Solid surf slowly eases through the week with some supporting energy favouring South of the Border

Steve Shearer picture
Steve Shearer (freeride76)

South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon 25th July)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

  • Plenty of leftover size from the E/SE Tues with NW, tending W’ly winds 
  • Nice leftovers Wed with winds tending SSW in he a’noon and a late kick in S swell across the MNC and North Coast
  • Mix of S and SE swell Thurs with offshore winds
  • Fun sized SE swell Fri, easing through the a’noon and further through Sat, becoming small Sun
  • A quieter period ahead to start August

Recap

Tons of large surf over the weekend as a Coral Sea low tracked near Fraser Island and then out to sea. Saturday saw XL surf with only Kirra and Noosa surfable initially before things settled in the a’noon and the Superbank came on song. Size was in the 8ft+ range, grading into 6-8ft surf at Kirra, smaller in the a’noon and 4-5ft surf at Noosa, dropping quickly in the a’noon.

Size was smaller Sun, still 6-8ft in NENSW, with few places surfable, grading smaller 4-6ft on the Superbank.

Today has seen a renewal in strong ESE swell with some 6ft sets in NENSW, 4-5ft in SEQLD and light winds providing great surface conditions especially on semi-sheltered Points. More surf is expected this week before things settle down into the weekend. 

Wash-throughs at Kirra Sat morning

Superbank coming on-line as swell settled and tide pushed in

Still some energy in a deceptively perfect line-up Mon morning

This week (July 25-July 29)

Lovely looking map this morning with the weekend’s Coral Sea low low lingering near the North Island, having intensified overnight. Current ASCAT (satellite windspeed) pass shows storm force winds embedded in a larger fetch of SE-ESE gales to severe gales aimed back (mostly) at NSW. That will maintain quite elevated wave heights from a favourable direction for NENSW through most of the week, smaller in SEQLD, with supporting pulses arriving from the S during the week as a more typical winter pattern of cold fronts pushes into the Tasman,bringing a mostly offshore flow through the region. In short, we’ll be looking back to the South this week.

In the short run and Tuesday is still looking pretty good, with an early W/NW to NW flow tending W’ly as a front pushes across the state. Expect plenty of great ESE-E swell in the 4-5ft range in NENSW, smaller 3-4ft in SEQLD, just slowly easing through the a’noon. 

Wednesday sees a mix of easing E-ESE swell with early sets to 3-4ft in NENSW, smaller 2-3ft in SEQLD, dropping back through the day. A cold front forms a small surface low off the Central/Mid North Coast, energising a SW-S fetch along the coast (see below). An a’noon kick in new S swell is on the cards for the Mid North Coast, with sets to 3-4ft at S facing beaches through the a’noon, arriving mid-late a’noon north of Yamba. Winds will tend W/SW Wed, with a tilt to the SW-S later as the front sweeps through.

Offshore winds continue through Thurs with S’ly quadrant swells continuing. The directional S swell will peak in the 3-5ft range at S facing beaches in NENSW, smaller 2-3ft in SEQLD at select S swell magnets.  A pulse of SSE swell will be filling in as the remnants of the Coral Sea low re-organise under the South Island , aiming up a fetch back towards the East Coast. This swell pulse will be a little weaker, coming in around 3ft and expect some inconsistency due to the travel distance. With all day offshore winds it still looks like a good/great day.

By the end of the working week swells will be on the wane. Another cold front brings a SW flow through the day, potentially swinging more SSW-S through the day. SSE swell will slowly back down through the a’noon, with a few 3ft sets early becoming more inconsistent through the a’noon. We’ll keep tabs on the possibility of a late spike in new S swell. Wave models aren’t suggesting anything but the EC prognosis is for a stronger frontal passage Fri so stay tuned for updates.

This weekend (July 30-31)

Wave models aren’t suggesting much action at all this weekend. A classic August W to NW flow with surf easing right back. Size in the 2-3ft range Sat with leftover SSE swell and 1-2ft range Sun as the last of the S and SE swells from our current low ebb away.

We’ll mention that as the conventional wisdom. The European Model (ECMWF) has a much more bullish outlook with a strong front, creating a deep S to SSW fetch through the lower Tasman. That would suggest a much more active weekend with S swell building possibly as early as Fri PM and size in the 4-5ft range Sat, holding Sun morning before easing. Let’s flag that for now as a possibility and revisit on Wed. EC has been the more adventurous of the models during this La Niña and often needs to be dialled back. Check back Wed and we’ll see whether we are pulling out the snorkels or the step-ups.

