south of Ballina mid week, remaining more SE-E into SEQLD as high pressure drifts into the Tasman and remains slow moving.  That’s also likely to see more E’ly tradewind swell develop later next week as SE-E/SE winds occupy the Central/Southern Coral Sea.

We’ll update size and timing on Fri but it’s certainly looking like an active period of strong S swells and workable tradewind swells with an improving wind outlook through the week.

Seeya Fri for the latest update.