TC Cody drifting through South Pacific towards New Zealand brings multiple pulses of E to E/SE swell over the coming days

Steve Shearer picture
Steve Shearer (freeride76)

South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed Jan12)

SEQLD/NENSW Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

  • E swell muscling up Thurs from TC Cody with SE winds, lighter Thurs AM
  • Plenty more E swell Fri into Sat with light winds Fri, tending NE on Sat. Light NW winds possible Sat AM
  • More E swell, rebuilding from the E/SE Sun, with N'ly winds, lighter in SEQLD
  • Strong E/SE swell Mon, pulsing again Tues with N'ly winds, dropping out Tues in SEQLD
  • Short range S to SE swell lilkely from Thurs into next weekend
  • Still watching the tropics for potential long range E swell and another TC near Fiji

Recap

E’ly swell picked up yesterday into the 3-4ft range, with some larger surf reported on the Tweed Coast. Winds were generally light/mod E to E/SE which meant scrappy but surfable conditions, especially on the Points. Lighter SE winds today have provided clean waves across the Points and some adjacent beaches with around 3ft of swell, building into the 3-4ft range as the tide dropped. Plenty more E swell is on the menu for the f/cast period. 

Worth it? 

This week (Jan 12-14)

Current ASCAT (satellite windspeed) passes show a healthy fetch of E’ly winds flanking TC Cody as drifts south/south-east of the area between Fiji and New Caledonia towards the North Island. Compared to model forecasts Monday strongest winds were still slightly in the swell shadow of the South Pacific Islands which has meant a slightly sleepy start to this swell event. 

A weak ridge along the sub-tropical coast extending up into tropical QLD is generating a light/mod SE flow across the region, a bit lighter than Mondays f/cast expectations and those winds continue into the end of the working week when they start to tend E/NE as a trough system approaches from the W.

Short term and tomorrow looks good wind-wise for the Points with a residual light/mod SE’ly to E/SE’ly flow, possibly light SW inshore early on the Southern Gold Coast.  

A muscling upon is expected through the morning as longer period E’ly swell fills in. That should see 3-4ft sets through the morning (tidally affected) before stronger 4-5ft sets fill in through the a’noon. Some exposed breaks on the Tweed Coast may see 6ft sets from this pulse.

Fri morning looks great for conditions with a light/variable flow, most likely SW on the Gold Coast, light SE elsewhere and continuing 11-13second period E swell with 4-5ft sets. It will be pulsey and tidally affected so keep that in mind. By the a’noon winds will tend more E/NE, NE south of Byron so the Points will get scuffed up. It’s likely windspeeds will be under 15 knots so if you can tolerate some bump it’ll remain surfable.

This weekend (Jan 15 - 16)

E swell from TC Cody (possibly ex TC by this stage) continues into Sat at moderate levels , likely 3-4ft, slowly easing through the day and into Sun morning. Winds look great for the beachies Sat morning if you can find a bank handling the swell. Expect light W/NW to NW winds before they track around to the NE and freshen.

N’ly winds will be with us again on Sun, likely weaker in SEQLD and stronger south of Yamba. An intensification of TC Cody is expected later Fri into Sat as it approaches the North Island and undergoes extra-tropical transition (see below) and this is expected to generate a stronger pulse of E-E/SE swell filling in Sun. Surf should rebuild into the 3-5ft range, possibly with some 6ft+ sets at swell magnets through the a’noon. Surfable spots will be at a premium with N’ly winds.

Next week (Jan 17 onwards)

Plenty of swell to  start to the new week as strong E-E/SE swell holds in the 6ft range Mon, possibly 6ft+ at exposed breaks ,slowly backing down into the 4-5ft+ range before another pulse of E/SE swell lifts wave heights back into the 3-5ft+ range Tuesday. The problem will be N’ly winds which are expected to remain fresh and gusty both days, albeit lighter in SEQLD then NENSW. That will place backbeaches handling the swell at a premium so spot selection is going to be tricky. 

By Wed next week we should see a S’ly change of some description working it’s way north, as a trough moving in advance of another high pressure ridge enters the chat. Surf will be on the ease, with leftover energy from the E/SE in the 3ft range, becoming more inconsistent as the day goes on. N’ly winds ahead of the change and we’ll finesse the timing on Fri, it’s too far out now to have any confidence on wind change.

Later next week a strong high moves into the Lower Tasman and with an angular trough expected along the leading edge of the high a fair coverage of SE winds is expected to develop. That should see short range S to SE swell build into late next week, but with such a long lead time confidence is extremely low on the details. 

A long E’ly fetch in the South Pacific through the mid-latter part of next week is a possible source of long range E swell  but at this stage the fetch moves away from us at about the same rate it intensifies, suggesting only a few stray 2-3ft sets sometime in the week beginning 24/1.

 There’s some model suggestion of a new tropical low, possibly forming between Vanuatu and Fiji next week,  with potential to undergo cyclogenesis,so we’ll keep eyes on that and update Fri.

Check back then for the latest update.

 

Comments

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Wednesday, 12 Jan 2022 at 2:58pm

We'll see how the track shapes up on Fri, moving slowly S now.
Might be an upgrade in size late Sun, early Mon.

