South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri Jan21)

SEQLD/NENSW Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Strong, short range E to E/SE swell  peaking Fri , with winds favouring the Points
• Residual, chunky SE to E/SE swell holding at fun, levels this weekend, with SE winds slowly easing. Favouring Points Sat, possibly opening up beachbreaks Sun AM
• Small pulse of E swell Mon, easing into Tues with light winds, offering fun beachbreaks
• Long range E/SE swell Wed/Thurs, lully and inconsistent with light winds.
• Tropics finally goes dormant next week with a quieter period ahead into next weekend
• Still watching the tropics long range as possible depression forms near New Caledonia, check Mon for latest update

Recap

The last of the long lined E/SE swell slowly ebbed away through yesterday, with a window of clean conditions early, before  strong S to SE winds became established as the result of a high pressure surge working it’s way north. That saw building short range SE swell, bigger in NENSW with size getting up into the 3-5ft range at close of play, smaller 3-4ft in SEQLD. Strong SE winds have continued for the most part across the region confining surfable options to protected Points and Bays. Size on the open side is in the 4-5ft range, grading smaller into more sheltered spots. It’s a far cry from the long lined perfection of earlier this week. 

Not so pretty on the open side

Much nicer conditions at protected Points

This weekend (Jan 22 - 23)

Large (1031 HPa) high pressure is now drifting just east of Tasmania, with a smaller reinforcing cell well below the Bight. This is maintaining the ridge of high pressure along most of the East Coast, with a slight and slow easing of pressure gradients  expected over the weekend. An active Monsoon Trough lays across the North of the Continent extending out into the Coral Sea.

Let's look at winds first. No great change for the outlook there: SE winds both days, with a chance of window of lighter SSW breezes early morning, more likely on the Southern Gold Coast. The ridge looks to slacken a notch Sunday expanding that chance of SW winds further in the f/fast region. A general easing in wind strength is expected throughout the weekend as the ridge gradually weakens. 

Surf-wise the short range SE swell will clock around slightly more to the E/SE on Saturday  Expect size in the 3-4ft range, smaller 2-3ft on the Outer Points, easing back a notch during the day. Smaller and cleaner surf at more protected locations on the Inner Points. 

Swell from those sources eases further into Sunday, back into the 3ft range. Protected locations should offer some clean babyfood for beginners and big boards, but keep expectations low. There’ll be some fun small peelers on the Points.

A small trough of retrograding low pressure has a compact fetch of strong winds associated with it as it moves SW over the weekend from sub-tropical to temperate latitudes. There’s a chance of a modest late boost in surf Sun late a’noon, back into the 3ft range but Mon is a better bet for this swell. 

Next week (Jan 24 onwards)

Summer blocking pattern to continue into next week, with a couple of small E swell sources offering up fun beachbreaks potential. 

Light winds Mon should see land and sea breeze effects kick in, with a small E swell in the 3ft range. There’s still some slight model variability on this small trough of low pressure, with EC suggesting a slightly stronger system so there is room for some upside movement in wave heights. Nothing requiring a board change though, possibly another foot added on. Check the comments over the weekend, if anything changes drastically we’ll update there.

Size holds in the 2-3ft range Tues morning with a light SE’ly flow, and the swell trending downwards during the day.

High pressure remains slow moving through next week, and weakens. That should see more a classic summer surf pattern develop with light winds, a’noon seabreezes and small, weak beachbreaks. 

A slight kick in size is expected Wed a’noon into Thurs from a distant tropical depression chugging away in the South Pacific over the weekend. This will be very inconsistent by the time it reaches the f/cast region with some 2-3ft sets expected out of the E/SE. Expect long waits for sets and not many waves in a set and choose surf spots accordingly. 

Into the medium term and surf is expected to drop right away into next weekend, with small weak surf below 2ft on offer. 

Another monsoonal surge is expected across the top of the continent into the Coral Sea and near South Pacific with some suggestions of low pressure development in the New Caledonia area by next weekend. Surf potential is currently unclear but we’ll flag this for now and check back Mon and see how it’s shaping up. Looks like some good ding fixing days ahead.

Have a great weekend!