South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri Jan14)

SEQLD/NENSW Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Plenty more E swell  Sat with light winds AM tending NE on Sat and freshening
• More E swell, rebuilding strongly from the E/SE Sun, with N'ly winds, lighter in SEQLD
• Strong E/SE swell Mon, pulsing again Tues with N'ly winds, dropping out Tues in SEQLD
• Last of the E/SE swell Wed, easing during the day with light N'ly winds (flukey in NENSW)
• More E to E/SE swell developing later next week, with wnds favouring the Points
• Still watching the tropics for potential long range E swell and another TC near Fiji, check back Mon for latest updates

Recap

A strong pulse from TC Cody filled in yesterday morning with a range of wave heights recorded across the region.  Most spots were in the 4-5ft range but a few outliers recorded stronger pulses in the 4-6ft range, with both the Sunshine Coast and Mid North Coast reporting size in that range or above . Conditions were generally good with light winds, which tended SE/ESE in the a’noon. Most of the best surf was on the Points, with quality dependent on the state of the sandbars post TC Seth. Clean lines from the E/NE to E have maintained 4-5ft sets early this morning- easing back a notch during the morning- with sweet surface conditions courtesy of light morning land breezes. Winds have now clocked around to the E and are beginning to scuff up surface conditions.

Steady drumbeat of surf on the Points continues

Strong sets in NENSW

This weekend (Jan 15 - 16)

TC Cody is the main game in town and the system has now undergone extra-tropical transition and is classified as a storm force sub-tropical low. The low (Ex TC Cody) is drifting slowly  south-southeastwards towards the North Island with an extensive swath of storm force (50knot) winds along the south-western flank. These storm forces winds are embedded in an expansive gale force wind field. The slowed movement and enlargement of the wind field as it approaches the North Island are on track to deliver more powerful long period E-E/SE swell for the region in the f/cast period. Winds are going to be a major problem over the weekend and into next week.

Saturday will see fresh N’ly winds develop, likely getting up in the 20-25 knot range. There’s a chance for lighter NW winds before that, so get your skates on for the early, but it’s likely overnight onshore winds will leave the surface conditions messed up. Surf is expected to be down a notch in the 3-4ft range with the odd bigger 5ft set as we will be between pulses. 

Fresh N’ly winds Sun will confine surf to handful of backbeaches and novelty spots unless you have an extremely high tolerance for devil winds and crossed up surf on the Points. 

Much stronger E’ly swell is en route with wave models suggesting this pulse will arrive during Sun morning. Keep tabs on local conditions from the morning onwards for much stronger sets in the 6ft range, possibly 6-8ft on the more exposed stretches of the Mid North Coast. Finding a backbeach out of the wind handling a swell of that magnitude will be the main challenge.

Next week (Jan 17 onwards)

Northerly winds and more Northerly winds will be the major fly in the ointment for most spots during the first half of next week. A trough lingers off the Central NSW Coast through the early to middle part of next week, with a strong high pressure ridge building in underneath the trough. Ordinarily this change would work it’s way northwards bringing a S’ly change to the region but the stalled trough essentially “traps” the S’ly change and prevents it from reaching the sub-tropics.

That will see N’ly winds extending right through to mid next week for most of the region. 

Strong pulses of E/SE swell generated by the slow moving remnants of ex TC Cody make landfall Mon and Tuesday. Size in the 6ft+ range, 6-8ft across exposed breaks is expected. Again, finding spots handling the size and N’ly winds will be a problem.

Winds are likely to be lighter in SEQLD than NENSW through Mon and Tues which may allow a few more exposed beachbreaks to be utilised if you can find somewhere handling the size.

Wed does offer the chance of respite on the Mid North Coast. There is model divergence about where the trough axis is located which will be crucial in deterring local winds. EC has the trough axis located on the Mid North Coast with S to SE winds extending up to that area. 

GFS has the trough axis stalled on the Sydney coast, with areas of NE wind feeding into the trough extending through the f/fast region. Stay tuned for Mondays f/cast and we’ll finesse that wind f/cast. Size will be on the way down through Wed, with early 4-5ft surf easing back into the 3ft range during the day.

Into the end of next week and the stalled trough finally breaks down with a dominant high moving into the Tasman rebuilding a ridge along the sub-tropical coast. Because the stalled trough has delayed the ridge it’ll be “mature” when it arrives, bringing a straight E’ly flow, slightly more E/SE in SEQLD. 

E/SE winds associated with the high will see a broad windfield of 25knot winds develop and retrograde towards the QLD coast later Thurs, which is expected to see short range SE/ESE swell building into Fri and next weekend.

That spells another round of surf with winds more favourable for the Points. At this early stage size looks to be in the 3-4ft range.

Longer term and there’s more action in the South Pacific next week. Models are divergent with GFS suggesting an intense gale force low in Tongan longitudes through next week, with a long range E swell on track for later next weekend.

EC has a much more modest but proximate E’ly flow which suggests a maintenance of small E swell.  EC is also suggesting another tropical depression and possible cyclone in the Fiji area later next week. 

We’ll flag these for now and come back Mon and see how the long range is shaping up. Plenty in there short term to focus on for now.

Seeya Mon and have a great weekend!