Winds remain a problem.

crustylapel's picture
crustylapel's picture
crustylapel Wednesday, 12 Jan 2022 at 3:09pm

What are your thoughts on swell Size for MNC Thurs / Fri?

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Wednesday, 12 Jan 2022 at 3:12pm

Not much difference across the region. It's slightly better aimed further north, maybe a foot smaller Thurs, same size Fri.

crustylapel's picture
crustylapel's picture
crustylapel Wednesday, 12 Jan 2022 at 3:56pm

Thanks

Tristan Goose's picture
Tristan Goose's picture
Tristan Goose Wednesday, 12 Jan 2022 at 3:58pm

Got smoked on a sc reef this morning and tore my back to shreds. Nothing worse than injuring yourself on the first day of the swell

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Wednesday, 12 Jan 2022 at 4:11pm

Southern SC?

Been done up there.

Tristan Goose's picture
Tristan Goose's picture
Tristan Goose Wednesday, 12 Jan 2022 at 8:23pm

Nah one of the slabs further up the point from pt Cartwright

Tristan Goose's picture
Tristan Goose's picture
Tristan Goose Wednesday, 12 Jan 2022 at 8:32pm

Anyone know how long roughly it’s best to stay out of the water after reef cuts? Or any signs in the healing process to signal it’s okay to surf again? It’s fairly deep but not stitches deep.

burleigh's picture
burleigh's picture
burleigh Wednesday, 12 Jan 2022 at 8:40pm

impossible to say without seeing it, and even then we're most likely not doctors.
You can use the indo rule, if you're there for 2 weeks, surf with them and heal when u get home but if you're there for longer, best to get on-top of them ASAP.

richard187's picture
richard187's picture
richard187 Wednesday, 12 Jan 2022 at 8:47pm

If it's not too bad. There's stuff called Chinese medicine you might be able to find. In a red box (Google Chinese medicine Indo reef cuts) Apply this after every surf religiously and it works, and you can surf untill waves go flat.

Luke02's picture
Luke02's picture
Luke02 Thursday, 13 Jan 2022 at 3:56pm

That Chinese medicine is gold! Got smoked at Nias years back and the Chinese medicine fixed it right up, Miss the burn of applying that in the warungs at Bingin after a low tide work out!

Jiiimmy's picture
Jiiimmy's picture
Jiiimmy Thursday, 13 Jan 2022 at 12:03am

I’m really sorry mate. But if you’re asking that on a surf forum. And actually asking yourself that. I’d be inclined to take up knitting

Sprout's picture
Sprout's picture
Sprout Thursday, 13 Jan 2022 at 9:09am

Rock on.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Wednesday, 12 Jan 2022 at 3:58pm

Nice satellite imagery from BOM..

gingeryeti's picture
gingeryeti's picture
gingeryeti Wednesday, 12 Jan 2022 at 5:36pm

Expect light W/NW to NEW winds...

Those North East West winds are epic.

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Wednesday, 12 Jan 2022 at 6:19pm

hahahaha.
fixed

Surfalot67's picture
Surfalot67's picture
Surfalot67 Thursday, 13 Jan 2022 at 8:46am

Def kicked overnight. Weirdly looks smaller at Noosa and The Pass though

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Thursday, 13 Jan 2022 at 9:49am

Deceptive because of wide sand at Pass.

Also now breaking on wide sand (storm bar) outside Snapper/Little Marley.

tiger's picture
tiger's picture
tiger Thursday, 13 Jan 2022 at 9:59am

Very solid where I am on the MNC. Plenty of underwater cartwheel practice this morning.

Ben Harding's picture
Ben Harding's picture
Ben Harding Thursday, 13 Jan 2022 at 10:12am

Lol, you're not wrong. GC beachy was a handful this morn. Bit straight unfortunately. Banks handling direction much better the last couple days than today

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Thursday, 13 Jan 2022 at 10:59am

How big, Tiger?

tiger's picture
tiger's picture
tiger Thursday, 13 Jan 2022 at 12:17pm

What I'd call it 6'+ Ben.

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin Thursday, 13 Jan 2022 at 5:07pm

Was a fair bit bigger than that at some spots.

Fucken cooked now.

cam.jw's picture
cam.jw's picture
cam.jw Thursday, 13 Jan 2022 at 10:09am

There is absolutely no way the Sunshine Coast is 6-8ft. Did your reporter get on the mushrooms between his dawn report and mid morning report?

Plasticspastic's picture
Plasticspastic's picture
Plasticspastic Thursday, 13 Jan 2022 at 11:00am

probably did some underwater cartwheeling. that always bumps up the size for me..

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Thursday, 13 Jan 2022 at 2:01pm

From our reporter Chris..

