South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed 17th May)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Front and trough see S swell develop Wed 
• S swell holds into Thurs with a reinforcing pulse of SSE swell Fri under light winds
• Fun SSE swell extends into Sat with light winds
• Surf easing Sun
• Small S swell pulses next week favouring NENSW, mostly tiny in SEQLD

Recap

A mix of E’ly tradewind swell and a rapid spike in E swell from an infeed into a coastal low which developed off the border yesterday saw surf to 2-3ft build to 4ft through the a’noon, most notably on the Gold Coast. Conditions were variable under wind which shifted from E/NE-E/SE to SW as the low formed and moved offshore. Some epic waves were on tap for those in the right place at the right time. Today has seen stiff S’lies develop as the low deepens and moves offshore with a building S swell to 4-5ft in NENSW, smaller 2-3ft in SQLD where leftover E swell was predominant through the morning. 

Doesn't get much better than this short range E swell on low tide with offshore winds- hence the crowds

This week (May 17-19)

A small low formed off a coastal trough close to the QLD/NSW border yesterday and is now drifting close to Lord Howe Island, continuing to move SE-E/SE towards New Zealand. A tight pressure gradient between the low and a dual-centred high moving through the Bight is creating low end gales and strong winds on the SW flank of the low and generating S’ly swells up the Eastern seaboard, favouring NSW for most size. The low lingers in the Tasman this week with a nice tail of SSE-SE swell expected once the initial spike in size settles down.

In the short run and the position of the  low and approaching high is expected to maintain a mod SSW flow across the region (W/SW-SW in NENSW and the Southern Gold Coast), tending mod/fresh S’ly during the day. Enough to blow out most S exposed spots quickly with plenty of bump even early at spots with a morning land breeze. S’ly swell will be down a notch from today with size to 3-5ft early in NENSW, easing to 3-4ft during the day, smaller 2-3ft in SQLD at S facing beaches.

Winds should improve Fri as pressure gradient ease and a trough approaches. Morning offshore winds should extend well into the late morning before tending light/variable in he a’noon as a trough/front pushes through. Swells should tend more SE through Fri as a strong but off-axis fetch from the low near New Zealand sends swell to the East Coast. A few 4ft sets are on offer in NENSW, 2-3ft in SEQLD, with size mostly to 3ft.

This weekend (May 20 - 21)

No great change to the weekend outlook with a front pushing a W’ly flow across most of the state on Sat and fun-sized SE swells from the low in the Tasman. We should see some 3-4ft surf early, trending down to 3ft or less during the day in NENSW, smaller 2-3ft in SEQLD.

Sunday looks smaller with 2-3ft leftovers under offshore W/NW winds before winds tend SW-S as a strong front pushes NE into the Tasman. We should see plenty of fun beachies under offshore winds.

Next week (May 22 onwards)

Sunday/Mondays front now looks like a moderate one with S swell pushing up late Mon into the 2-3ft range under SW winds tending S’ly through the day. Expect surf to become tiny in SEQLD. EC does still suggest a more favourable alignment of the fetch than GFS so there is scope for an upgrade in size. We’ll fine tune that on Fri.

S swell builds further into Tues with longer period swell trains from a deeper fetch of gales builds into more mid period swell, which should see some bigger 3-4ft sets across S facing beaches in NENSW late in the day, remaining small in SEQLD with 2ft sets at S swell magnet. Winds tend S’ly as a high pressure ridge builds in along the coast. 

More fronts next week with current modelling suggesting a mid week pulse up into the 4ft range at S facing beaches under offshore winds. Remaining small in SEQLD. Lets see how the strength of these fronts is shaping up on Fri before we set anything in stone as far as size and timing is concerned.

Looks like an easing trend later next week, possibly extending into next weekend . Following that a stronger frontal system looks poised to enter the Tasman, with potential for stronger S swell into the new week of 29/5. That’s a long way out, so let’s see how it’s shaping up on Fri.

Seeya then.