Dynamic weekend ahead as low drifts down from Coral Sea and hugs coast

Steve Shearer picture
Steve Shearer (freeride76)

South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 21st Oct)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

  • Another round of NE windswell, favouring the Mid North Coast from Fri, extends into the weekend
  • Dynamic weekend ahead as surface low forms off CQ Coast and hugs coast over the weekend
  • Mostly onshore winds and building E/NE swell Sat, possible late wind shift on the Sunshine Coast
  • Big swell expected Sun, with winds tending offshore on the Sunshine Coast, SE on the Gold Coast and more E’ly south of the border
  • Large swell extending into Mon with winds tending NW-N in SEQLD, offshore south of the border, before an a’noon NE breeze
  • Slowly easing E swell through Tues-Thurs with NW-N winds expected
  • Surf becoming tiny from Fri into next weekend
  • Troughy pattern continues, stay tuned for constant revisions

Recap

Generally ugly conditions with mod/fresh NE winds on offer since Wed, and these winds have freshened through today and even tilted more E/NE in places. Mostly NE windswell in the 2ft range has been on offer with some S’ly swell in the mix at NENSW S swell magnets. NE windswell is now building across the region, albeit with low quality. 

A few cleaner options around but generally pretty ugly conditions

This weekend (Oct 22-23)

Very dynamic weekend forecast ahead as a low pressure trough forms off the CQ coast today and forms a small surface low which drifts south to hug the coast over the weekend, accelerating away to the south through early next week. 

With the low expected to hug the coast or possibly even cross there’s going to be a lot of uncertainty over wind shifts and timing depending on how the low behaves over the weekend, so stay tuned in the comments below for real-time tracking.

Saturday should be relatively straight-forwards across the entire region. The trough of low pressure winds up off the CQ coast and anywhere below that will see freshening onshore winds. E/NE to NE across SEQLD, and tending NE to N on the Mid North Coast. It’ll be ugly for most of the region with a building E/NE swell - up into the 3-5ft range in SEQLD, grading smaller 3-4ft as you move south of the border towards Coffs. There may be a late switch of winds to the E-E/SE on the Sunshine Coast opening up protected options.

Sunday looks a wild day as the low approaches the Sunshine Coast (see below). First of all, expect plenty of size through Sun with strong winds and possible low end gales aimed up directly at the coast. Proximity equals size and this is likely to push up quickly into the 8ft range on the Sunshine Coast, grading smaller into more protected Points. That increase in size is likely across the Gold Coast from mid-morning and through the a’noon south of the border. 

Winds will depend on the position and speed of movement of the low. Under current modelling we’ll expect winds to shift S then then SSW through SW on the Sunshine Coast through the morning, potentially shifting more W through the a’noon. Even a late NE seabreeze can’t be ruled out.

The Gold Coast should see winds tend SE and then S’ly through the a’noon.

South of the border winds will tend more E/SE to SE from Yamba north and more E’ly south of Yamba.

Stay tuned for revisions!

Next week (Oct 24 onwards)

The low moves south Mon, interacting with a strong high moving south of Tasmania and another interior low forming in a trough line late in the weekend. This will drag the fetch quite quickly through our sub-tropical swell window, and with it a brief window of offshore winds before a N’ly flow in it’s wake.

Winds should have already shifted W/NW to NW in SEQLD, with a N to NE breeze in the a’noon. 

South of the border there’ll likely be a window of offshore winds extending through the morning in Far Northern NSW, with areas south of Byron-Ballina still possibly under the influence of an onshore flow. 

By the a’noon NE winds should kick back in through Far Northern NSW, with the Mid North Coast still potentially having a more variable flow. 

Plenty of size still expected through Mon with sets to 5-6ft in SEQLD, grading bigger 6-8ft through NENSW with the upper end of that on the Mid North Coast. A slight easing trend is expected through the day.

By Tues a trough line just inland offers up light NW-N winds through most of the region. The low will have moved well south of the region and become incorporated into a massive low complex which includes a slow moving inland system. That low complex is expected to maintain a N’ly flow across most of our sub-tropical region from Tues-Fri, with plenty of 4ft leftovers Tues easing to 3ft Wed and staying 2ft or less through Thurs/Fri. 

Into next weekend and we may see a small S swell generated by W’lies out of Bass Strait, but that source looks very flukey this far out and barely worth pencilling in at this stage.

Check back Mon and we’ll see how it’s shaping up. For now, it looks like a continuation of the unstable, troughy soup we are getting used to.

See you then and have a great weekend!

Comments

Surfalot67's picture
Surfalot67's picture
Surfalot67 Friday, 21 Oct 2022 at 7:15pm

So basically for the southern GC, a washing machine on low going up to high then back to low again. Bummer. Hope some banks survive

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Friday, 21 Oct 2022 at 7:49pm

Initial Flood watch for the Tweed, Richmond and Wilson's Rivers issued.

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather Saturday, 22 Oct 2022 at 8:39am

Yes Sunday afternoon looks intense. If that system stalls it could dump a serious amount of rain on Nth Rivers.

Rockethut's picture
Rockethut's picture
Rockethut Saturday, 22 Oct 2022 at 6:56am

Looks like a season filled with floods again. Bush fires might have to wait their turn for another year. Great surf outlook for most of next week!

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Saturday, 22 Oct 2022 at 12:15pm

264 mm at Rainbow Bch for the 24 hrs to 9am.