"It was pretty big this morning with the high tide about it has backed off a lot with the tide pulling away though it's really unstable and quite dangerous across all open beaches definitely 6 foot waves coming through"

Min laden's picture
Min laden's picture
Min laden Thursday, 13 Jan 2022 at 5:36pm

I've always been perplexed with this clowns erratic reporting, swellnet needs this rookie off the payroll, is he a brizzo that blew in with a southerly buster??

boogiefever's picture
boogiefever's picture
boogiefever Friday, 14 Jan 2022 at 1:42pm

6-8 yesterday...
Easy 12-14 today. Tomorrow could be 24-30 ft!!!!
Won't somebody think of the children!!!!!

richard187's picture
richard187's picture
richard187 Thursday, 13 Jan 2022 at 10:57am

Was actually quite solid this morning. Felt like 15/16 seconds

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Thursday, 13 Jan 2022 at 11:00am

Looks about 6ft on the Tweed this morning. Lotta water moving around.

dangerouskook2000's picture
dangerouskook2000's picture
dangerouskook2000 Thursday, 13 Jan 2022 at 2:35pm

Yeh mate. I’ll put my left nut on the line and say it was 8-10 on the sets. I got flogged out there and was definitely undergunned on my 7’6”. If it stays the same size I’m heading to cooly with the 9’0 along with every other kook.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Thursday, 13 Jan 2022 at 11:08am

Assume the sweep must be a factor, but it's surprising that there's no-one out at the top end of the Pass at all. Looks a lot better than y'day.




Surfalot67's picture
Surfalot67's picture
Surfalot67 Thursday, 13 Jan 2022 at 12:35pm

Whoa that looks way more organized than yesterday. Any thoughts on why this swell seems so lumpy and broken up? Its from a huge distance away and a long period so thought it would be way more lined up than this. Kirra this morning was all over the place, big random lumps coming back at everyone and most crew washed down to North Kirra and a long walk back.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Thursday, 13 Jan 2022 at 1:37pm

That'd be the lower-period swell in the mix as shown on the spectral analysis. Lots of noise mixed with the longer period energy.

Down here we just have the groundswell and it's super lined up and straight with flatness between..

Surfalot67's picture
Surfalot67's picture
Surfalot67 Friday, 14 Jan 2022 at 8:08am

Thanks Craig, I can see that now. Today looks a little smaller but much straighter up here

More tubes please's picture
More tubes please's picture
More tubes please Thursday, 13 Jan 2022 at 2:34pm

Yep, ‘‘twas a mean current at the point. My arms are noodled.

joesydney's picture
joesydney's picture
joesydney Friday, 14 Jan 2022 at 12:06am

Nope no sweep - just mellow crowds spread out and plenty of waves for everyone, super fun sessions.

stunet's picture
stunet's picture
stunet Thursday, 13 Jan 2022 at 11:23am

Dawn session at Rainbow into Greeny looking good:

crg's picture
crg's picture
crg Thursday, 13 Jan 2022 at 12:22pm

Yep...swell punching overs down here too

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Thursday, 13 Jan 2022 at 2:35pm

'bout 4-5ft here but a bit sleepy.

Looks very soft because all the banks have been given a haircut or pushed wide so lots of mushburgers.

Nowhere really doing it.

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin Thursday, 13 Jan 2022 at 5:10pm

4-5 feet ?

What!?!?

kaiser's picture
kaiser's picture
kaiser Thursday, 13 Jan 2022 at 5:53pm

Don’t blow his cover. He’s basically wiped between Tweed and Yamba off the map. Nothing happens there any more. Move along…

Curious to see how the southerly winds and swells are extrapolated from autumn onwards

AndyM's picture
AndyM's picture
AndyM Thursday, 13 Jan 2022 at 3:00pm

Handful of takers at the local, nothing flash though unless you luck into a corner but it's all sections and very few walls.
Heaps of push when the sets double up further down the point.
Busted a fin coming in but you pay the piper at some stage during an easterly swell.

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Thursday, 13 Jan 2022 at 3:05pm

yeah I watched dangerous D for a while and he got nothing much; that was a good indicator of how it was.

AndyM's picture
AndyM's picture
AndyM Thursday, 13 Jan 2022 at 3:08pm

He's just getting over Corona but yeah I don't think that was an excuse.
He was on a 7'3" as well.

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Thursday, 13 Jan 2022 at 3:13pm

Damn.

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Thursday, 13 Jan 2022 at 3:16pm

TC Cody expected to undergo an extra-tropical transition over the next 12-24 hrs with gales in SE and SW quadrants increasing in size.

-frothmonster-'s picture
-frothmonster-'s picture
-frothmonster- Thursday, 13 Jan 2022 at 5:04pm

That sounds favourable?

Rockethut's picture
Rockethut's picture
Rockethut Thursday, 13 Jan 2022 at 5:12pm

So far this swell is as bad as the last one. Windy as hell and waves have no sections. Swell is broken up and shit.

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Thursday, 13 Jan 2022 at 6:07pm

Had another long look at a good stretch of coast.

I'll call it a strong 3-5ft.

a very occasional 6ft set.

Lots of water moving around and there's tons of energy but it's not that big.

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Friday, 14 Jan 2022 at 9:01am

Pretty wobbly 4ft here.

Offshore wind but no real bathymetry handling the morning high tide.

boogiefever's picture
boogiefever's picture
boogiefever Friday, 14 Jan 2022 at 10:04am

Noosa on the pump!!!! Call in sick n get on it peoples...