South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 24th Feb)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Small mix of swells this weekend with clean mornings across NENSW/Southern Gold Coast and a’noon sea breezes
• Small SE swell Sun PM, extends into Mon with light morning winds
• Small clean surf Mon-Wed with light morning winds and a’noon NE sea breezes, stronger on the MNC
• Tropical depression or TC likely to drift south through swell window from Wed with E swell building slowly from Thurs/Fri
• Stay tuned for updates on size and timing

Recap

Not much change in surf or wind since Wed. Modest E/SE-E swell has chugged along in the 2-3ft range with a slight kick yesterday a’noon, holding into this morning in NENSW, a half notch smaller in SEQLD. Winds have been mod/fresh S-SE, with plenty of inclement weather and some lighter winds in and around rain squalls. Winds are now beginning to ease off a notch with a further easing over the weekend. 

Small peelers on the Points have again been the best of it

This weekend (Feb 25 - 26)

No great changes to the weekend f/cast. High pressure is now moving SE towards the tip of the South Island, setting up a N’ly flow across temperate NSW, more SE-E in the sub-tropics and easing over the weekend. We should see an early morning variable/W flow through tomorrow morning with clean conditions before the SE’ly kicks up (more E- E/NE from Yamba south)  and reaches mod speeds through the a’noon. Surf-wise a few clean-ish 2-3 footers are on the menu- maybe a few bigger sets. Nothing to get too excited about but there will be workable beachies on hand and small peelers on the Points at low tide. 

Winds look a little more feisty on Sun as an approaching trough tightens the pressure gradient. Lighter W-NW winds offer clean morning conditions before kicking up to mod strength from the NE (lighter in SEQLD, stronger from Yamba south). Not much size early with a continuation of mixed E quadrant swells to 2ft but we will see an increase in SE swell to 2-3ft from a Cook Strait fetch. 

All in all there should be a few small, fun waves around over the weekend.

Next week (Feb 27 onwards)

A S’ly change will likely not affect our region a trough stalls out on the lower Mid North Coast (may just trickle into Port Macquarie). That stalling is likely to see light morning W flow across the region. Winds are expected to tend light E-NE in the a’noon as the trough dissipates. Leftover E/SE swell from Sun will supply some small 2ft+ surf- 2-3ft at NENSW S swell magnets, along with a small, residual tradewind swell to 2ft.

That size continues into Tues with more light land and sea breezes.

Weak high pressure and an advancing trough fires up a proximate N’ly fetch along the NSW temperate coast Wed which is expected to whip up some local NE windswell around the bottom end of the f/cast region. Under current modelling we can peg size in the 2ft range from Coffs South. Further north, small E’ly swells hold surf in the 2ft range.

OK, back to the tropics. As Craig outlined in his article we have a very active phase with strong vorticity expected through the Coral Sea into the South Pacific as a W-NW monsoon flow, NE cross-equatorial flow and SE wind combine next week. Models are now firming on a large tropical depression (possibly a TC) drifting southwards into the slot between New Caledonia and the North Island from mid next week. A broad, slow moving area of E’ly low end gales is likely on the southern flank of this system, initially favouring the sub-tropics, but radiating down to temperate NSW through next weekend.

We’ll finesse size and timing next week as real-time data comes in but at the moment we’ll start to pencil in surf starting to build most likely Thurs, into the 2-3ft range.  We should see a further increase in size Fri into the weekend, likely up into the 4ft range through Sat, bigger 3-5ft Sun, although we’ll finesse these sizes as model guidance comes in. 

Don’t get too excited if you are into big surf. The system is expected to track SE onto the Pacific side of the North Island, which will keep a lid on wave heights compared to a system tracking inside the North Island down the Tasman Sea. 

Should still see some very fun, good quality E swell though.

Later next week, GFS suggests a strong cold front and low passing through the lower Tasman, which would add S swell to the mix. EC wants nothing to do with it, so let’s see how models behave over the weekend. 

Check back Mon and we’ll have a fresh look at it.

In the mean-time, have a great weekend!