Lets hope those totals do not occur south of the border in the Tweed/Wilsons/Richmond catchments.

seeds's picture
seeds's picture
seeds Saturday, 22 Oct 2022 at 12:17pm

Heavy. Just looking at radar looks like low heading offshore across Sandy Cape.

greg-n.williams's picture
greg-n.williams's picture
greg-n.williams Saturday, 22 Oct 2022 at 2:35pm

264mm o/night @ Rainbow Bch! Wow that's intense rainfall crazy how widespread the rainfall is occuring. looked @ BOM f/cast for nxt. week & there are low's popping up everywhere on the continent, seems like this is the new norm (for now anyways).

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Saturday, 22 Oct 2022 at 4:33pm

BOM wind forecast for the Byron coast on Monday seems to cover all bases.

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Saturday, 22 Oct 2022 at 4:59pm

Jeezuz......a Northwest to E'ly!

udo's picture
udo's picture
udo Saturday, 22 Oct 2022 at 5:00pm

Late Arvo expression session on at Greenmount atm

boogiefever's picture
boogiefever's picture
boogiefever Sunday, 23 Oct 2022 at 7:23am

Nooooosa!!!!!! 4ft and building. Check the cam..... Sooo much room for activities!!!!!
Its quiet......scary quiet.....
Please bring 12 of ur best mates and come keep me company.....sit right next to me so we can hold hands and sing kumbayah together!!!!!!
Yewwwww!!!!!!!!

gsco's picture
gsco's picture
gsco Sunday, 23 Oct 2022 at 8:01am

Let's go...everyone's doing it..!

Sprout's picture
Sprout's picture
Sprout Sunday, 23 Oct 2022 at 9:30am

I prefer a cheese induced injury.

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Sunday, 23 Oct 2022 at 8:48am

Nice eye on the radar.

Looks like a sub-tropical hybrid low- rare to see such a well developed eye in October.
Normally need summer/autumn water temps for that.

Andrew P's picture
Andrew P's picture
Andrew P Sunday, 23 Oct 2022 at 9:46am

The eye was well defined wasn’t it. Looks like the system is headed your way Steve hopefully it’s lost most of its moisture before it hits

Sprout's picture
Sprout's picture
Sprout Sunday, 23 Oct 2022 at 9:26am

Offshore, out there!

Ardy's picture
Ardy's picture
Ardy Sunday, 23 Oct 2022 at 12:03pm

Just checked up front , some big bombs but you need a ski to get there, winds are ok, we’ll above my pay rate. Head out with boogie fever no one out :)

Sprout's picture
Sprout's picture
Sprout Sunday, 23 Oct 2022 at 12:45pm

Yeah there were some nice clean waves out the back, of which I had no chance of paddling out to.

Surfalot67's picture
Surfalot67's picture
Surfalot67 Sunday, 23 Oct 2022 at 12:24pm

That eye looks pretty static off Caloundra RN. Shit load of rain heading towards the border area in the next couple of hours.

Sprout's picture
Sprout's picture
Sprout Sunday, 23 Oct 2022 at 12:57pm

Dropping 100ks South every 12 hours or so? 8km/h, a brisk walk down the coast.

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Sunday, 23 Oct 2022 at 4:37pm

Major flood warning now issued for the Wilsons River at Lismore

burleigh's picture
burleigh's picture
burleigh Sunday, 23 Oct 2022 at 9:34pm

Oh damn. Just had a look at the radar. Doesn’t look good

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Monday, 24 Oct 2022 at 7:26am

Some impressive rainfall totals south of the border since 9am yesterday:

Alstonville: 230mm
Goonengerry: 213mm
Doon Doon: 192mm
Repentance: 177mm
Tuckombil: 157mm
Mullumbimby Creek: 145mm
Myocum: 136mm
Lismore: 127mm
Belongil Ck Bridge: 125mm
Ballina Airport: 125mm

Qld didn't see anywhere near as much rain on Sunday: highest on the Goldy was Upper Springbrook with 93mm, but coastal stations only reached 40-50mm (just 20mm at the Seaway). Most rainfall on the Sunny Coast was 52mm at Parrearra Weir, 47mm at Bundilla and 42mm at Maroochydore.

lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy Monday, 24 Oct 2022 at 7:56am

Does that even scrape into the top 5 24hr periods for 2022?

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Monday, 24 Oct 2022 at 8:03am

Nowhere near. As I posted back in late Feb this year:

thermalben wrote:

Huge rainfall totals across some parts of SE Qld since 9am yesterday.. highlights so far:

589mm at Mt Glorious (which also recorded 250mm the day before, and 134mm the two days prior.. i.e. 973mm in 4 days!)
485mm at Pomona (plus 415mm yesterday, 9mm Thurs and 361mm Wed.. i.e. 1,270mm in 4 days!.. wow!)

A few days later in Northern NSW, Dunoon picked up 775mm in 24 hours.

(FWIW, Mt Glorious ended up with a 5-day total to 1,554mm; Pomona reached 1,464mm.).

Well worth re-reading Steve's notes and the accompanying comments from that event:
https://www.swellnet.com/reports/forecaster-notes/south-east-queensland-...

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Monday, 24 Oct 2022 at 8:17am

Winds are behaving roughly as predicted.

Early SW- W'ly flow across Gold Coast, NW on Sunny Coast.
Now tending NW on Goldy as low tracks south.

Still WSW-SW on Byron Coast, but will tend NW quite soon based on Coolangatta observations.

Should be a longer window of offshore winds on Yamba-Coffs coast.

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather Monday, 24 Oct 2022 at 11:34am

Clean as but way too big here on the open beaches this morning. Will be interesting to see how fcked up the sand is once the swell settles over the coming days. Fck all beach left on the high tide this morning.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Monday, 24 Oct 2022 at 12:04pm

Meanwhile, around the corner...