Small, clean days ahead before solid surf from mid week onwards

Steve Shearer picture
Steve Shearer (freeride76)

South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 1st July)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

  • Small clean weekend ahead
  • Small mixed bag Sat with some long period S swell in NENSW, mostly small E swell in SEQLD
  • Slight uptick in E swell Sun, extending into Mon/Tues 
  • Increase in SE swell Wed, holding with plenty of size Thurs/Fri
  • Rebuild likely in long period S/SE-SE swell next weekend as low remains in Tasman
  • SSE swell extends into week following, stay tuned for updates

Recap

No great surf to speak of since the last f/cast. Yesterday saw a declining signal of SSE swell, topping out around 2-3ft across the North Coast, smaller 1-2ft in SEQLD and clean early before SSE winds kicked in. Today is similar with a small signal of S to SSE swell in the 1-2ft range and clean with W’ly winds now kicking in as we enter into a dynamic coastal weather event.

Small, clean E'ly peaks in the rain to end the week

This weekend (July 2-3)

OK, here we go. We are starting to get some model agreement on a developing easterly trough low expected to form off the Sydney/Hunter coast through tomorrow. There’s still a degree of uncertainty as to the exact position of the low axis, but it’s now far enough south of our region to be reasonably confident in the regional wind conditions expected.

Let’s look at what we know. An Easterly trough low is forming in a complex trough system but this low is now expected off the Sydney Coast, sparing our region the worst of the rainfall and onshore winds. Trough areas remain off the SEQLD and Far North NSW Coast over the weekend- with a possible weak surface low pressure system forming just offshore. This should maintain a light and variable wind flow, tending offshore for most of the weekend. The Mid North Coast is more likely to see a S to SE flow develop, especially Sunday.

Surf-wise there will be some longer period S’ly groundswell in the mix which will add around 2-3ft of surf to S facing beaches at NENSW S facing beaches.

E’ly winds feeding into trough line off the SEQLD coast will see a small signal of E swell around 2ft+ through Sat. Enough for some small fun beachies and babyfood peelers on the Points.

Small E swell holds surf in the 2ft range Sun, possibly perking up a notch in the a’noon, as windspeeds increase into a small surface low forming in the trough line.

The caveat to the forecast is with the trough/low so close to the coast any increase in windspeeds above model expectations will see a rapid rise in bigger than f/cast E swell. Just keep tabs with comments and observations through Sunday, as real-time data rolls in. These trough systems are inherently unpredictable and dynamic and can change very quickly. 

Next week (July 4 onwards)

Couple of small, clean days on the menu to start next week, as Southern NSW gets hammered by the Easterly Trough low. 

Small surface low and trough hovers off the SEQLD coast, with weak, variable winds, possibly tending SW-S during the day.

The proximate E’ly winds feeding into the small low and trough should hold surf in the 2-3ft range through Mon and into Tues. These winds look a bit disjointed and scattered on wind models, so if we do see some more consolidation around a deepening low centre we’ll see a bigger signal.

For now though it looks like fun, small surf with light winds, mostly W’ly biased.

By Wednesday it looks like a classic La Niña map. Strong high just SE of Tasmania with a low in the Central Tasman directing a huge windfield through most of the Central to Northern Tasman Sea (see below). 

That will begin to drive SE winds through the region, and these winds will propagate north through the day and freshen with a consequent increase in S/SE swell building through the a’noon. This should reach 4-6ft across the North Coast, building after lunch with smaller 3-4ft surf in SEQLD.

Further into next week, and allowing for the fact the dynamism leads to low confidence this far out and it looks like the low in the Tasman moves northwards and connects with the remnants of the trough line in Coral Sea. That reinvigorates the low near the North Island, with a fetch of gales then activating off the west coast and back into the Tasman, with the low doing a slow loop de loop back south through the Tasman.

If that model scenario plays out (both GFS and EC suggest some version of it) then we will be looking at more strong swell from the SSE to SE as the low tracks down the West Coast of New Zealand (see below). 

So expect plenty of solid surf in the 6ft+ range in NENSW through Thurs/Fri, smaller 4-5ft in SEQLD with S’ly winds likely.

Strong new E/SE swell is then probable by next weekend 9/10 July and beyond.

Stay tuned to the comments over the weekend as the event unfolds and we can update using real-time Obs and check back Mon for a fresh and full update.

Have a great weekend!

Comments

Sprout's picture
Sprout's picture
Sprout Friday, 1 Jul 2022 at 4:21pm

Dynamism. Nice.