Next week (Aug 1 onwards)

Looks like a relatively quiet start to the last month of Winter. Whatever frontal systems do pass through will clear the Tasman, with a more northward moving high creating a weak blocking pattern in the Tasman, suggesting a spell of more settled weather and small surf.

We’ll keep tabs on some fronts rapidly transiting through the far Lower Tasman but at this stage they look like marginal swell sources with very zonal fetches.

With so much surf on the short term to deal with we can afford to not stress over a quiet week next week.

Check back Wed for the latest update.

Comments

Plasticspastic's picture
Plasticspastic's picture
Plasticspastic Monday, 25 Jul 2022 at 4:41pm

After the madness of the weekend, had a fantastic surf this morning. sand has moved around a bit, but some places were spared..

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Monday, 25 Jul 2022 at 6:45pm

What a run of swell so far. Body is cooked from the last three days.

One spot later this morning saw three boards destroyed in an hour thanks to leggy breaks and them ending up on the rocks. Check your gear before heading out into the bigger stuff.

adsi's picture
adsi's picture
adsi Tuesday, 26 Jul 2022 at 8:29am

Shame about the NNW this morning putting ribs up the face of the points. Was looking nice otherwise, sand on beaches looks crap.
Hopefully this arvo is still offshore

Sprout's picture
Sprout's picture
Sprout Tuesday, 26 Jul 2022 at 8:44am

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Look at me now! The natural wonder Mother Nature has shaped in just six months.
https://www.sunshinecoastnews.com.au/2022/07/26/bribie-island-natural-wo...


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Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Tuesday, 26 Jul 2022 at 9:08am

Crazy how's the old tower structure!

Sprout's picture
Sprout's picture
Sprout Tuesday, 26 Jul 2022 at 9:49am

Yeah that's nuts. I've said before it used to be on the dune with TOS style beachies out from it, now it's almost an obstacle in the middle of a right point!

Peter Reynolds's picture
Peter Reynolds's picture
Peter Reynolds Tuesday, 26 Jul 2022 at 1:14pm

The left is actually better! It wraps all the way inside into the passage, especially on the most recent big swell, I was out there surfing it on the wing and foil saturday! The northern point of the new mouth also has a good sand build up and a nice A frame breaks at the top of it.

tip-top1's picture
tip-top1's picture
tip-top1 Tuesday, 26 Jul 2022 at 5:40pm

sprout was !!!!

Plasticspastic's picture
Plasticspastic's picture
Plasticspastic Tuesday, 26 Jul 2022 at 10:37am

Anyone surfed it?

Peter Reynolds's picture
Peter Reynolds's picture
Peter Reynolds Tuesday, 26 Jul 2022 at 1:25pm

Yep, there is a looong left that wraps along the northern sand bar all the way inside the passage on big swells and a nice A frame at the top of the northern spit on smaller swells, although the right looks good in photos its rarely an option, very shallow and the sand is just not in the right place at the moment.

Plasticspastic's picture
Plasticspastic's picture
Plasticspastic Tuesday, 26 Jul 2022 at 1:27pm

thanks - wonder if this is the final setup??

Peter Reynolds's picture
Peter Reynolds's picture
Peter Reynolds Tuesday, 26 Jul 2022 at 1:32pm

Nah no way, I live pretty much directly opposite it and it is changing on a daily basis, just this weekend approx. 20-25 metres of sand was eroded from the northern bank, glad they are letting it do its thing though instead of trying to mess with it.

Sprout's picture
Sprout's picture
Sprout Tuesday, 26 Jul 2022 at 1:41pm

.

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather Tuesday, 26 Jul 2022 at 2:47pm

Feel free to advertise it even more!!!! FFS!!

adsi's picture
adsi's picture
adsi Tuesday, 26 Jul 2022 at 3:33pm

To be fair, I doubt that any swell will really be getting in there anytime soon, unless we get another out of season swell from the east quadrant.

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Tuesday, 26 Jul 2022 at 3:40pm

Quite possible judging from EC long range.

adsi's picture
adsi's picture
adsi Tuesday, 26 Jul 2022 at 6:07pm

That's what I wanna hear!

Sprout's picture
Sprout's picture
Sprout Tuesday, 26 Jul 2022 at 3:41pm

It's 99/100 not worth the effort compared to other spots nearby which are always bigger as it's picky with angle and takes MUCH more energy to get in across the shallow nearshore and bar water flow that saps much of the swell.

