South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 30th Dec)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Sizey mix of E swells Sat/Sun with pumping Point surf and light/mod SSE-SE winds
• Strong pulse of E/SE swell Mon, holding Tues with light winds- size favouring Points
• Last pulse of E/SE swell later Tues, holding Wed with light winds, easing through Thurs
• Likely building S swell later Fri into next weekend
• Likely active surf pattern to continue into Jan  with active Monsoon Trough, still watching out for cyclogenesis later next week, stay tuned for updates

Recap

Lots of size on offer as chunky E/NE swell continues to pulse. Size has been mostly in the 3-5ft range with some slow periods and bigger, embedded pulses, most notably Thurs a'noon which saw some 6ft sets. SE winntsds have confined cleanest conditions to protected Points with pockets of lighter winds opening up opportunities for glassy/lumpy surf at less protected Points. Plenty more of the same expected over the New Years weekend.

A bit small but the odd one at Kirra

This weekend (Dec 31-Jan1)

No change to the weekend f/cast. E/NE swell across our region continues as the main body of the fetch remains aimed at sub-tropical targets. The high in the Tasman is maintaining a moderate onshore SE flow which is favouring the protected Points.

Expect surf to bump up a notch tomorrow from the E/NE into the 4-5ft+ range, with a new pulse of E/SE swell to 3-4ft in the mix. No change to winds- mod SE favouring the Points. There may be some pockets of lighter winds around rain squalls and inshore early but don’t expect anything like groomed conditions.

New Years Day provides more of the same. Plenty of E swell with E/SE swell easing in the mix. Another day of 4-5ft Point surf is on offer, with  mod winds from the SE.

Next week (Jan2 onwards)

We should see a relaxation of the high pressure ridge by Mon, with a chance of morning SW breezes before light SE winds kick in. 

Plenty of strong E swell continues, with a slightly more ESE angle, reducing the size into more protected Points. Expect 4-5ft surf across more exposed Point, grading smaller into more sheltered, Inner Points.

A strong pulse of E swell fills in later Mon, with size in the 4-6ft range, extending into Tues. Tuesday has good odds for a morning landbreeze as pressure gradients slacken although size will likely still be over-powering most beachbreaks.

A final pulse of E/SE swell as the low retrogrades back into the Tasman Sun/Mon is expected Tues/Wed with size favouring NENSW. Expect some solid 6ft sets later Tues with size holding Wed morning under light winds and a’noon sea breezes. 

Size eases through Thurs, from 4-5ft to 3ft under light winds.

By later next week we’ll see a S’ly flow re-establish, likely through Fri as a trough of low pressure reforms near the South Island from the remnants of our current tropical low. That should see a windy small day Fri before an increasing S swell next weekend 7/8 Jan.

We’re also still monitoring possible cyclogenesis or another tropical low off the QLD coast later next week, although models are still shifting around a lot. So we’ll see what shapes up later next week.

Thats still a long way off so lets see how it’s shaping up when we come back in 2023. Have a great New Years and we’ll see you next year!