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone Friday, 1 Jul 2022 at 5:09pm

Whats up with that ghost tree in the screen shot hahah.

vbaaccess's picture
vbaaccess's picture
vbaaccess Friday, 1 Jul 2022 at 5:37pm

Rain on the webcam causing the ghosting effect.

Finnbob the terror's picture
Finnbob the terror's picture
Finnbob the terror Friday, 1 Jul 2022 at 7:52pm

Who cares bone, I'm loading the 11 seater up tomorrow and heading to warmer waters for 2 weeks, fingers crossed. No more fat cold burgers for the diet.

boogiefever's picture
boogiefever's picture
boogiefever Friday, 1 Jul 2022 at 11:22pm

Awesome....Come to noosa finnbob!!!
Its scary quiet up here..... We could do with some more southerners enjoying our natural wealth.
We love to share in noosa....our generosity and community spirit put us on the map. Our waves, our women, our 17 investment homes and our tax dodging practices are yours.... come one come all!!!!
Yewwwwww!!!!!

Finnbob the terror's picture
Finnbob the terror's picture
Finnbob the terror Saturday, 2 Jul 2022 at 5:56am

Haha, can't wait to strut my stuff with my feather filled cowboy hat on hastings st, go for a paddle with my mates on my mini mal, I mean my shovel nosed midlength, with my op shop shirt unbuttoned so all can see my ripped pale 8 pack and swollen wax rashed nipples, hug some bush turkeys then get an Ice cream.

linez's picture
linez's picture
linez Saturday, 2 Jul 2022 at 12:47am

Haha, best one yet Boogie

Fresh55's picture
Fresh55's picture
Fresh55 Saturday, 2 Jul 2022 at 7:18am

Every update there seems to be massive changes on the wind maps. No expert but I haven't seen it change this much before.

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather Saturday, 2 Jul 2022 at 7:30am

It’s called a trough literally just off the coast. Slight changes in the forecast location of the trough has massive changes on our local winds.

Fresh55's picture
Fresh55's picture
Fresh55 Sunday, 3 Jul 2022 at 7:40am

Can we have an update on the complex system ?

spidermonkey's picture
spidermonkey's picture
spidermonkey Sunday, 3 Jul 2022 at 8:30am

Here's an update for the Sunshine Coast- flat.

Fresh55's picture
Fresh55's picture
Fresh55 Sunday, 3 Jul 2022 at 9:38am

Yep sure is.

SDW's picture
SDW's picture
SDW Sunday, 3 Jul 2022 at 6:23pm

So glad I’m not up at home this weekend. Some nice ones today
south of the border.

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Sunday, 3 Jul 2022 at 6:27pm

That S swell over-achieved over the weekend.

Island Bay's picture
Island Bay's picture
Island Bay Sunday, 3 Jul 2022 at 6:44pm

Good yesterday? Was very fun this afternoon, thank you very much.

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Sunday, 3 Jul 2022 at 6:47pm

Tried text you IB, check that number.

DudeSweetDudeSweet's picture
DudeSweetDudeSweet's picture
DudeSweetDudeSweet Monday, 4 Jul 2022 at 8:10am

Reinjured my leg, fucken, really need to just park up motionless and rest it for a bit. A balling Ballito Pro in Africa is just what Doctor Loungetime ordered.

Anyone got any insight on surf forecast or likelihood of it running?

I checked magic seaweed forecast and it looks waist high for the next week to me? Surely this isn’t right for winter time Seth Efrica even on their Least Coast?

Sprout's picture
Sprout's picture
Sprout Monday, 4 Jul 2022 at 9:35am

If Salt Rock or Thompsons Bay are any proxy for Willard Beach, it doesn't look great at the moment (also surf-forecast grain of salt...)
https://www.surf-forecast.com/breaks/Salt-Rock/forecasts/latest/six_day
https://www.surf-forecast.com/breaks/Thompsons-Bay/forecasts/latest/six_day

Solitude's picture
Solitude's picture
Solitude Monday, 4 Jul 2022 at 12:19pm

What kind of wave is 'Ballito' - is it a sand over rock style right??

Island Bay's picture
Island Bay's picture
Island Bay Monday, 4 Jul 2022 at 1:38pm

Get well soon, dude.

I can't believe what a magnet this coast is. Surfed the point this morning, and there are so many empty HH-OH beach peaks with perfect conditions.

AndyM's picture
AndyM's picture
AndyM Monday, 4 Jul 2022 at 1:53pm

So clean today, beautiful stuff.