Luke02's picture
Luke02's picture
Luke02 Tuesday, 26 Jul 2022 at 3:50pm

Plus you need the winds to cooperate ... definitely not going to happen over the next 6 months

Peter Reynolds's picture
Peter Reynolds's picture
Peter Reynolds Tuesday, 26 Jul 2022 at 4:02pm

I've surfed it everytime it has broken and know every single person that has surfed it with me, very small dedicated crew in that area, unless your some joker on a jetski I would know you, none of us are worried about it getting crowded, relax and come surf it with us sometime

Solitude's picture
Solitude's picture
Solitude Tuesday, 26 Jul 2022 at 4:06pm

Love your attitude Pete

Sprout's picture
Sprout's picture
Sprout Tuesday, 26 Jul 2022 at 4:11pm

Haha, you idiot. Yes everyone go there, clearly friendly locals, pumps all the time, don't look elsewhere thanks!

Plasticspastic's picture
Plasticspastic's picture
Plasticspastic Tuesday, 26 Jul 2022 at 4:53pm

I have a jetski with a mate.. and I can attest to once he is behind the controls, he turns into an idiot...

NickT's picture
NickT's picture
NickT Tuesday, 26 Jul 2022 at 5:18pm

Chill out dude, he's obviously a local and is inviting others to check it out.

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Tuesday, 26 Jul 2022 at 10:38am

Those flats look epic.

Peter Reynolds's picture
Peter Reynolds's picture
Peter Reynolds Wednesday, 27 Jul 2022 at 8:32am

Well I'll get your juices pumping even more mate! My neighbour has landed 6 metre plus bazza's since it opened! I've landed a 97cm and the jew! Don't get me started on the jew! So bring your tinnies as well boys! But I draw a line in the sand with fishing spots, they are off limits sorry, and no, none of us are worried out of towners will come and catch all our barra, the amount of snap swivels on the end of leaders I see at the boat ramp is testament to that hahahahaha

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Wednesday, 27 Jul 2022 at 1:24pm

barramundi?

Peter Reynolds's picture
Peter Reynolds's picture
Peter Reynolds Wednesday, 27 Jul 2022 at 1:57pm

Yeah mate, big ones!, and they are thiiiiiiiiick

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Wednesday, 27 Jul 2022 at 1:59pm

Mate I'm a Bribie boy, I'll be there in a flash.
but hush your mouth, please!

Peter Reynolds's picture
Peter Reynolds's picture
Peter Reynolds Wednesday, 27 Jul 2022 at 2:07pm

If you’ve never lived and fished far north Qld you have no chance of catching them anyway, correct bait, knots, leader and tide are the secrets I will keep hush about, but that’s awesome mate will I see you at the mouth?

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Wednesday, 27 Jul 2022 at 2:23pm

Far North QLD family roots.
I know how to catch 'em!

Caught my first one as a 10 year old boy at .....

Yes you will!

Peter Reynolds's picture
Peter Reynolds's picture
Peter Reynolds Wednesday, 27 Jul 2022 at 2:36pm

Hahaha ok ok I will pipe down for a fellow FNQ'er, you popped one on spear before?

Noice, look out for a big 6'5 bloke with a big beard and a big grin, you can't miss me I stick out like a sore thumb!

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Wednesday, 27 Jul 2022 at 2:47pm

All line caught.
Love throwing lures at 'em.

Peter Reynolds's picture
Peter Reynolds's picture
Peter Reynolds Wednesday, 27 Jul 2022 at 3:14pm

Then you know exactly what I mean about the snap swivels! I might even share a spot with you.....maybe

Robwilliams's picture
Robwilliams's picture
Robwilliams Tuesday, 26 Jul 2022 at 11:24am

Great update sprout

simba's picture
simba's picture
simba Tuesday, 26 Jul 2022 at 11:42am

geez the flatties will be on soon...epic set up for fishing

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Wednesday, 27 Jul 2022 at 12:30pm

Swell has been so consistent and is still not letting up. Just starting to ease now but still a great 3-4ft+ all morning.

Plasticspastic's picture
Plasticspastic's picture
Plasticspastic Wednesday, 27 Jul 2022 at 1:02pm

oh yeah farking cooking this morning.. finally some winter type weather..

davetherave's picture
davetherave's picture
davetherave Wednesday, 27 Jul 2022 at 6:22pm

Ah, thank you life. FNQ crew loving life. Spanish getting caught off jetty. So grateful for Swellnet. Looks like I am going to live in Agnes soon. Get those bloody cq swell forecasts right mate. Been in Golden Beach a lot lately and I think old mate is baiting you
Honestly, no waves, no fish, but a wise being would suss it out for themselves. Nothing ventured, nothing gained.