South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 25th Aug)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Light S-SE winds this weekend with small swells
• Small, long range E/SE swell shows Sat PM and extends into Sun/Mon/Tues, supplies a few inconsistent sets
• A round of small, fun E-E/NE tradewind swell now on tap next week, building late Sun into Mon and persisting most of next week
• Small S swell expected late next week Fri-Sat
• Potential for E’ly swell sources next week from South Pacific- check back Mon for updates

Recap

Not much action to recap since Wed. A few small S swell trains in NENSW topped out around 2-3ft but quality was poor under S’ly winds. SEQLD stayed below 2ft and remains so today. NENSW S exposed breaks are seeing some 2ft+ sets today but it’s generally below average and weak across the region with mod S-SE winds now established. 

Not much energy away from the swell magnets

This weekend (Aug 26-27)

No great change to the weekend f/cast. A pair of troughs remain inland as a large high approaches with weak troughy remnant off the Mid North Coast. That slightly stalled pattern should see a light S-SE flow both days (stronger on the Sunshine Coast) with a morning SW flow Sat tending to SE-NE breezes in the a’noon.

Sun should see similar breezes. Expect a bit of variability in winds but they should stay light enough to work around without too much drama.

Not much size for Sat, especially through the morning where we are likely to see small S swells to 2ft in NENSW, and a small mixed bag of S and SE swells in the 1-2ft range at SEQLD swell magnets. Keep an eye out for some very inconsistent 2ft sets from the E/SE from a fetch in Tahitian longitudes early this week.

That swell will be in the water for Sun as well supplying very inconsistent and tidally affected 2ft sets (possibly a few bigger ones). Long period S swell glancing the coast will see some small lines in NENSW to 2-3ft at S swell magnets. There should be a few fun options around with this small blend in the water as long as you are patient as there’ll be plenty of waiting around for sets. We should see some E/NE tradewind swell start to show on the Sunshine Coast Sun a’noon with size around 2ft. 

Next week (Aug 28 onwards)

We’ve still got the basic building blocks in place that we mentioned on Wed with the proviso that everything looks a little weaker and disjointed. High pressure moves NE of Tasmania and the troughs remain inland, although we may see a weaker trough area move off the North Coast of NSW early in the week. SE-E/SE tradewinds are established in the Central Coral Sea and will supply small tradewind swell for the first half of the week at least.

We should see light winds continue into Mon, with morning SW winds and a’noon SE-E breezes. S swell from the last front to transit the lower Tasman holds surf in the 2-3ft range at S facing beaches in NENSW with a mix of E/NE tradewind swell and long range E swell seeing surf in the 2ft range in SEQLD, a notch bigger on the Sunshine Coast with 2-3ft surf. 

Similar conditions for Tues and into Wed, at this stage. Light morning offshore winds tending to light a’noon breezes both days with a tendency for winds to start shifting more E’ly, especially south of the border. A troughy pattern looks to sit over the region so variable winds are expected.  Small amounts of long period S swell Tues to 2-3ft at S facing beaches in NENSW, easing into Wed. E/NE tradewind swell will be the main swell source in SEQLD and it should hold some fun, if uninspiring 2 to occ 3ft surf.

A wind change is likely Thurs as a front arrives and interacts with the lingering trough line, with winds tending NW-W before a late S’ly change. 

The S’ly change is associated with a trough of low pressure forming in the Tasman, which now looks much weaker than Wednesdays model runs. Under current modelling we’re looking at developing S swell later Fri in the 3ft range, easing back over the first weekend in September. We’ll see how that looks come Mon and hope for an upgrade. 

Activity in the South Pacific around a trough between the Solomon Islands and Fiji may drift into the Eastern swell window late next week, potentially forming a useful E’ly fetch north-east of the North Island on the weekend. Models have been wishy-washy over this development so we’ll flag it for now and see how it looks come Mon. E’ly tradewind swell is likely to persist, at least at low levels later next week, hopefully with an upgrade if the fetch gets concentrated around any depressive feature drifting down from the South Pacific.

Seeya Mon and have a great weekend!